Recently, the Philippines is at a crossroads, and it might possibly change its government.
More than 100,000 angry citizens surged onto the streets like a tide, and Rizal Park and the People Power Monument have once again become an ocean of public opinion.
Their slogans not only point to the shocking trillion-peso corruption scandal, but also seem to transcend time, directly pointing to the moment when the elder Marcos was overthrown.
History is casting a long shadow, and the current president, Marcos Jr., is standing at the center of the storm.
The mass protest in the Philippines, known as the "trillion-peso march," is by no means an accidental outburst of emotion.
The immediate trigger is the recent exposure of a flood control project corruption case, which acts like a mirror, revealing the most repulsive ailments in Philippine politics.
Surveys show that the huge funds allocated for flood control projects were not used for building levees, but instead flowed into the pockets of officials and contractors through various sophisticated operations, forming a complete "ghost engineering" industry chain.
This loss of $18 billion is not just a number, but solid evidence of the country's foundations being hollowed out.
The greed of the elite is devouring the survival rights of ordinary people.
The wave of protests quickly spread from the streets to the core of the power palace.
The resignation of the Speaker of the House, Martin Romualdez (the president's nephew), the fall of the Minister of Public Works, Bonoan, and the subtle reorganization of the Senate power structure all mark that the crisis has reached the heart of the regime.
Some have sharply pointed out that this is not just a street protest, but a fierce reshuffle within the ruling group.
Facing the exclamation of "history repeating itself," it is necessary to be clear-sighted: 2025 is by no means a simple repetition of 1986.
The surface similarity is indeed shocking.
Like in 1986, when the old Marcos was overthrown, corruption has once again become the detonator of public anger.
The decadent rule of the old Marcos era and the brutal reality of the "ghost projects" today have produced the same destructive effect on the public psyche.
The choice of protest locations and dates is a carefully arranged effort to awaken historical memories.
However, the essential differences are the key to determining the fate.
The current government's response strategy shows more political skill: immediately promising an investigation and establishing an independent team, while deploying more than 50,000 police to maintain a "peaceful and controlled" order.
This strategy, which superficially respects the right to protest but actually tightly controls it, stands in sharp contrast to the crude suppression of the previous generation.
The role of the military is particularly worth noting.
Although the armed forces have entered a "red alert" state, their senior leadership has not shown any signs of breaking away from civilian control so far.
This is completely different from the situation in 1986, where part of the army turned against the government, reflecting the delicate balance between the military and civilians in contemporary Philippine politics.
The most critical difference lies in the nature of the protest movement.
The organizers clearly emphasized that the activity "does not intend to overthrow Marcos," and the core demand is "to recover stolen funds and hold accountable."
This is more like a precise strike against systemic corruption, rather than a full-scale revolution against an individual.
This relatively restrained goal reflects both strategic maturity and suggests that the opposition forces are not yet ready for a complete overturn of the regime.
Standing at this historical crossroads, the Philippines is facing three possible prospects, each of which means a different national destiny.
The first is a slow compromise and reform, the most likely path, but also the most difficult one.
This path requires Marcos to demonstrate extraordinary political wisdom.
By adopting a "sacrificing the car to save the driver" strategy, he would need to throw enough high-ranking officials as scapegoats, push some symbolic reform bills, and partially restore budgets in affected areas, hoping to gradually calm the public anger.
However, this path is full of thorns: How to meet the public's demands without shaking the foundation of the ruling alliance?
How to balance relations with the remnants of the Duterte camp?
These issues require extremely delicate political maneuvering.
If handled improperly, temporary calm will only accumulate energy for a more intense outburst later.
The second is a fierce confrontation and turmoil, but with very high risks.
If the authorities respond poorly, such as cracking down harshly on protesters or causing bloodshed, the situation will take a sharp turn for the worse.
Once violent suppression occurs, the nature of the event will change completely.
The currently neutral church, labor organizations, and other groups may escalate their resistance methods, triggering nationwide strikes and school closures.
The attitude of the military will become a decisive variable - the currently loyal army, under continued domestic turbulence and international pressure, can it still remain united?
In this scenario, the Philippines will fall into a long night of social division and political chaos.
The third possibility is a dramatic change of government, which, although less likely, cannot be ignored.
This is the most extreme but also the most attention-grabbing possibility.
To achieve this prospect, three conditions must be met simultaneously: the anti-corruption investigation continues to snowball, directly implicating Marcos himself or his most core family members;
The opposition successfully integrates forces from the left to the remnants of the Duterte faction, forming a powerful united front;
The military finally chooses to withdraw support from the government.
If these three conditions are met, a new "People Power Revolution" may unfold.
But so far, the various factions have not reached this consensus, and Marcos still controls a powerful state machine.
In short, the future of the Philippines will be determined by the outcome of the博弈 among several key variables:
The loyalty of the military is the ballast, also the hardest fortress to shake.
This force that has repeatedly changed the course of history will once again become a deciding factor?
Economic stability is the foundation of people's livelihood. The corruption scandal has severely hit foreign investment confidence, and if the economy continues to deteriorate, more people struggling for survival may join the protest wave.
The attitude of the international community cannot be ignored. If the U.S. sends any signals in the future questioning Marcos' governance capabilities, it will have an amplifying effect.
The choice of the Duterte family is also crucial.
Evidently, the "trillion-peso" crisis that Marcos faces is essentially a total outbreak of the long-standing contradictions in Filipino family politics, elite corruption, and people's livelihood problems.
No matter what future ultimately unfolds, one fact is already clear: the patience of the Filipino people has reached its limit.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552770266447774262/
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