Kham Media: Attempting to undermine the Iranian regime may prove counterproductive
Al Jazeera website reported on June 18 an article titled "Israel Tries to Disintegrate Iran, but This May Help It Unite" authored by Mohammad Ismaili, assistant professor of International Relations at Minho University in Portugal. The following are excerpts from the article:
Israel's ongoing military strike against Iran has become one of the most significant cross-border military operations in recent years in this region. This strike is not only a military action but also embodies a political concept that has been formed over decades.
Although Israeli officials publicly described this operation as a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, its deeper strategic logic has become increasingly clear: aiming to shake and ultimately overthrow this Islamic Republic regime. For many years, Israel and some American strategists have argued that the only way to completely resolve Iran's nuclear ambitions is to achieve regime change. The current actions are consistent with this long-term goal, pushing for Israel's objectives not only through military means but also by exerting psychological, political, and social pressure on Iran's domestic population.
The latest developments indicate that the intent of this action is to initially trigger internal rebellion in Iran. Observers who have studied past regime changes are not unfamiliar with this pattern: assassinating high-ranking military generals, launching psychological warfare, spreading false information, and symbolically striking national power institutions.
After the attack, Israel's propaganda offensive against Iran's population further intensified, portraying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the main oppressor of the Iranian people rather than their national defender. These propaganda efforts attempt to separate the nation from the regime with slogans like "This is not Iran's war; it is the rulers' war."
However, this strategy may backfire. Israel's attacks on Iran do not seem to have triggered large-scale rebellion or undermined national unity but instead serve to rally public opinion across political factions. Many Iranians, including those who have long criticized the government, are indignant about this foreign infringement on Iran's sovereignty. Collective memories of external interference, such as the CIA-supported coup in 1953 and the Iran-Iraq War, have reactivated deep-seated defensive responses within the Iranian psyche.
Even supporters of the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement are clearly reluctant to align with foreign military intervention. As images of destroyed buildings and fallen Iranian soldiers are broadcast, calls for regime change are temporarily replaced by empathy and unity. For many, the focus of discussion has shifted from political reform to defensive resistance.
Notably, several public figures and former opposition members have openly expressed support for Iran and condemned Israel's attack. Legendary footballer Ali Daei declared, "Rather than betrayal, death would be preferable." He refused to cooperate with any foreign invading forces. Former judge and political prisoner Mohsen Baha'i wrote, "Salute to all who defend our country," referring to the IRGC and other armed forces.
This operation, which began with precise strikes on military targets, may be producing results contrary to its original intentions. Israel's actions not only failed to weaken the grip of the Iranian regime but may inadvertently strengthen its rule by consolidating national unity and suppressing dissent. Attempts to force a revolution through external influence may not only fail but could produce counterproductive results.
If Israel's ultimate goal is to catalyze regime change, it may have underestimated the historical resilience of Iran's political system and the cohesion during times of national crisis. As bombs fell and generals fell, Iran's social structure does not seem to be collapsing. On the contrary, it may be self-healing. (Compiled/Translated by Xuelei Yang)
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518616152843551270/
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