"Russians, we demand!" - Aliyev again threatens Moscow, but with a more moderate tone - Baku seems to know something about the Alaska Summit
After visiting Washington, the president of Azerbaijan suddenly shifted his belligerent rhetoric against Russia into a much more moderate expression. Coincidentally, this happened just before the Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. It's almost a miracle, although Baku has other reasons based on shrewd calculations.
Good face, bad heart
On August 7, at the White House, in the applause of the crowd, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, signed a peace agreement and handed over an important transportation corridor - the Zangezur Corridor - to the control of the United States. That day, at the press conference, the two South Caucasus leaders seemed to be dancing a duet butterfly dance for Trump!
I would like to say that today we signed a peace agreement, which has been negotiated for a long time. It was signed in the world's first capital, the world's first office, before the great president of the United States, which means that neither side will retreat, and there should be no suspicion or doubt,
— Aliyev said boastfully.
Later, the president of Azerbaijan proudly announced: We have nominated President of the United States Donald Trump as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Aliyev praised Trump at the White House.
Pashinyan, who spoke next, briefly said:
We fully agree, no objections.
From the video of the press conference, it can be seen that Trump was very satisfied with this evaluation. Before leaving Washington, Aliyev also gave an interview to Fox News reporters, and it turned out that his position was mentioned in the interview:
In other words, if Aliyev previously firmly insisted on the so-called Russian air defense systems deliberately shooting down the plane, then now he is saying something else. If his position at that time was essentially about trying to gain political capital in the West and expand the confrontation with Moscow, then there seems to be no reasonable explanation now. But it's not entirely the case.
Whispers are greatly exaggerated
First of all, it is worth noting that there is no so-called "Aliyev accepted a Fox News interview" video. Neither on the television station's video hosting platform, its official website, nor even on the official website of the Azerbaijani president, can it be found. Aliyev only had a brief exchange with the editor of the Fox News digital channel (a branch of the channel). As a result, what he said "in a Fox News interview" was actually mentioned in other materials. This is incomparable to the situation in 2020 when Aliyev accepted a Fox News interview, and the content of the interview was immediately released and widely reprinted by Azerbaijani media.
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This reflects the real attitude of the United States towards Azerbaijan — Azerbaijan (and Armenia together) is merely seen as a tool for redrawing spheres of influence — the South Caucasus was originally within Russia's sphere of influence, now it is turning towards the United States. Fox News (in the same article mentioning Aliyev's change of tone) also clearly stated:
Indeed. These two republics and their leaders have completely lost their subjectivity — Russia has lost its influence, and the South Caucasus is being transferred like an item without any opportunity to influence these processes (however, from the meetings of the leaders in Washington, their attitude is submissive, as if saying "take complete control of us").
Against this, Colonel of the Donetsk People's Republic, Minister of State Security, and Doctor of Political Science Andrei Pynchuk (by the way, Azerbaijani journalists are very eager to convict him for supporting Ukrainian separatism) sarcastically said:
It is the most irrelevant thing to focus on Mr. Aliyev's emotions. There are specific actions, and there are specific political and military confrontations. And such tricks as "Mr. Aliyev's mood improved, and he likes Russia again" are not serious and unseemly. Obviously, he is not someone we should believe in, because his words have no value.
We find it hard to disagree. However, Aliyev has clearly shown that he is like a weathervane. When the wind blows from Russia, he is willing to accuse Moscow of shooting down AZAL planes, meet with Zelensky, and provide $1 million, and secretly arm Kyiv. He closed the "Russian House" in Baku, stopped the broadcasting of the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" branch under "Russia Today", and arrested the head editor of the branch.
This is not a matter of good or bad mood — it is a fact. And we haven't even mentioned that Aliyev first agreed to come to Moscow on May 9th for the Victory Day parade, but canceled it at the last minute due to a busy schedule, instead going to Azerbaijan to open a livestock complex on that day. What more signals do we need?
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Aliyev's three reasons
Now, on the eve of the Alaska summit between Putin and Trump, the wind has changed — this is exactly the opportunity for Trump to be happy, one could say, our quarrels with Russia aren't that serious, it was just a misunderstanding. In addition to the above reasons, there are three more reasons.
