Will Trump protect Europe? The closely united UK, France and Germany

¬ Signing the first military agreement after World War II to respond to a "Europe without the United States"

On the 23rd, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Berlin, Germany, and held a summit with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. It is expected that the leaders of the two countries will issue a new joint statement including plans to expand their security cooperation. The statement may mention the plan to extend France's nuclear umbrella to Germany. Following recent strengthening of security cooperation between France and the UK, and between the UK and Germany, as France and Germany engage in close cooperation, it is expected that the "triangular security cooperation framework" will be completed.

They are trying to establish a military security cooperation system covering from conventional forces to nuclear weapons. After the U.S.-European "Atlantic Alliance," which has lasted for nearly 80 years, became shaky following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, European representative countries have united for self-defense. The New York Times (NYT) explained this as: "Europe is preparing for a future without the United States."

Previously, Macron visited the UK from the 8th of this month for a three-day state visit, met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and signed the "Northwood Declaration," which includes a plan for mutual coordination when using nuclear weapons. This move can be interpreted as both countries, as the only two nuclear-armed countries in Europe, expressing the willingness to expand the European nuclear umbrella through cooperation in the use of nuclear weapons. Subsequently, on the 17th of this month, UK Prime Minister Starmer met with German Chancellor Merz in London and signed the "Kensington Treaty," aimed at enhancing comprehensive cooperation in defense and security areas, including joint development of long-range strike weapons and providing military support in case of foreign invasion, which effectively reaches the level of a military alliance. In particular, it states "will continue to have comprehensive dialogue on security issues such as nuclear deterrence," implying that the UK's nuclear umbrella might be extended to Germany.

It is rare for the leaders of the three major European powers (E3), the UK, Germany, and France, who had tense relations due to issues such as Brexit, to conduct security cooperation within ten days. This is the first time since World War II that the three countries have signed military security agreements with each other. As NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) alliance countries, the three countries are obligated under Article V of the NATO charter to provide mutual support in the event of armed aggression. On this basis, the three countries have also made bilateral security cooperation commitments.

Previously, the leaders of the three countries visited Ukraine together in May, demonstrating their willingness to provide post-war reconstruction and security guarantees. The UK and France also formed an "Alliance of Will," preparing to send peacekeeping forces to maintain Ukraine's security after the war, and are pushing for this action. They plan to set up a headquarters in Paris and hold a founding meeting soon.

The background for the three countries setting aside differences and uniting is the concern that the existing NATO system led by the U.S. may no longer function. The New York Times said: "Their cooperation is a direct response to the shock wave of Trump's diplomacy." This is not only an diplomatic event, but also signifies the anxiety of Europe losing trust in the U.S., and a "major shift" in the diplomatic landscape.

Trump has continued to make "conditional" statements regarding the fulfillment of Article V of the NATO charter, stimulating the sense of crisis among European allies. Last year, he also stated that "countries that do not adequately use defense spending will not receive protection from the U.S." Merz responded: "Security is not our choice, but our responsibility," indicating the need to strengthen European-led capabilities. The security system led by the three countries is more like a "Plan B (contingency plan)" rather than seeking to replace NATO, but the Wall Street Journal said: "In the long run, this could lead to a weakening of American influence in Europe."

The trend led by the three countries is spreading to the EU (European Union) level. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, told the UK Financial Times on the 21st: "Multiple partner countries in Asia have been harmed by the U.S. under Trump. Europe must further strengthen its security cooperation with these Asian democratic countries." This can be understood as Europe, which faces similar situations to Asian countries experiencing security turmoil due to America's "America First" policies, should unite.

The EU decided on the 23rd to launch the "EU-Japan Competitiveness Alliance" by holding a summit with Japan, which is also based on the same considerations. Both sides will discuss the supply chain diversification issues caused by U.S. tariff disputes and propose cooperation plans.

The Institute of International Relations in France (IFRI) stated in a recent report: "The U.S. 'conditional' security commitment emphasizing defense spending has become a decisive opportunity for European countries to pursue autonomy in security, technology, and economic fields independent of the U.S."

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838422343681545/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself