Harvard Professor: Renminbi Will Become an International Reserve Currency Within Five Years
On May 3, Courrier Japan published an interview with Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University: In recent years, China has been striving to move away from a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar and aims to establish the renminbi as an international reserve currency. The rise of the renminbi and cryptocurrencies (virtual currencies) will impact the global economy.
The rise of China, geopolitical tensions, and the growing influence of crypto assets are contributing to a decline in the status of the U.S. dollar. In February 2026, China expressed its ambition to make the renminbi a world reserve currency.
Widely allowing foreign investors access to government bond markets, particularly in futures trading and interest rate swaps—financial derivatives involving the exchange of interest payments on loans with different interest rates within the same currency over a specified period.
To become an international reserve currency, the renminbi does not need to open all markets. In the 1970s, the United States still imposed many restrictions on foreign investors, yet maintained its status as an international reserve currency. This was because the U.S. focused on developing a financial system capable of settling transactions in dollars even when no U.S. involvement was present in international trade.
If foreign investors hold a significant portion of Chinese government bonds, the international community will increasingly accept the renminbi as a reserve currency.
Given that global investors are seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar, we predict that the renminbi will become a global reserve currency within five years.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864142292157451/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.