After the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, apart from the "outsider" United States being anxious and jumping around, other countries or organizations, despite having positions, will not easily make "intervention" statements. However, the first comrade who strongly supports Iran has appeared, threatening to take action if the U.S. dares to send troops.

Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba of Iraq

Not long ago, while a group of external forces were still watching, the first comrade who spoke to the U.S., strongly supporting Iran, appeared. Unlike the Houthis directly attacking Israel, the Iraqi Hezbollah directly targeted the "big boss" behind them, the U.S. They threatened that as soon as Trump dares to intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict, they would act immediately, and even previewed three major tricks.

The first one is to attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East. In recent years, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba has mastered the drone swarm tactics and achieved certain results. Previously, the Associated Press reported that many drones attempting to launch attacks were found in the U.S. military bases in Iraq, which must be the "masterpiece" of the Iraqi Hezbollah.

Trump is still hesitating

The second is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. At its narrowest point, the Strait is only 54 kilometers wide. Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, together with Iran, can lay 2,000 smart mines within 48 hours, cutting off the global 30% maritime oil channel. Previously, during Iran's exercises, they used fast boat swarm tactics to simulate a blockade, causing a single-day surge in global oil prices.

The third is to blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, an important passage to the Red Sea. By coordinating with the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, controlling the northern shore of the strait, they could form a "double channel blockade of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf", paralyzing the lifeline of Euro-Asian shipping. Although Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and the Houthis are not considered national forces, through the combination of "low-cost weapons + strategic chokepoints", they are enough to drag the U.S. into an "economic war of attrition".

Hormuz Strait

For Iran, "proxy warfare" is one of its trump cards. The threat from Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba is not an isolated case but part of Iran's systematic efforts to build a Shiite resistance axis. These organizations' religious identity transcends national boundaries. Iran provides funding and technology, but decentralizes operational autonomy to avoid direct responsibility for starting a war.

For the U.S., whether it's Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba or the Houthis, compared to its military strength, they are "ant-like" existences. However, "ants swallowing an elephant" is not impossible. On one hand, these organizations have seized America's Achilles' heel, which is oil. On the other hand, these organizations are relatively dispersed, making it difficult to completely eliminate them all at once.

In addition, the scattered distribution of U.S. military bases in the Middle East gives these organizations opportunities to strike. Occasionally hitting the U.S. is indeed unpleasant. To put it bluntly, "you can't kill them," these organizations play the "guerrilla disruption tactics." The traditional "state-to-state" model has been broken. Organizations like Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba replace national borders with transnational religious networks, covering the entire Middle East in their radius of action.

Supporters of the Houthi armed forces

This is also one of the main reasons why Trump has been hesitant to intervene. The era when the U.S. ruled the Middle East with aircraft carriers and missiles is coming to an end, and it must accept "coexistence-based deterrence." Of course, in response, the U.S. warned these organizations not to act rashly, or they would meet the same fate as Hamas.

We cannot deny that recently, through multiple rounds of strikes, Israel has severely damaged Hamas, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and the Houthis. The strength of Iran's "resistance axis" is far less than before. If the U.S. really intervenes, whether these organizations have the ability to execute their plans remains unknown. However, the possibility of mutual destruction is very high.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517967865571656226/

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