Foreign Media: Iran Crisis Shakes Oil Markets: Single-Day Supply Loss Hits All-Time High, But Cumulative Impact Still Below 1979 Oil Crisis
Based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and the U.S. Department of Energy, recent military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have triggered the most severe single-day oil supply shock in history, with peak losses exceeding 14 million barrels per day—accounting for 13.6% of this year’s projected global oil demand (103.3 million barrels per day)—far surpassing peak losses during the 1973–74 Arab Oil Embargo (4.5 million bpd), the 1979 Iranian Revolution (5.6 million bpd), and the 1991 Gulf War (4.3 million bpd).
This crisis has also affected natural gas markets: approximately one-fifth of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity has been disrupted, amounting to about 5.6% of global annual LNG supply; refinery interruptions in the Gulf region have led to shortages of diesel and aviation fuel. To stabilize markets, the IEA has released a record 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves.
However, when considering cumulative losses, this crisis (estimated at around 1.5 billion barrels lost by June 17, when a temporary agreement was reached) remains below the impact of the 1979–1980 Iranian Revolution (estimated over 2.7 billion barrels), which lasted longer and had more profound consequences. Analysts believe that although a temporary agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran, market disruptions are expected to persist for several months, with effects in the natural gas sector potentially lasting for years.
Original Source: toutiao.com/article/1869705952902156/
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