Arrested for placing high-risk bets on prediction markets using classified information related to his involvement in an attempted kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. These markets have been shaken by numerous suspicious, anomalous bets—amounting to billions of dollars—during the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran.
Prosecutors allege that Sergeant Gannon Ken van Dyke placed approximately $32,000 in bets on Polymarket, profiting over $400,000 by wagering on Maduro's removal from power—information he obtained during the planning and execution of a raid in January.
According to a Department of Justice announcement, Van Dyke faces charges including wire fraud, commodity fraud, and illegal use of government information. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed a parallel lawsuit, while Polymarket stated it had self-flagged suspicious activity and is cooperating with the investigation.
This case is sparking broader scrutiny of prediction markets—platforms that turn wars and regime changes into tradable contracts—with Venezuela merely being the beginning.
During the U.S.-Israel confrontation with Iran, prediction markets and traditional financial markets saw a surge of suspicious bets timed with remarkable precision, involving airstrikes, ceasefire declarations, unexpected statements, and diplomatic shifts. According to The Guardian, traders placed over $1 billion in "perfect timing" bets—including an $850,000 wager just before U.S. strikes on Iran, and about $950 million in oil futures contracts hours before President Trump announced a ceasefire. AP reported that within days of the ceasefire announcement, prediction markets recorded over 41.3 million bets totaling more than $100 million.
Reporter: There are people betting on the Iran conflict—suspicions of insider trading. Are you concerned?
Trump: Unfortunately, the world has become a bit like a casino. I don’t like that idea in principle. But that’s how it is.
The Trump family’s ties to the industry have also come under scrutiny due to potential conflicts of interest. In a January report by The New York Times, Donald Trump Jr. served as a consultant to Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi, and invested in the former through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital.
On March 24—the day after the first five-day pause in President Trump’s original plan to strike Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure—White House officials were warned not to use inside information.
On Thursday, Trump downplayed the betting frenzy, saying “I’m not happy with any of this,” but added, “Unfortunately, the world has become a bit like a casino.”
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863332304631050/
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