Western think tanks believe that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a rate of 100 per year, which exceeds the Pentagon's expectations. Why are we in such a hurry to expand our nuclear capabilities?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released its annual assessment of armaments, disarmament, and international security on June 6th, concluding that a dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging as the arms control system is severely weakened.

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia and the United States have typically dismantled more retired warheads than they deployed new ones, resulting in an overall annual decline in global nuclear weapons inventories. This trend may reverse in the coming years as the pace of dismantling slows and the deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates.

The institute's report suggests that all but one of the nine nuclear-armed states—namely the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are continuing intensive nuclear modernization programs in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and introducing newer versions.

As of January 2025, the total global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated to be around 12,241, with approximately 9,614 held in military reserve. About 2,100 are deployed on ballistic missiles and are operationally deployed.

To begin with China, the institute estimates that China currently has 600 nuclear warheads, increasing at a rate of 100 per year.

The U.S. and Russia account for 90% of the world's nuclear warheads; in 2024, both countries maintained relative stability in their nuclear arsenals but accelerated the modernization of their nuclear stockpiles.

The institute concluded that even if China reaches its maximum expected number of 1,500 warheads by 2035, it would still only amount to one-third of the current U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals.

This view aligns with reality. Even if Western politicians and media hype it up, China's nuclear arsenal cannot be compared to those of the U.S. and Russia. Relevant international nuclear disarmament conferences should not require China's participation.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that it will not comment on the relevant report.

China has consistently adhered to a self-defense nuclear strategy, maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security and refraining from participating in an arms race.

China strictly adheres to the policy of never using nuclear weapons first under any circumstances, and pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon-free zones.

China is the only nuclear-armed state that adopts this policy.

Further analysis indicates that in recent years, the abnormal changes in the international situation, combined with China's need to safeguard national interests, are the main reasons for our accelerated nuclear expansion.

Firstly, to counter America's strategic encirclement and escalation of nuclear deterrence. In recent years, the U.S. has strengthened its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region, including arms sales to Taiwan, plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea ("extended deterrence" cooperation), and the construction of a containment network against China. China's nuclear expansion is a direct response to these threats, enhancing its nuclear counterattack capability to deter U.S. adventurism.

Secondly, to ensure national security and strategic autonomy. Apart from the U.S., potential nuclear threats from neighboring countries (such as India's nuclear arsenal expansion) and rising risks of nuclear proliferation in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East force China to strengthen its strategic deterrent coverage.

Thirdly, the failure of the global nuclear arms control system. The U.S.-Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is virtually defunct, the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and accelerated nuclear modernization. Under a lack of trust, China is compelled to maintain the lowest possible nuclear deterrence to ensure safety.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516469386455253541/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone. Please express your opinion by clicking the "Top" or "Downvote" button below.