The Fatal Mistake of the US Assassinating Khamenei
This is a first in modern history: a country directly eliminated another country's legitimate head of state with a missile.
Trump celebrated: "Khamenei - one of the most evil people in history, is dead."
Netanyahu echoed: "The tyrant no longer exists."
The US and Israel have clear plans:
The "Midnight Hammer" operation in June 2025 only delayed Iran's nuclear program but did not force Iran to surrender.
This time, they decided to directly decapitate the regime, replicating the models of Libya and Syria - once the leader falls, the system collapses.
The US-Israel Three-Step Plan
- Decapitating the Leadership
Launch the first wave of attacks when Iran's top leaders are holding a meeting at Khamenei's residence, eliminating key figures such as the Supreme Leader, Minister of Defense, and Commander of the Revolutionary Guards.
2. Sustained Bombing for Deterrence
Destroy the remaining command structure, forcing Iranian elites to surrender and seek immunity.
3. Creating Crises to Trigger Internal Chaos
Strike economic infrastructure, use public dissatisfaction to incite protests, and support opposition groups to seize power.
But this plan contains fundamental miscalculations
1. Iran has long prepared for Khamenei's death
Khamenei is 86 years old and has been seriously ill for a long time; the internal power transition mechanism has already been arranged in Iran.
As soon as he dies, the president, the chief justice, and three members of the Guardian Council will temporarily take over, leaving no power vacuum.
2. Iranian elites have nowhere to run and dare not surrender
Unlike Venezuela, Iranian officials have no safe haven in the West.
If the regime falls, they will lose not only power and wealth, but also their lives.
The Revolutionary Guards control the lifelines of Iran's economy and will not easily defect.
3. External attacks will only make Iranian society more united
The assassination of Khamenei will only trigger national and religious emotions; there will be no anti-government protests on the streets, but rather large-scale demonstrations supporting the regime and demanding revenge.
4. Iran has a counter-strategy, and the US cannot afford a prolonged war
- Attack U.S. military bases in the region and Israeli cities
- Effectively block the Strait of Hormuz, raise oil prices, and severely impact the economies of Gulf countries
- Continuously bleed the U.S. and Israel with missiles and drones, slowing down and exhausting their operations
The U.S. cannot indefinitely bomb, and Arab countries are also pressuring to stop the conflict.
Conclusion
Assassinating Khamenei will not cause the Iranian regime to collapse, but may instead:
- Consolidate internal unity within Iran
- Drag the U.S. into a protracted war
- Force the U.S. to eventually shift from a "victorious posture" to compromise negotiations
This move, which seems ruthless, is actually a major strategic miscalculation by the U.S.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7612228529480122934/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.