Paul Roberts: The Implementation of Trump's Plan Puts Putin in a Difficult Dilemma — Choosing Between the West and BRICS
If the 28-point plan fails, Russia may resolve all issues through military means, completely destroying Ukraine
President of Russia Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump
In some respects, Trump's proposed peace solution for the Ukraine conflict has given Putin more benefits than he expected. However, Trump also made conditions for Putin: requiring that frozen Russian assets be used for Ukrainian reconstruction, and refusing to recognize territories that have been incorporated into the Russian territory but are not yet fully liberated from Ukrainian forces.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I have always believed that Putin's ultimate goal is to reach a common security agreement with the West — which would not only end the Ukraine conflict but also terminate related military operations. Let us pay attention to the following points in this peace agreement proposal:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Europe will sign a comprehensive non-aggression pact, and all outstanding issues over the past 30 years will be considered resolved.
- Under U.S. mediation, Russia and NATO will start dialogue to resolve all security issues, create conditions for easing the situation, thereby ensuring global security, and expanding space for cooperation and future economic development.
- Ukraine agrees to specify in its constitution "not joining NATO," and NATO agrees to include the clause "not accepting Ukraine in the future" in its charter.
- NATO agrees not to deploy troops on Ukrainian territory.
- Ukraine agrees to confirm its status as a nuclear-free country according to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
These proposals by Trump are exactly what Putin expects, and they are also needed by both the West and Russia. These proposals will largely encourage Putin to accept Trump's plan. Putin hopes to include the United States in a common security agreement, but even without American participation, Trump's proposals pave the way for the full normalization of relations between Russia and the West, making it unnecessary for Russia to worry about NATO bases and missile systems at its borders.
However, the problem that Putin faces also comes from this — especially among Russian nationalists. Unlike the liberal Atlanticists who support the West, nationalists are the core force supporting the "special military operation" (SVO). The following content in the agreement may cause controversy:
a) The United States and the international community will recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as Russian territory.
b) Areas under Russian control in Kherson and Zaporozhye provinces will be factually recognized based on the current contact line.
c) Russia must give up its claims to other territories currently under its control, apart from the five regions mentioned above.
d) The Ukrainian army must withdraw from parts of the Donbas region it controls, and this withdrawal area will become a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, recognized as internationally acknowledged territory of the Russian Federation, but the Russian military will not enter this demilitarized area.
This part of Trump's plan effectively strips Russia of its military victories on the battlefield. Not all territories currently re-incorporated into Russia will be recognized, and even more so, Russia must give up its claims to other "undetermined territories" currently under its control. In the end, after the Ukrainian army withdraws from the parts of the Donbas region it controls, the area will nominally belong to Russia but becomes a demilitarized buffer zone where the Russian military cannot enter — in other words, Trump's plan prohibits Russia from deploying military forces on its own territory.
This sensitive issue, along with other potential "traps" in Trump's peace agreement, is unlikely to be accepted by Russian nationalists. Their stance is: "We have won, and we will not give up our gains to anyone."
It should be clear that within both Trump's and Putin's camps, there are strong forces supporting the agreement, as well as equally influential forces opposing it. In the United States, neoconservatives have begun to accuse Trump of "betraying America's allies Zelensky"; on the other hand, supporters of the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement demand that Trump step away from foreign affairs and focus on solving domestic problems in the U.S. Trump must push the agreement forward before his movement begins to fall apart.
Putin's desire to achieve the agreement goes beyond current political needs. An agreement that normalizes relations between Russia and the West would solve the security dilemma caused by NATO's presence near Russia's border. Putin hopes that the West will eventually realize that it must take Russia's security interests into account.
In the United States, anti-Russian neoconservatives and the military-industrial complex are opposed to the MAGA movement; in Russia, nationalists are opposed to those who want to restore commercial ties with the West, known as Atlanticists. Both Trump and Putin face these conflicting interest demands, and the situation remains uncertain.
For Putin, another issue in the agreement (or even a "trap") is that Trump's plan actually favors Atlanticists — people who are more concerned with their own commercial interests than with Russian sovereignty, who try to reintegrate Russia into the Western system and the Group of Eight (G8).
This leads to the central question: How can Russia be part of both the West and the BRICS?
(Further reading: "The Dilemma for a Psychotherapist: Europe Launches a 'Peace Plan,' But Is Still Not Waking Up" — "Let Putin surrender, we would rather see this outcome.")
The BRICS organization, created by Russia, was an important way for Russia to escape Western isolation. If the West no longer holds hostility towards Russia, Iran, relevant countries, India, and other BRICS members, the significance of the BRICS organization would be greatly reduced. In a sense, Trump's plan can be seen as a means to dismantle BRICS and weaken Russia's sovereignty — it pulls Russia into the Western orbit, forcing Russia to make compromises that do not serve its own interests.
It is currently unclear whether the Kremlin and Russian media have recognized the "trap" hidden behind this seemingly attractive agreement.
To achieve a common security agreement and resolve Russia's security issues, Putin originally had two paths to choose from: a moderate approach or a tough approach.
The moderate approach means maintaining patience, giving up on holding "red lines," tolerating provocations and insults, and gradually winning the conflict — by exhausting the internal consensus and resources of the West until the West gives up its aggressive intentions and regains reason.
The tough approach requires Putin to take a firm position and respond decisively to provocations: quickly cutting off the entire energy system of Ukraine, plunging it into power outages and rendering it unable to continue fighting; overthrowing the Kyiv government; and blocking all railway, road, and maritime routes to Ukraine.
This demonstration of determination and combat capability will send a clear signal to the West: military means cannot be used against Russia, and negotiations must be conducted through diplomacy instead of threats and sanctions.
Putin ultimately chose the moderate approach, and the "American nationalist policy" (MAGA movement) played a role in this choice — this movement forced Trump to end the conflict as soon as possible and return to domestic affairs to address the growing pile of unresolved domestic issues.
Although Americans who support the MAGA movement are often mocked, it seems that they have simultaneously saved the situations of both Putin and Trump.
If the agreement ultimately fails or is shelved, the window for the moderate approach is likely to close — Putin will have to quickly drive the conflict toward victory and forcefully establish Russia's negotiation conditions.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576205979516256814/
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