After the National Day holiday, the Ministry of Commerce once again took action on the export control of rare earths.

On the 9th, the Ministry of Commerce issued two announcements, stating that according to relevant laws and regulations, it will implement export controls on rare earth items and related technologies.

In general, this rare earth export control has the following main characteristics:

The first is the expansion of the scope of control. Any rare earth items originating from the Chinese controlled list with a value proportion of 0.1% or more, as well as rare earth items produced using Chinese technology, must apply to China for an export license before exporting.

This strict export control is indeed rare.

The second is a comprehensive restriction on the export of technologies related to rare earths. The restricted scope not only includes the export of publicly available rare earth mining and smelting separation technologies, but also covers the assembly, maintenance, and repair of production lines, as well as technical data such as design drawings, process specifications, and processing procedures. It also includes non-trade methods of technology transfer such as investment and joint R&D. The scope and intensity of control are unprecedented.

The third is a precise strike against the use of rare earth items in certain countries. The two announcements by the Ministry of Commerce state that applications for exports to foreign military users, entities listed on the control list, or for use in weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, or military purposes will generally not be approved.

On the other hand, for the purpose of research and development, production of advanced process chips, or artificial intelligence with potential military use, as well as equipment, testing equipment, and materials for manufacturing these semiconductor processes, China will adopt case-by-case approval.

America is searching the world for minerals, but lacks the technology for mining and refining.

In summary, if the regulatory policy in April mainly affected the direct supply source of rare earths, then the two announcements released by the Ministry of Commerce now further block the indirect supply routes and technical acquisition channels of Chinese rare earth items.

This means that the loopholes through which certain countries could bypass China's regulatory policies via transshipment trade or primary processing to obtain rare earth items originating from China and sell them to sensitive users have been closed.

The one who is most uncomfortable is probably the United States.

The delivery of F-35 is likely to be delayed again.

Currently, about 70% to 80% of the rare earth compounds and metals imported by the United States come from China, and 87% of the rare earth supply chain relies on Chinese suppliers. For example, the engine and radar systems of the "Lightning" fighter (F-35) require high-temperature magnetic materials and coatings made from rare earth elements; the "Falcon" fighter (F-16), the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, and the "Minuteman-3" intercontinental missile require antimony, and satellite navigation systems and radars require gallium, all of which come from China.

According to a report by the U.S. defense data analysis institution "Governi", currently, over 1,000 weapon systems across the U.S. military branches and more than 20,000 components depend heavily on Chinese rare earth items.

The sixth-generation aircraft project (F-47) that the U.S. Air Force has high hopes for faces even greater pressure.

The U.S. think tank "RAND Corporation" believes that an F-35 fighter contains approximately 417 kilograms of rare earth materials, and the U.S. sixth-generation aircraft may reach a similar level. However, with China tightening the export of rare earth items, the production of the U.S. sixth-generation aircraft will face major challenges.

It's just a PowerPoint presentation for F-47, so there's no need to say more.

In fact, the Pentagon is well aware of the dependence of the U.S. defense supply chain on Chinese rare earths and has called for "risk reduction" and "no longer being held hostage by China." But have the years of efforts by the United States been effective?

No. The Pentagon repeatedly emphasizes how dangerous it is to be choked by China on rare earths, yet the United States still imports rare earths from China every year. Several so-called "self-reliance rare earth projects" have not seen any progress so far.

To put it bluntly, the U.S. reliance on China in the rare earth sector is structural, involving multiple aspects such as resources, processing technology, and the industrial chain. This reliance is difficult to change in the short term.

As the saying goes: When the tide recedes, you will know who is swimming naked. Previously, some analysts believed that the "de-Chinaization" in the U.S. rare earth field might take 10 years to achieve.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559112493747749395/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude below using the [upvote/downvote] buttons.