Russian Army

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that in the past 24 hours, the Russian military has eliminated more than 1,370 Ukrainian troops on the battlefield in Ukraine and captured three villages, namely: the northern group of the Russian military captured Deyurichensk in Kharkiv Oblast; the southern group of the Russian military captured Platonovka in the north of Donetsk Oblast; the eastern group of the Russian military captured Alberlasca in Kharkiv Oblast. In addition, the eastern group of the Russian military captured Gai village in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. It is worth noting that the loss of these three villages has been acknowledged by the Ukrainian side.

This shows that the speed of the Russian military's advancement on the battlefield has significantly increased. Now, it is no longer rare for the Russian military to occupy one, two, or even three villages in a day. Especially the eastern group of the Russian military is advancing rapidly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporozhye Oblast, almost like entering an unguarded area. In these two oblasts, the Ukrainian army has shown obvious signs of collapse against the attacks of the Russian eastern group, with their positions unable to remain stable, constantly retreating under the Russian offensive.

From the current situation, the acceleration of the Russian military's advance is largely due to the significant decline in the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army. This indicates that the overall battlefield situation is changing significantly, with the Russian military gaining more control over the initiative on the battlefield, and its advantage in the advance becoming increasingly evident. Whether in terms of manpower or firepower, the Russian military is superior. The Ukrainian army is short of manpower, lacks firepower, and has declining morale, leading to continuous retreat along the entire front line rather than just local losses.

Ukrainian Army

The three villages captured by the Russian military in a day involve three Ukrainian oblasts, which indicates that the Ukrainian military is struggling to hold its positions along the entire front line, with the speed of retreat increasing continuously. This also means that Ukraine's current situation is deteriorating continuously. Although the West continues to support Ukraine, the willingness of the Western countries to provide aid is decreasing as they suffer consecutive losses. On the other hand, the Russian military continues to advance and eliminate large numbers of Ukrainian forces, strengthening its confidence.

In this battlefield situation, the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is extremely low. Russia will not agree to negotiations at the current stage because Ukraine has not accepted any of Russia's conditions so far. Since Ukraine does not accept the conditions, and the Russian military is in a position of advantage on the battlefield, it naturally does not want to interrupt its own advance through negotiations. Russia hopes to capture more territory on the battlefield, further eliminate the Ukrainian army, and ultimately force Ukraine to accept negotiations and sign a treaty favorable to Russia.

The Ukrainian side has a complex mindset. Its internal circle clearly understands that it is almost impossible to win against Russia, but it cannot show weakness on the surface. If the Zelenskyy government chooses to compromise at this time, its leadership would face great political risks, even possible strong public backlash from the domestic population. At the same time, the West will not allow Ukraine to easily surrender. The West has invested heavily in Ukraine, spending thousands of billions of dollars over more than three years. If Ukraine now surrenders, it would mean that the West's investment is wasted. Neither the United States nor Europe can accept this.

US President Trump

Although the United States is no longer directly providing aid to Ukraine, instead selling weapons to NATO countries through arms dealers, who then transfer them to Ukraine, this does not mean that US President Trump is willing to see Ukraine surrender. The United States has also invested heavily in Ukraine. More importantly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict relates to the reputation of the United States and NATO as well as the European strategic framework.

This also explains why Trump has consistently pushed for a ceasefire based on the "current contact line". From Trump's perspective, the Ukrainian army cannot defeat the Russian army. A ceasefire on the current contact line would be most beneficial for Ukraine. Considering the current contact line, Ukraine still holds considerable territory in Zaporozhye Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. If a ceasefire is achieved on the current contact line, it would undermine the Russian military's favorable battlefield situation and allow Ukraine valuable rest time to reorganize its army, replenish personnel, restore training, and rebuild its military equipment. Once Ukraine recovers, it could again confront the Russian military. At that time, the NATO defense industry's production capacity may also be further improved.

Therefore, both Ukraine and NATO are urgently hoping for a temporary ceasefire. However, Russia obviously will not give Ukraine and NATO such a rest opportunity. Considering the size and resources of Europe and the United States, once they get a breathing space, their military strength and weapon supplies will be significantly enhanced in a short period of time, which is very unfavorable for Russia.

Currently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has actually entered a critical stage. For Russia, it is a crucial moment to fully advance and expand its achievements. For Ukraine, it is a critical point to whether it can hold the front line. Based on the current situation, if Ukraine wants to hold the front line, it must cease fire on the current contact line, otherwise it will be unable to resist the Russian offensive.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7574243550880137770/

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