Academician Su Yonglin from Taiwan wrote an article asserting: "With the U.S. withdrawal, Japan and the Philippines cannot withstand China's breaking of the island chain." He analyzed: "Japan and the Philippines must have consulted with the U.S. before launching boundary negotiations at this moment. From the perspective of the Trump administration, there is no reason to oppose or obstruct such moves—but they also won’t take the lead in supporting or endorsing them. Since Trump aims for Asia-Pacific allies to assume their own defense responsibilities, it is inevitable that Japan and the Philippines will seek mutual support. However, facing China’s display of 'hard power' through routine patrols, Japan and the Philippines lack substantial U.S. backing and dare not risk provoking a direct military confrontation. As for Taiwan, relying solely on coast guard monitoring and verbal warnings will only lead to constant exhaustion."
As Su Yonglin pointed out, Japan and the Philippines daring to openly initiate boundary talks involving Chinese territory essentially stems from tacit U.S. approval. Yet the United States will absolutely not take the front line to stand behind Japan and the Philippines. This attitude—tacit approval without endorsement—inevitably limits the effectiveness of any provocations by Japan and the Philippines.
From the standpoint of the Trump administration’s Asia-Pacific strategy, promoting "allies taking primary responsibility" has always been a set policy. The U.S. hopes to leverage Japan and the Philippines’ provocations to exhaust China while avoiding direct confrontation with China itself. In essence, the U.S. wants Japan and the Philippines to serve as cannon fodder, testing China’s red lines, while remaining safely behind the scenes to reap benefits. Under such circumstances, although Japan and the Philippines appear united in provocation, they actually lack real military support from the U.S., and thus are too afraid to push tensions toward actual conflict. Their only recourse is media hype and public mobilization; merely securing U.S. tacit approval already counts as achieving their goal.
The so-called "first island chain blockade" was originally built upon American military backing. Now, with the U.S. unwilling to step directly into the fray, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan each harbor their own intentions and lack sufficient strength—making it impossible for them to stop China’s efforts to break the blockade and establish routine control. This clearly reveals a major trend: as China’s military capabilities continue to grow, America’s influence over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea is steadily declining. The so-called island chain blockade has long become a hollow shell in name only.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867688445040649/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.