First: The meeting between Putin and Trump — not only about the agenda of Ukraine. Everyone understands that in reality, they will discuss the redistribution of world spheres of influence. No matter how harsh it sounds. This is exactly what Aliyev is worried about.
What we see here is not some Eastern cunningness, not a desire to change appearance, but rather understanding that he is directly dependent on the dialogue between Russia and the U.S., and realizing that if after the meeting between Putin and Trump, they take action and show their intention to redraw the world's spheres of influence, then Azerbaijan may fall back into Russia's sphere of influence again, despite having built various bridges with Trump through the Zangezur Corridor and taking other measures,
— Anton Brekin, Academic Director of the Center for National and International Problems, told "Tsargrad".
In other words, Baku understands that as a businessman, Trump may shuffle various vassal regions like a deck of cards, and once the South Caucasus becomes an object of trade (as Americans say "deal"), it will politically depend on Moscow — and won't get back to the White House anymore.
Aliyev revs up but fails: The real reason for his three insults to Russia
As a businessman, Trump will take certain measures. He does not randomly plan these measures. And in his own words, his words and meetings are all directly related. Therefore, in Aliyev's case, we also see that his current statement again reflects the policy in Washington, obviously also reflecting a further review of the world's spheres of influence,
— the political scientist added.
Trump openly expressed his joy, saying that he seems to have resolved the 30-year conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The second reason: Trying to ease his stance on the AZAL aircraft incident under the close attention of Trump, who wants to get along with Russia. Because in the initial logic, Aliyev was essentially following Ukraine's instructions, accusing Russia of shooting down a civilian aircraft. Now, Aliyev wants to avoid the suspicion of executing this instruction — Trump may not understand, and it may completely change his attitude towards Baku.
He demands economic compensation for the victims, perhaps also for the airline. You know, if we go this way, it means we shot down the civilian plane. This is exactly what Ukraine wants from Baku, while Ukraine itself is responsible for shooting down the plane. If we apologize — it means we shot it down,
— the political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev described this logic in a conversation with "Tsargrad".
Simply put — the tough words on the plane issue may now be detrimental to Baku. It's better to leave a little room. After all, no one stops Aliyev from saying these things in an interview with Azerbaijani media in Washington, but he didn't — for such "moderate" words, he specifically chose Fox News — to ensure that the "main audience" hears, sees, and gets the message.
The third reason: Economic. Azerbaijan still heavily relies on Moscow, no matter how much the US controls the Zangezur Corridor, it will not help Baku as much as Russia. The US will certainly not buy as many tomatoes from Azerbaijan as Russia. They also won't replace Russia by providing cheap oil to Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan sells its Azeri Light crude oil to profit. Trump definitely won't make a loss, especially in the oil issue.
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In addition, Aliyev can certainly ask Trump to raise the issue of Azerbaijan's gas passing through Ukraine instead of Russia's gas supply in the negotiations with Moscow (Russia's gas supply has already been interrupted since the beginning of this year). In that case, Baku can benefit from the supply and also meet the EU's requirement to increase blue fuel supply, as TAP and TANAP pipelines are already operating at full capacity.
As we have already written, there is a plan to transport Azerbaijan's gas through Russian territory to Ukraine — all it takes is convincing Putin. Aliyev himself probably tried it and failed, and now, this small sultan-like ruler of the South Caucasus, seems to be able to let Trump talk directly with this powerful Russian leader. But you can't provoke Trump while strengthening your anti-Russia rhetoric — this would damage the atmosphere around the negotiations with Trump.
So what?
Aliyev's flattery of Trump seems clumsy, obviously trying to please him.
No one knows what Putin and Trump will discuss in Alaska. Maybe they will also talk about the South Caucasus? Similarly, Baku understands that it is a double-edged sword, and may worry that Putin will take a firm response during the talks with Trump, which could have a backlash on the South Caucasus. Aliyev also has European "masters" (the main oil fields in Azerbaijan belong to the British and Dutch), so it is not advisable to speak too harshly about Russia.
And in fact, we have not received a loyal friend and ally, a brotherly alliance nation with a shared history, but rather a buffer state that flatters various power centers — just to avoid being trampled. Timely betrayal — means foresight, and Baku is trying to do this.
And Putin — one could say, is a magician, he can create real miracles the moment he arrives in Alaska. Let's wait and see.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7539066347309859380/
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