Foreign media recently reported that Indonesia plans to purchase 42 second-hand J-10 fighters in order to ensure rapid delivery and achieve combat capability, and it is expected that this news will be officially announced at the Jakarta Defense Exhibition opening on June 11.

It is worth noting that domestic Indonesian public opinion has expressed dissatisfaction with the import of "Rafale" fighters, suggesting the procurement of more cost-effective J-10Cs instead. Therefore, the current choice made by the Indonesian government has come as a surprise to many.

According to reports from the US defense website alert5, a source claims that Indonesia plans to purchase 42 second-hand J-10 fighters and may resume purchasing Russia's Su-35 fighters. These two transactions are expected to be officially announced during the Indonesia Jakarta Defense Expo and Forum opening from June 11 to 14.

The report also pointed out that these measures mark a significant shift in Indonesia's air force modernization strategy. Over the past decade, Indonesia has taken a winding path toward modernizing its fighter jets, reflecting the complex geopolitical pressures faced by Jakarta in balancing relations with competing great powers.

In 2015, Indonesia initially announced the purchase of 16 Su-35 fighters to replace aging F-5 squadrons. However, this plan was repeatedly delayed and altered until 2021 when it was abandoned, reportedly due to threats of sanctions from the United States, which forced the Indonesian authorities to change their decision.

Subsequently, in 2022, Indonesia signed a contract with Dassault Aviation of France to purchase "Rafale" fighters, with the total number eventually reaching 24, scheduled for delivery of the first batch in January 2026. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government also planned to purchase 12 second-hand Mirage 2000-5 fighters from Qatar as a temporary transition solution, but this transition plan was also abandoned.

Additionally, the Indonesian government maintained negotiations with the United States for the procurement of F-15EX fighters, with preliminary discussions targeting delivery in 2027. To this end, Indonesia's Defense Minister visited Boeing's production facility in St. Louis, Missouri in 2022. The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced in February 2022 that it might sell F-15EX and related equipment to Indonesia, with a value of up to $13.9 billion, subject to approval by the U.S. Congress. The F-15EX manufactured for Indonesia will be named F-15IDN.

Moreover, Indonesia joined South Korea's KF-21 fighter program and assumed part of the development investment. Despite the relatively smooth progress in the research and development and test flights of KF-21, the cooperation between the two sides has陷入困境. Due to numerous contradictions between South Korea and Indonesia regarding funding payments, technology transfers, strategic adjustments, etc., Indonesia has been downgraded from a "equal partner" in the KF-21 project to a "limited investor." Indonesia's original commitment to purchase 48 aircraft has also become difficult to fulfill due to financial issues.

Looking back at the above experiences, we can see that Indonesia places great importance on its fighter jet modernization projects and maintains introduction and cooperation with several countries including Russia, France, the United States, and South Korea. Among them, only the introduction of France's "Rafale" project has progressed smoothly; other introduction and cooperation projects have encountered various troubles to varying degrees.

However, after the "5.7" air battle between India and Pakistan earlier this year, the reputation of France's "Rafale" fighter jets was completely overshadowed by the J-10CE. Domestic Indonesian public opinion also caused a stir, expressing dissatisfaction with the introduction of "Rafale." Because the total price quoted for Indonesia to introduce 42 "Rafale" fighters is $8.1 billion, with an average unit price approaching $200 million, far exceeding the $60-70 million per unit for J-10CE.

For this reason, domestic Indonesian public opinion has turned its attention to the J-10CE fighter jets, believing that the aircraft has shown stronger combat capabilities than "Rafale" in the India-Pakistan conflict, while the price is only one-third of that of "Rafale." It can be said that the "5.7" air battle between India and Pakistan has dramatically disrupted the future landscape of the world fighter jet market, and Indonesia's fighter jet modernization strategy has also undergone a major transformation, which is just one reflection of this change.

However, the latest news from Indonesia indicates that they intend to purchase second-hand J-10 fighters, possibly including single-seat J-10A and dual-seat J-10S models. Both of these J-10 variants belong to older models without active phased array radar, cannot use PL-15 missiles, and have relatively outdated onboard equipment. So, why has the Indonesian government chosen second-hand J-10 fighters?

At present, Indonesia's demand for new fighter jets seems quite urgent. The costs of KF-21 and F-15EX are too high, and the delivery times are also uncertain. The market reputation of the "Rafale" fighter jets has fallen to rock bottom, and the prices are also unreasonable. Only the prices of J-10 and Su-35 are relatively reasonable. Moreover, purchasing second-hand J-10 can deliver quickly, rapidly filling the gap in Indonesia's air force combat capability.

I believe that if Indonesia really purchases second-hand J-10 fighters, there are still several questions to consider. First, will these second-hand J-10 fighters undergo modifications to install more advanced AESA radars and avionics equipment? But such modification work could delay delivery time, not necessarily faster than purchasing brand-new J-10C.

Second, while Indonesia procures J-10 fighters, it will still receive "Rafale" fighters after 2026. This means that J-10 and "Rafale" may be equipped simultaneously in the Indonesian Air Force, potentially creating dramatic scenarios.

Finally, if Indonesia introduces J-10 fighters, it will further exacerbate the "multi-national" phenomenon in its air force. In the future, there is a strong possibility that Chinese, Russian, French, American, and South Korean fighters will appear on the same stage. How these fighters will solve complex logistics support problems, cooperate in operations, and integrate into the same operational system is also a topic of concern. (Author: Tao Moujian)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509136489046688306/

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