Trump's return to the White House brought many prominent China "hawks" into the government. Due to a relative consensus between the two parties on taking a hard line against China, these "hawks" appointments may lead to speculation that Trump's second term policy toward China would continue the tone of the late 2010s. At that time, there was an increasing and widespread perception in the United States that China posed a serious threat, leading to technological restrictions on China in order to make U.S. infrastructure more secure and limit the development of this rival. However, after more than a year in office, despite the impression that the U.S. was waving the tariff stick, it can be seen that these enhanced restrictions have not worked, with the result being the opposite.

The rhetoric on China has softened

Since the spring of 2025, many measures restricting technology related to China have been relaxed, canceled, or delayed. To avoid harming trade negotiations with Beijing, the White House has asked the government to pause certain measures against China. Export controls have moved away from their traditional mission of protecting national security and are now used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations.

In addition to relaxing these restrictions, the tone of official statements has clearly become less confrontational. President Trump mentioned the concept of "G2," and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said "the relationship between the U.S. and China has never been better."

Do not think these statements are incorrect remarks by the president or Hegseth. The U.S. National Security Strategy report released in December 2025 also reflects a similar stance.

This report places America's priorities on the "Western Hemisphere" and proposes a "Trumpian interpretation" of the Monroe Doctrine, stating that the U.S. will "advocate and implement the 'Trumpian interpretation' as a new version of the Monroe Doctrine." The specific reference to China is only about trade imbalances and China's excess capacity, without mentioning words such as "adversary," "challenge," or "threat." The report argues that if the U.S. can maintain economic growth and maintain a mutually beneficial economic relationship with Beijing, it can gain significant benefits.

Other strategic objectives in the new report do not explicitly target China, reflecting that although some people in the U.S. government (especially within the Pentagon) still feel concerned about China, others (such as the Treasury Secretary) hope to ease the tone toward China.

Hope to promote exports to China

The relaxation of restrictions and the softer rhetoric on China seem to reflect a partial victory for the pro-trade coalition within the Trump administration over the hawks, which could be temporary. Led by President Trump, this coalition's primary goal is to promote U.S. product exports to China and around the world.

Seven years later, Trump continues to place a trade truce at the core of his strategy during his second term. Now, the cost of escalating trade tensions is very high, and China has shown strong resilience, especially through its control over rare earth exports. Supporters of the White House believe that relaxing or delaying restrictions is to buy time, during which the U.S. can diversify its rare earth supply chains and reduce its dependence on China.

In addition to these concerns, promoting U.S. exports in the technology sector is also part of the strategy. The goal of this strategy is to "win the race" in artificial intelligence, making American technology the global foundation rather than implementing overly broad export controls. Selling chips to China allows the U.S. to keep China dependent on American technology; if not exported, China will develop its own chip manufacturing industry. Entering the profitable Chinese market can also allow U.S. companies to gain profits, reinvest in R&D innovation, and maintain their advantage in high-tech and military areas.

This strategy has also received active support from American companies like NVIDIA, which hope to export their products to China. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang described export controls as a "failure," saying it gives China the "motivation, energy, and government support to accelerate development."

Such statements by Huang have made the U.S. worry that China might win the AI competition. In fact, the U.S. should be "accelerating development," instead of imposing restrictions.

Swinging back and forth on China policy

Although the stance towards Beijing has been relatively soft, Washington has not relaxed its response in the security field. Many senior generals in the Pentagon continue to push for a strategy to compete with China globally, including in the high-tech field. Many independent institutions, officials, and politicians believe that restrictions should be strengthened.

However, during the first year of Trump's current administration, the government's position on China did not focus excessively on the security risk area, although this position was full of contradictions. It is clearly visible that public opinion does not seem interested in these security issues: a 2023 survey showed that 58% of people considered China a threat, but by 2025, this percentage had dropped to 50%, especially among Democrats who reevaluated China. This was the first time after the pandemic that so many Americans believed that trade with China would strengthen, rather than weaken, national security.

Faced with this change, Congress remained faithful to its usual position. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the U.S. Congress has viewed China as a threat and has consistently hindered previous presidents from developing relations with China. Members of Congress' concerns about China were even reflected in the budget debate in 2026 — the defense authorization bill passed in December 2025 included many measures targeting China. Moreover, Congress specifically passed a mechanism to control investments in foreign technology sectors, expanding the scope of similar executive orders from the Biden administration.

Congress clearly expressed a desire to strengthen restrictions on China's technology trade, but its actual ability to pressure the government is limited. In terms of tariff policies, Congress has also failed to earn enough respect.

Trump's second-term decisions stem from a combination of various factors, including the influence of close associates of the president and those closely associated with tech leaders. This is a strategy aimed at ensuring America's leadership in high technology, as well as a choice to prioritize the "Western Hemisphere."

Although these decisions may be surprising, they should not be overinterpreted. In fact, the U.S. government continues to swing back and forth on its China policy.

Washington's China policy remains contradictory. This situation is harmful to America's strength.

This article was published on the website of the French magazine "Dazhou" on February 3, titled "Do Trump's supporters really want to start a war with China?" by Mathilde Vellier.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7605764418927854114/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.