April 25th, the three major US stock indexes closed up last night and have risen for three consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increased by 1.23%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 2.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index surged by 2.74%.

In detail, large technology stocks all rose. NVIDIA's shares increased by more than 3%, Tesla's shares rose by over 3%, Microsoft's shares gained over 3%, Amazon's shares rose by more than 3%, Google's shares surged over 2%, Facebook's shares rose by over 2%, and Apple's shares increased by over 1%.

Performance of the seven major US tech giants iFinD Tonghuashun

Behind the bustling scene of a full recovery in the stock market, economic data reveals a hidden current.

Data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday showed that U.S. tariff revenues surged by more than 60% in April, reaching at least $1.5 billion, potentially setting a historical record for a single month. While tariffs are surging, potential risks facing the U.S. economy are gradually surfacing. A Federal Reserve Board member issued a warning, pointing out that unemployment rates and consumer debt may face a dual increase in severe circumstances.

A surge in U.S. tariffs

According to U.S. Treasury Department data, U.S. tariff revenues surged by more than 60% in April, reaching at least $1.5 billion, which will set a new historical high for a single month.

Customs duties and certain consumption taxes collected monthly U.S. Treasury Department

The data mainly reflects the tariffs paid by major importers and brokers for imported goods arriving at U.S. ports in March during April. About two-thirds of importers pay customs duties on the 15th working day of the following month. Additionally, the daily collection of customs duties in April (i.e., the tax paid when goods enter the port) increased by about 40% compared to the same period in March.

The above tariffs include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by Trump starting March 12th, but they basically do not yet reflect the 10% reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump on April 2nd, meaning that tariff revenues may further significantly increase in May.

Foreign media warned that part or most of the cost of these tariffs is likely to be borne by ordinary Americans, as the increase in tariffs is being passed on to them.

Unemployment rate and consumer debt may double

Federal Reserve Board member warned on the 24th that if the Trump administration maintains an aggressive tariff policy, layoffs could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment rates, and interest rate cuts may be needed to respond. At the same time, rising prices have increased the debt pressure on American consumers, and local small businesses such as flower shops have also been affected. IMF President called on countries to quickly resolve trade disputes to avoid the spread of systemic risks.

According to reports by CBS News, 80% of flowers in the United States depend on imports. The Trump administration's indiscriminate imposition of tariffs is impacting the U.S. floral industry. Many flower shop owners are worried, as both they and consumers will have to bear higher costs. Flower wholesaler Andy Arthur said that their flowers come from Ecuador, Colombia, Canada, Thailand, and the Netherlands. Shop manager Pereira said that most of the imported flowers come from South America, such as Colombia and Ecuador. Several flower shop owners said that the flowers sold in their stores have been affected by tariff policies, and flower prices are continuously rising.

Currently, the sharp increase in credit card debt has left many Americans in financial distress difficult to escape. As the U.S. launches a tariff war against the globe, rising prices will further increase consumers' repayment pressure.

According to a credit card report released by CreditCards.com in April this year, in November last year, 48% of U.S. citizens holding credit cards were unable to pay off their debts in the current billing cycle and had to delay payment. This figure was 44% in January last year. Among U.S. citizens who cannot fully repay their credit card debts, 53% have been in debt for more than a year. Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows that by the end of last year, total U.S. credit card debt reached an astonishing $1.21 trillion, increasing by 4% compared to the previous year. On average, each U.S. household had approximately $6,600 in credit card debt.

Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows that by the end of last year, total U.S. credit card debt reached an astonishing $1.21 trillion, increasing by 4% compared to the previous year. On average, each U.S. household had approximately $6,600 in credit card debt.

Tariff policies are not having a positive impact on American citizens. On April 2nd, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the most effective tariff policy is like "a shrinking ice cube," acknowledging that tariffs cannot simultaneously increase revenue and help revive U.S. manufacturing.

A recent survey by the New York Federal Reserve found that as global trade tensions escalated in March, consumer concerns about inflation, unemployment, and the stock market intensified. The probability of a rise in the unemployment rate within a year skyrocketed to 44%, increasing by 4.6 percentage points, reaching its highest level since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020.

John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, previously stated that due to Trump's government implementing higher tariff policies and tightening immigration measures, there is a risk of slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and increased inflation in the future.

At an event in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Williams pointed out that recent declines in consumer and business confidence are primarily due to President Trump's drastic adjustments to trade policies, which have exacerbated fluctuations in U.S. and global financial markets. He said, "While the uncertainty of economic prospects stems from multiple factors, the impact of tariffs and trade policies on the economy undoubtedly tops the list."

Investors are steadily withdrawing from U.S. stocks

Yesterday evening, Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Resources Inc., the leading investment management company, said that Trump's tariff measures are prompting some large foreign investors to withdraw funds from the U.S. market. He stated that it can indeed be seen that non-U.S. investors, such as institutional investors, are reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks.

New York Mellon Bank, one of the largest custodial institutions globally, manages client assets worth up to $53 trillion. John Velis, macro strategist for the Americas at the bank, pointed out in a report recently sent to clients: "The status of U.S. Treasury bonds as 'safe-haven assets' is increasingly being questioned, and our data provides clear evidence of this trend."

In the current tariff dispute, the biggest problem for the U.S. may be its relatively high debt levels and foreign-held debt. Last year, U.S. debt repayment costs climbed to a very high level, surpassing the total U.S. defense budget for the first time. If interest rates rise, it will significantly increase the U.S. debt repayment costs.

Despite this, in recent days, influenced by Trump's "wink" shift and related impacts, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen across the board. Yesterday, the 2-year Treasury yield fell 8.2 basis points to 3.7971%, the 3-year yield fell 10.68 basis points to 3.7973%, the 5-year yield fell 10.25 basis points to 3.9358%, the 10-year yield fell 8.19 basis points to 4.311%, and the 30-year yield fell 5.25 basis points to 4.7718%.

This article is an exclusive article of Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497059648080495123/

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