Not long ago, Trump waved his hand in the Oval Office of the White House and handed Boeing the contract for the "Next Generation Air Dominance" (NGAD) fighter jet, naming it F-47. This $20 billion "big gift," at first glance, seems like throwing a life-saving rope to a sinking boat for Boeing, but upon closer inspection, it's not saving them—it's clearly a death sentence! Boeing, this old factory that can't even build trainer planes efficiently, has poor quality, scarce innovation, and out-of-control costs. Now they are being pushed to take on the flag of sixth-generation fighters to compete with China? If this gamble fails, China will likely roll on the floor laughing.
Everyone knows how miserable Boeing has been these past few years. The 737 MAX crash shattered its civil aviation business, the KC-46 exceeded its budget by $7 billion, and the upgrade of Air Force One lost $2 billion. Its stock price has been fluctuating like a roller coaster. After the $20 billion NGAD deal was announced, Boeing's stock price jumped by 5%, as if it had received an injection of adrenaline. But can this shot really cure its problems? A company that can't deliver F-15EX properly can handle a sixth-generation fighter with stealth, intelligence, and supersonic capabilities? Is Trump trying to save Boeing or using it as a pawn for a big gamble?
Lockheed Martin, the competitor, must be fuming over being sidelined this time. Although the F-35 is sold worldwide, its exorbitantly high cost and numerous issues have been troubling the Air Force. The glory of the F-22 has faded, and the Air Force probably doesn't want to bet everything on Lockheed Martin anymore. But is Boeing a reliable option? Outsiders doubt, fearing it's just a broken basket that can't even hold eggs.
Boeing does okay with traditional fighters, managing to deliver F/A-18 and F-15EX勉强, but when it comes to stealth fighters, it has nothing impressive to show. Lockheed Martin has F-22 and F-35 to stand tall, while Boeing relies on outdated technology, with almost zero accumulation in stealth technology. NGAD requires all-around stealth, supersonic cruise, and drone collaboration—does Boeing have the technical foundation for such demands?
Quality control is Boeing's biggest headache. The accidents involving the 737 MAX still haunt people, the KC-46 has endless problems, the delivery of F-15EX is delayed again and again, and even the small project T-7A "Red Hawk" trainer plane has turned into a marathon. The breakdown of production lines is a systemic disaster. For a high-tech project like NGAD, which demands strict quality standards, can Boeing avoid failure?
Innovation design? Forget it. Boeing has been living off its past achievements, and the duck wings plus tailless layout in the F-47 renderings may look fresh, but upon closer examination, it’s merely a repackaging of old concepts like X-45 and X-36. There’s no groundbreaking creativity. In contrast, China’s sixth-generation fighters are rumored to be full of cutting-edge technologies. How can Boeing's “old wine in new bottles” trick compare?
And don’t even mention cost control. The KC-46 exceeded its budget by $7 billion, and Air Force One lost $2 billion. Boeing is a veritable "money-burning specialist." NGAD is rumored to cost over $300 million per unit. Once production starts, it won’t be surprising if costs skyrocket. By then, if taxpayers’ money runs out without any aircraft in sight, Americans might throw a fit.
In comparison, China’s aerospace industry is fully geared up. Rumors about Chengdu Aircraft and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s sixth-generation projects are well-founded. Chengdu’s model is clearly designed to go head-to-head with NGAD, with entry into service by 2028 not far off. Full-range broadband stealth, supersonic cruise, ultra-long range, capable of carrying drone swarms, paired with upgrades to J-20, its technological reserves and execution ability seem like they’re on steroids. Shenyang’s stealth carrier-based sixth-generation fighter is also moving forward rapidly, leaving Boeing miles behind.
America? If Boeing stumbles with NGAD, the consequences aren’t something to be taken lightly. With F-22 showing its age and F-35 riddled with problems, if NGAD fails too, what will America use to counter China’s sixth-generation fighters? The air superiority over the Western Pacific could easily fall into China’s hands. Then, Chinese jets will fly freely while America can only watch from the ground. A tilt in the military balance would be disastrous.
Trump’s move provides Boeing with short-term relief, but in the long run, the risks are enormous. Musk has already criticized that advanced fighter jets aren’t cost-effective, and Boeing’s quality collapse, lack of innovation, and cost mismanagement are obvious. China’s sixth-generation fighters are closing in, making the odds of NGAD failing higher than succeeding. If Boeing messes up, it won’t just ruin itself but also jeopardize America’s dominance in air power. China is likely watching with glee, thinking: no matter how spectacular this gamble unfolds, it’ll ultimately end as a laughingstock.
Can F-47 take flight, can Boeing recover, and can America maintain air supremacy? It all depends on the next few years. But given Boeing’s issues with quality, innovation, and cost control, it’s unlikely to outpace China’s newcomers. Trump’s "masterstroke" can save Boeing temporarily but not America forever, and it might even become a nightmare for the U.S. Air Force. The Chinese are calmly observing this comedy unfold, waiting to see how it ends.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488310463768527386/
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