[Source / Observer Network, Liu Chenghui] Retrieving the first batch of "fire soil" by humans is an important plan for world-class space powers. The moves made by China and the US are particularly noteworthy.
While China is steadily advancing its Mars exploration program, the US's Mars sample return plan has encountered setbacks, and now, under the budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration, it finds itself in a precarious situation.
"Will NASA withdrawing from the Mars race give China the leadership in space?" Hong Kong-based English-language media South China Morning Post reported on April 19 with this title. It stated that the White House has included the Mars sample return plan in the list of proposed cuts, while China has outlined long-term plans for its Mars missions, including the Tianwen-3 mission scheduled to bring back 600 grams of Martian samples to Earth by 2031, followed by establishing a Mars base, developing research facilities, and transportation systems.
In the opinion of industry experts, this move will bring uncertainty not only to the US but also to its allies, weakening its leadership in the space sector, and may prompt NASA's international partners to reconsider their cooperation with the US.
On April 6, 2021, NASA's Perseverance rover selfie showcased the detector and the "Ingenuity" helicopter. Visual China
The Office of Management and Budget sent a draft of the White House budget proposal to NASA on April 10. This draft proposes to cut about 20% from NASA's overall spending level, with science projects seeing a nearly 50% reduction.
The budget will provide $1.9 billion for planetary science, which is about one-third less than the 2024 budget. In particular, the Mars Sample Return Plan led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California faces cancellation due to cost and schedule overruns. NASA also studied two alternative options earlier this year. Another project canceled is the "DAVINCI+" Venus exploration project.
In the coming months, the US Congress and the White House will finalize the final budget plan.
Yuchi Qian, a planetary geologist at the University of Hong Kong, said: "When the US and China are competing for global economic leadership on Earth, the US is giving up its leadership role in space to China."
He said that the White House's approach brings great uncertainty to the US and its allies.
"The cancellation of the joint Mars sample return mission between NASA and the European Space Agency is a typical example. Since 2021, the research team has made significant progress in sample collection through the Perseverance rover."
Qian believes that such actions may prompt NASA's international partners to reconsider their cooperation with the US.
"This will certainly weaken the US's leadership in space, especially since China is launching well-planned and ambitious plans to bring back Martian samples and send humans to the Moon," he said.
Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX and political ally of Trump, also expressed concern over NASA's budget cuts.
Musk described the news as "unsettling," saying: "I am very supportive of science, but unfortunately, because SpaceX is the main contractor for NASA, I cannot participate in NASA's budget discussions."
Namrata Goswami, a space policy expert at Arizona State University, pointed out that China has also released a detailed roadmap for its Mars exploration plans after the Tianwen-3 mission, which is expected to launch in 2028.
"This is no different from China's lunar missions, which focus on resource extraction and the economic development of the Moon," she added, noting that China is also working on nuclear propulsion technology to support Mars development.
"Zhu Rong" and the lander in a photo together National Space Administration
In the field of Mars exploration, China started high. Through the Tianwen-1 mission in 2020, China completed the "orbit, landing, and roving" detection of Mars in one go. The extended service of the Zhurong rover has yielded fruitful scientific results.
Currently, China has begun planning to build the world's first Mars sample laboratory and is deepening the argument for the Tianwen-4 probe mission to achieve Jupiter and its satellite orbital detection, followed by reaching Uranus.
Last September, China's National Space Administration announced that the implementation time for the Tianwen-3 Mars sample return mission would be moved forward from around 2030 to around 2028.
This year's government work report proposed accelerating the organization and advanced layout of major scientific and technological projects. Sun Zezhou, a national deputy and from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, told reporters that China will implement the Mars sample return mission around 2030.
On March 11, the China National Space Administration website released an announcement regarding international cooperation opportunities for the Mars sample return mission (Tianwen-3). According to the announcement, the Tianwen-3 probe consists of a combination of landing, ascending, and server modules (lander, ascender, orbiter) and an orbit-return combination (orbiter, return module). It is planned to launch around 2028 and carry Martian samples back to Earth around 2030.
The announcement states that this cooperation opportunity is open to the international community, welcoming international cooperation on a system-wide or single-machine basis with the Tianwen-3 mission. It encourages foreign research institutions to collaborate with domestic payload development units. The intention letter collection work will continue until the end of June, and the confirmation time for the carried projects will be in October.
Yuchi Qian analyzed that this announcement indicates that Tianwen-3 is proceeding according to plan. "This could be a turning point where China will challenge the US's leadership in deep-space exploration," he said.
While China is steadily advancing its space exploration programs, America's Mars plans have been fraught with difficulties, suffering from budget cuts, technical failures, and other setbacks.
The US has successfully landed on Mars eight times, with the most recent being the Perseverance rover landing in February 2021. At that time, American media emphasized that the US had "successfully landed on Mars multiple times" when reporting China's successful landing on Mars.
"Who will win the race to bring back Martian samples remains uncertain," Xinhua News Agency once wrote.
However, the situation for the US is becoming increasingly dire.
In January, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine revealed that two options for returning Mars samples collected by Perseverance were being studied. The first option involves using a rocket-powered "sky crane" system, while the second option entrusts the landing system to private companies.
NASA will confirm the plan and its design in the second half of 2026, with the goal of returning all samples collected by Perseverance to Earth between 2035 and 2039.
It is worth noting that Perseverance successfully landed on Mars in February 2021 and has already collected several Martian samples. However, due to difficulties in technical system coordination and funding, NASA has yet to finalize a feasible sample return plan.
According to the latest information disclosed by NASA, Americans will have to wait until at least 2035 to retrieve the samples collected by Perseverance.
Earlier, the "Space" website reported that "China might indeed bring Martian samples back to Earth before the US does."
Due to severe cost and schedule overruns, NASA's "Mars Sample Return Mission" (MSR) has陷入困境. NASA once indicated that the MSR plan would cost $11 billion, which was too costly and overly complex, potentially delaying the return of samples to Earth until around 2040.
Quentin Parker, an astrophysicist at the University of Hong Kong, said that this Mars exploration race between China and the US may represent another "Sputnik moment."
In the Cold War era of the US and the Soviet Union in 1957, the Soviet Union took the lead over the US by sending the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, into Earth's orbit. This technological advantage gave the US a huge shock.
Parker remarked: "China is not just ahead of NASA by a year, but by several years; in fact, China has pulled far ahead of the US."
Yuchi Qian said that although NASA's sampling process is more comprehensive, it also makes the task extremely complex and time-consuming.
"By comparison, China's method is more feasible," he said. Chinese researchers and their international collaborators will carefully select the landing site for Tianwen-3 to maximize its scientific returns.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495245428217201186/
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