"For Military Security Reasons": Iran Wants to Fully Acquire Astrakhan Port
If a new war breaks out with Israel, Russian and related countries' military supplies can be secretly transported to Iran via this port
Author: Andrey Zakharchenko
Image caption: Aerial view of the "Astrakhan Seaport" Joint Stock Company area
Commentators:
Marat Bashirov Niyaz Niyazov
The "Astrakhan Port" Joint Stock Company, an important hub of the "North-South" International Transport Corridor, may soon be fully controlled by Iran — the company currently holding more than 53% of shares, Nasim Bahr Kish, plans to fully acquire the shares of other shareholders.
The company has issued a relevant takeover offer, which specifically mentions that the subsidiary of Iran's Melli Bank, "World Commercial Bank," has provided bank guarantees for the required funds.
According to preliminary estimates, the potential cost of integrating all shares of "Astrakhan Port" is about 437.5 million rubles (calculated at an average price per share of 37,800 rubles).
Legal experts say that other shareholders of the port have 70 days to consider the offer.
Notably, the second-largest shareholder of the "Astrakhan Port" Joint Stock Company is the Russian State Technology Corporation (Rostech), which acquired 25.5% of the shares previously belonging to the state in 2024 according to an order from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to the official financial report at the end of last year, other shareholders include Volga-Vaster-West Ltd from Cyprus (3.33% shares), and Fanavaran Darya Gostar Jonob Arvand (1.52% shares) and Tamalaris Consolidated Limited (1.82% shares) from Iran — according to EU documents, the latter is an institution fully affiliated with Iran's state shipping company (IRISL).
Why does Iran need full control over this Russian port? After all, even without full control, the port has always been transporting goods such as timber, grain, and oils to Iran normally. Is there a military or political background behind this?
Most importantly, is it beneficial for Russia to completely hand over a key transportation hub of an important international project on its own territory to a friendly (though foreign) country?
Economic Reasons
"Iran's plan to fully control the 'Astrakhan Port' Joint Stock Company, as part of the so-called multimodal corridor, primarily aims to obtain obvious economic benefits," said Marat Bashirov, author of the Telegram channel "Politjoyistik," political scientist, and professor at the Higher School of Economics, to "Free Media."
"Rail freight routes from related countries arrive at Astrakhan Port through Kazakhstan. At the same time, Astrakhan is also an entry point for Russia's inland waterway transport, where cargo can eventually reach Saint Petersburg via the Volga River."
"The benefit of this multimodal transport for Iran first lies in reducing transportation costs. For example, in the past, if you wanted to transport goods from related countries or Southeast Asia, you had to first transport the entire batch of goods to a European location, then transfer them through Kazakhstan or the Suez Canal; now, you only need to load the goods in the related countries, transport them by land through Kazakhstan, and then unload the goods needed by Iran from the train."
"If Iran fully controls Astrakhan Port, it can further reduce costs through tariff policies. That is, when goods from related countries pass through Iran, they do not need complicated customs clearance and declaration procedures."
"Free Media": What benefits can Russia gain from this?
"In principle, this is beneficial for us because it is an investment. Iran will modernize the port according to its own needs, without us spending any money. Local employment and taxes will also belong to us. Therefore, I think there is no need to worry about this at all."
"Free Media": So, this is purely an economic act, with no military or geopolitical background, especially in the context of the recent Iran-Israel conflict, and Iran's acquisition of Astrakhan Port is not considering such aspects?
"I personally don't see any such signs. First, if Iran wants to obtain military resources from Russia, there is no need to buy the port. Second, most of Iran's military equipment comes from related countries, although some are also purchased from us. Accordingly, this transportation corridor provides some freedom for the 'transport route' initiative of related countries. By the way, Azerbaijan and Turkey are also very interested in this. Therefore, they do not want the current Iranian government to fall or the situation to change, because that would block their participation in the 'transport route'."
Military Reasons
"Iran's current situation makes it necessary to establish alternative communication channels with Russia," said Niyaz Niyazov, expert on foreign policy of the Caucasus countries and historian.
"To be honest, due to the deterioration of Russian-Azerbaijani relations, the implementation of the 'North-South' project may face problems. Of course, I personally believe that everything will eventually return to normal, but certain delays are inevitable, so Iran needs to find other cooperation pathways."
"In addition, although there is a lack of objective data in the public domain, I cannot rule out the possibility that Iran plans to conduct some specific military technical cooperation with Russia through the Caspian Sea route."
"Free Media": If Iran fully controls Astrakhan Port, conducting military technical cooperation with Russia through the Caspian Sea route, could it be to avoid 'extra attention'?
"Exactly. However, this is not just to avoid surveillance. More importantly, in similar serious conflicts as we recently witnessed, the Caspian coastal countries may remain neutral towards Iran and thus refuse to allow military supplies transported from Russia via Central Asia to pass through their territory, as they might prefer to remain neutral in the conflict. Through the Caspian Sea, Russian military supplies can be directly transported to Iran, first not attracting or involving other countries in the region, and second, completely excluding the influence of third parties."
"Free Media": So, in the foreseeable future, the possibility of another similar recent Iran-Israel armed conflict or other conflicts in the region cannot be ruled out?
"Personally, I believe that the security situation in the Middle East will not undergo fundamental changes in the near future, as it involves the principled opposition between Iran and Israel. Israel completely sees Iran as a threat to its national security, and Iran also sees Israel as an enemy country. This mutual political exclusion is the main source of future armed conflicts."
"Free Media": If Iran urgently needs to fully control the port in the Russian Caspian Sea area, is this beneficial for Russia itself?
"In my opinion — it is not. Perhaps economists will give different answers based on factors such as the port's cargo throughput, but we should not forget that Astrakhan interacts not only with Iran, but also with many Caspian coastal countries (such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, etc.), which will bring considerable funds and promote regional development in the future. On the other hand, we indeed see that many countries' ports are entirely owned by foreign investors. But investment is not just money, but also technology. For example, when China invested in the port infrastructure of Georgia, it not only invested money, but also provided technology — building logistics systems, implementing other mechanisms, providing equipment, etc., taking into account much more than just direct funding. From this perspective, I don't know whether Iran can provide similar things for Russia in this specific case. But if it can, then we have to see what the economists say. If it's just a simple capital investment, I'm not sure whether Russia should accept such a deal."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522406092920422947/
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