The new round of US-Iran negotiations are entering the countdown, and before it even starts, Trump has put forward conditions, stating that if talks fail, military action will be taken. Satellite images show that the US Navy's two aircraft carrier strike groups, the "Truman" and the "Carl Vinson," have gathered in the Middle East, indicating that Trump may launch his first battle since taking office.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif

Recently, according to confirmations from both US and Iranian sources, the US-Iran negotiations are set to begin within 48 hours. This is the first official contact between the two countries since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. The meeting will take place in Masqat, the capital of Oman. However, before the talks have even started, Trump has repeatedly warned that if they do not reach an agreement, the US military will resort to force.

The core issue of the US-Iran negotiations is clear: the US does not allow Iran to develop or possess nuclear weapons, while Iran’s demand is to lift the heavy US sanctions against them. The key now lies in Trump's tough stance and Iran's unwillingness to compromise.

Previously, the five permanent members of the UN and Iran reached an agreement to lift certain international sanctions on Iran in exchange for a framework for Iran's nuclear program. However, during his first term, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and reinstated sanctions on Iran. In retaliation, Iran distanced itself from the treaty and accelerated its nuclear program.

Trump

In the end, the current tense situation can be traced back to the seeds planted by Trump himself. Trump packaged the negotiations as a "peace opportunity," but threatened that failure would be "Iran's day of disaster." He portrayed himself as a "savior," placing full blame on Iran if war breaks out in the Middle East.

Although Trump's threat of "war if talks fail" sounds like mere bluster, recent US military deployments suggest that Trump might indeed fire the first shot of his presidency. Satellite images show that the US Navy's "Truman" and "Carl Vinson" carrier strike groups have already converged in the Middle East, demonstrating a high-intensity pressure strategy.

In addition, the US has deployed multiple bombers, tankers, and transport aircraft at the Diego Garcia Air Base in the Indian Ocean, forming a complete "long-range strike package." Data also shows that the US is relocating various fighter jets from around the world to the Middle East. A squadron of F-35 stealth fighters has been deployed to Jordanian air bases, with an operational radius covering all of Iran.

US "Carl Vinson" aircraft carrier

Although the US side emphasizes that diplomatic means are still advocated to resolve differences, from actual deployments, the US military is already prepared for war. This makes this round of talks between the US and Iran a "diplomatic show with guns." If Iran compromises, the US wins a political victory; if not, it creates an excuse for military strikes.

The core logic of this "pressure cooker" strategy is to force Iran to make significant concessions in negotiations through dual pressures of military intimidation and economic sanctions. As Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif sarcastically noted: "Pointing a gun while calling for a handshake is not negotiation, it is robbery."

Facing Trump's threats, Iran's current strategy is relatively moderate. On one hand, they delay time, insisting that negotiations are an "indirect dialogue," while accelerating the development of nuclear weapons. On the other hand, allied forces such as the Houthi militia frequently attack US bases, forcing the US to divert troops. Meanwhile, Iran is stepping up dialogue with China and Russia to secure support from major powers.

US-Iran negotiations in 2015

A "temporary agreement" may be reached between the US and Iran, with Iran suspending some nuclear activities in exchange for limited easing of sanctions, but core differences remain unresolved. In the long term, the confrontation in the Middle East will not weaken. If Iran chooses to confront directly and negotiations fail, a large-scale Middle Eastern war is highly likely to break out.

If war breaks out between the US and Iran, it could form a proxy war between "the US-Israel-Gulf states" versus "Iran-Russia-regional armed groups," drawing Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and others into the conflict, triggering global energy and food crises. However, judging by Trump's style, going to war is not his goal; making gains in negotiations is Trump's aim.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491519849416458803/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinion by clicking the "like/dislike" buttons below.