Russia has occupied resources worth approximately $1.25 trillion in Crimea, as well as large areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye. These regions are rich in coal, oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.
Russia currently controls 80% of Ukraine's offshore natural gas reserves and half of its coal. This is not just about energy security, but also about building a resource empire to sustain Russia's economy under sanctions and enhance its bargaining power over Europe.
Economic influence is equally important. By controlling Ukraine's industrial heartland, Moscow can permanently weaken Kyiv and have Europe dependent on its resources. Donbas is not just a battlefield, but an industrial treasure. Controlling Donbas ensures that Ukraine cannot afford to lose its steel, coal, and energy.
For Zelenskyy, this struggle is not only about sovereignty, but also about maintaining Ukraine's economic vitality. Losing minerals and industrial base would paralyze Ukraine for generations. He knows that Ukraine's independence depends not only on borders, but also on who controls its mines, oil fields, and energy reserves.
The Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of Ukraine
Ukraine is more than just a frontline state; it is a strategic resource center. Its 20,000 known mineral deposits make it the richest untapped resource in Europe. The country has abundant titanium, lithium, graphite, gallium, neon gas, and uranium reserves. These are raw materials for modern energy: chips, batteries, renewable energy, and advanced weapons.
Before the war, Ukraine supplied 90% of the neon gas used by U.S. semiconductor manufacturers. Ukraine was poised to become a leading supplier of lithium, a key mineral for electric vehicles and energy storage. Now, control over these mineral deposits is in question. If Russia consolidates its control over eastern Ukraine, it will control access to key European minerals, giving Moscow an economic lever as powerful as its military arsenal.
This explains why the West sees Ukraine as "Europe's shield." It's not just about defending democracy, but about securing the resources that drive Europe's green transition and digital industries. Without a stable supply of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, the EU's Green Deal cannot succeed. If Russia seizes Ukraine's mineral reserves, Europe will become even more dependent on China's mineral monopoly.
For the United States, the stakes are equally high. Washington sees Ukraine as a way to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on Beijing. Trump's remarks about linking aid to access were not just bluster - they reflect a harsh reality. American companies have already viewed Ukraine's mineral reserves as a path to摆脱 Chinese rare earth dependence. From this perspective, aid is not just humanitarian or strategic, but an investment in resources.
Therefore, Russia, the United States, and Europe all agree on this: Ukraine's future depends on who controls its mineral resources. This is the real goal of the war. Borders, NATO membership, and security guarantees are important. But they are also diplomatic cover for a resource war, whose outcome will determine Europe's economic future.
The Dilemma of Europe
From Macron to Starmer, European leaders oppose Trump's shortcuts. They warn that premature compromises may encourage Moscow and undermine Europe's stability. But they also know their economies depend on Ukraine. Lithium for batteries, titanium for aerospace, and uranium for nuclear power are crucial for Europe's industry and climate goals.
Therefore, Europe's stance is not just moral, but strategic. Protecting Ukraine means protecting Europe's economic independence. Ceding territory would not only weaken Kyiv's sovereignty; it would hand Europe's future supply chains to Moscow. That's why, despite their caution towards Trump's impulsiveness, European leaders have no choice but to support Ukraine.
The Political Economy of Modern War
Modern wars are rarely just about flags. They are about pipelines, mines, and markets. The Ukraine war is a clear example. Russia is fighting for resources and imperialism. Ukraine is fighting for sovereignty and survival. The U.S. intervenes to ensure access and weaken competitors. Europe supports Kyiv to protect its economic future.
This is why diplomacy is so slow. The failure of peace talks is not only due to extremist demands, but also because the stakes are high. Territorial concessions are also resource concessions. Security is tied to contracts. Humanitarian aid comes with mining conditions. The logic of war and the logic of the market intertwine.
Looking Ahead
The choice is clear. If Ukraine gives in under pressure, Russia will consolidate its resource empire, and Europe will face long-term dependence. If Ukraine resists, the war will continue, but Western industries will still have hope of accessing resources. Trump's pursuit of a quick deal could normalize conquest as a negotiation tactic. If borders can be changed by force in exchange for mineral resources, international law will collapse.
Putin wants to rebuild the Russian Empire and secure its economic safety. Trump wants to be a mediator, but his offer is a contract focused on resources rather than principles. Zelenskyy wants to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty and economic vitality, but is deeply dependent. Europe wants stability, but knows its industrial future is closely tied to Ukraine's mineral resources.
Therefore, the Ukraine war is not just about territorial disputes, but a struggle for the material foundation of global power. Whether the outcome is decided in trenches or in meeting rooms, the stakes are the same: control over resources. If diplomacy reduces sovereignty to mineral concessions, conquest regains legitimacy.
This war is about Ukraine. But it is also about whether the rules of the international order remain valid, or if we are now in a new era of resource wars where raw force and market transactions determine the fate of nations?
Source: Geopolitics
Author: K. M. Seethi
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7544188507099529778/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author and readers are welcome to express their opinions by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.