Reuters interview on January 8th. The new CEO of ASML, when talking about the Chinese market, used such a statement. There is no longer the certainty of "you can't catch up" from five years ago, nor the warning of "restrictions will force alternatives" from three years ago. Instead, it's a more complex description: a "market we will no longer recognize." This sentence is more thought-provoking than any technical judgment.

Admitting an Inevitable Fact

It must be admitted that ASML's position in extreme ultraviolet lithography remains solid. Its advantage lies not in a single component, but in a collaborative system that has spanned decades and spans Europe, the United States, and Japan. German Zeiss lenses, American light sources, and over 5,000 global suppliers.

According to ASML's 2025 financial report, its latest generation High-NA EUV equipment costs more than 300 million euros, with orders extending until 2027.

This is a high wall built through time and ecosystem. So, when someone says "there is a gap," this is an objective description. The real issue is the underlying message. The previous implication was "this gap is eternal." The current implication seems to have changed to "the gap still exists, but the rules of the game may change."

Sensitivity Arises from Changing Signals

If China's efforts are destined to be futile, why would ASML's CEO pay so much attention to the form of a "future market"? Because changes have already occurred and are recorded in data. According to the International Semiconductor Industry Association's fourth-quarter 2025 report, mainland China has become the world's largest dry deep ultraviolet lithography equipment market.

More importantly, China's self-developed deep ultraviolet lithography machines for 90nm and above processes have achieved mass production and batch delivery by 2025. The capacity data is even more direct.

According to XINMO Research statistics, in 2025, the proportion of production lines using non-ASML lithography equipment in China's local logic device capacity has risen from single digits three years ago to nearly 30%.

The market is voting with orders. This is not a "technical breakthrough," but rather a "divergence" in the supply chain structure. The assertion by ASML's former CEO, Wim Vermin, about "ideological restrictions," is being realized in reality as two gradually parallel supply systems.

Reconstruction, Not Replication

China did not replicate ASML's path. It couldn't. Its approach is based on existing industrial capabilities, with a system reconstruction. A typical example is the optical system. Zeiss has over a century of lens technology accumulation. China chose not to directly tackle EUV-level lenses, but instead combined its investments in algorithms and system integration.

In 2025, the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics and Shanghai Micro Electronics collaborated to optimize the imaging performance of existing optical components through deep collaboration between computational lithography and measurement feedback. Its principle is similar to using powerful "post-processing" capabilities to compensate for some "pre-production lens" shortcomings. It's not perfect, but it works. And it can iterate quickly.

Another key point is the collaboration method. Chinese equipment manufacturers, fab plants, and material suppliers are conducting unprecedentedly close collaboration, driven by national major needs. This is a "task-oriented" R&D, where efficiency and risk coexist. This has shaped a new market: it has a phased pursuit of absolute performance, but an absolute demand for supply chain security, and strict cost control. This is indeed a market that ASML may no longer recognize.

Victory Lies in the System, Not the Machine

In the short term, the technical gap in high-end lithography machines is still clearly visible. But in the long run, the focus of this competition is shifting from "the precision of a single machine" to "the resilience of a manufacturing system." Japan's memory from the 1980s is profound. At that time, it had the most advanced equipment and technology, but the entire industry chain's leadership was systematically transferred.

The current situation is different. China starts with the systematization of mature processes and builds control from the bottom up. The statement by the ASML CEO precisely reflects this shift, bringing discomfort. They were familiar with the game of competing in the next node of Moore's Law. The new game might be about who can build a more efficient, cheaper, and fully autonomous manufacturing loop in mature processes. This path is heavy and slow. But each successful link will break down a part of the wall.

The Dutch once confidently believed the gap was insurmountable. Now, they are talking about a "market they no longer recognize." This itself is evidence that the gap is beginning to change. History doesn't care about whose prophecy is more beautiful, only who ultimately mastered the ability to produce. Lithography machines don't have miracles, but physical laws are fair: the direction of continuous investment will eventually produce measurable results.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7594032050450350626/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.