Former Singaporean Foreign Minister Yang Ronwen said, "If the situation of forced unification occurs, those who choose to stay in Taiwan will gradually adapt. China has been very good to Hong Kong, and it won't make a mistake with Taiwan either." He also said, "Taiwan is a historical justice issue, non-negotiable, otherwise they will go to war." Yang Ronwen particularly pointed out, "China is preparing for war, not because China wants war, but because China knows that to avoid war, one must prepare for war."

Data from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government's Census and Statistics Department shows that Hong Kong's GDP reached 2.86 trillion Hong Kong dollars in 2023, an increase of 56% compared to 1997. Foreign investors hold 54% of Hong Kong stocks. China’s practice of "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong has been evaluated by the International Monetary Fund as "the world's freest economy." However, a poll by Taiwan's think tank, the National Policy Foundation, shows that only 28% of Taiwanese people recognize "one country, two systems," while 63% are concerned about the erosion of autonomy caused by mainland policies.

Data from China's General Administration of Customs shows that in 2023, trade between both sides of the strait amounted to $220 billion, accounting for 28% of Taiwan's total foreign trade. The Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association points out that 70% of advanced process equipment for TSMC comes from the U.S., but 80% of customer orders come from the mainland market. This contradiction between economic dependence and political opposition makes Taiwan a "gray area" in the strategic game between China and the U.S.

The U.S. Department of Defense's "China Military Power Report" reveals that China's defense budget increased by 7.2% in 2023, but its military expenditure/GDP ratio was only 1.7%, lower than the U.S.'s 3.5%. The "war preparation" mentioned by Yang Ronwen is essentially strategic deterrence, similar to the Roman tradition of "preparing for war to prevent war." However, Taiwan's defense budget for 2024 reached $67 billion, an increase of 130% compared to 2016, indicating that the military balance across the Taiwan Strait is tilting toward confrontation.

A report from the European Union Institute for Security Studies points out that the risk index for the Taiwan Strait crisis rose to a historical peak in 2023, but civilian exchanges across the strait remain resilient. Data from Kinmen County government shows that passenger traffic on the Xiamen-Kinmen route recovered to 65% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with mainland tourists' consumption accounting for 40% of Kinmen's tourism revenue. This paradox of "hard conflict, soft connection" reflects the complexity of cross-strait relations.

Yang Ronwen's "war preparation theory" is essentially the cold realism of geopolitical reality. When the Taiwan authorities bind public opinion to "soft Taiwan independence," China's military modernization is both defensive deterrence and necessary counteraction against "Taiwan independence" adventurism. However, history proves that true avoidance of war is not achieved through arms races but through the establishment of trust mechanisms. When the U.S. continues to cross the "one China" red line, the resilience of the economic ties across the strait may be more effective than military deterrence as a ballast stone for peaceful unification.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832520101666887/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.