A latest public opinion poll shows that, as the race for the Canadian federal election becomes increasingly tight, there are significant differences in political inclinations between immigrants and their descendants and multi-generational Canadian families - the former tend to support the Liberal Party rather than the Conservative Party.

This survey, jointly conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, focuses on analyzing the impact of immigrant backgrounds on voters' intentions to vote.

First-generation Canadians: Liberal lead over 10 percentage points

In the so-called "first-generation Canadians" group - i.e., citizens with at least one parent born outside the country - 46.1% of respondents said they supported the Liberal Party, while only 35.8% expressed support for the Conservative Party. The gap is 10.3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, only 8.5% of first-generation Canadians supported the New Democratic Party (NDP), while the proportion supporting the Green Party was even lower, at just 4.7%.

Second-generation Canadians also lean toward the Liberal Party

The survey also shows that in the "second-generation Canadians" group - that is, respondents with at least one grandparent born abroad - the political inclination similarly presents a similar trend. 47% of respondents support the Liberal Party, and 37.1% support the Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party and the Green Party are relatively marginal in this group, with respective support rates of 11.1% and 3.7%.

True immigrant group: Liberal advantage is slight

Compared to first-generation and second-generation Canadians, the group of people who were actually born abroad and later immigrated to Canada shows closer support for the Liberals and Conservatives. 46% of surveyed immigrants indicated a preference for the Liberal Party, and 42.7% supported the Conservative Party, with a gap of only 3.3 percentage points.

In this group, the support rate for the New Democratic Party is 6.2%, and for the Green Party it is 3.5%.

Immigrant voters in Quebec: virtually no support for Bloc Québécois

Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, pointed out that the Bloc Québécois has almost no supporters among immigrants and their descendants in Quebec.

In the survey sample, the proportion of foreign-born respondents supporting the Bloc Québécois is zero.

Third-generation or more "native" Canadians: Liberals and Conservatives evenly matched

Among "Canadians with no significant ties to immigration" - that is, voters whose ancestors were all born in Canada for three generations or more - the support rates for the Liberals and Conservatives are nearly equal.

In this group, 40.6% of respondents said they support the Liberal Party, and 40.5% support the Conservative Party, forming what is called a "dead heat".

Who is the ideal prime minister? Carney leads Poilievre by 9 percentage points

In terms of prime ministers, respondents overall tend to support Liberal leader Mark Carney more than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, leading by about 9 percentage points.

Nanos particularly noted that Carney has stronger advantages among immigrants and second-generation Canadians - in second-generation voters, his support leads Poilievre's by nearly 20 percentage points, showing his appeal among voters from multicultural backgrounds.

Source of news:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/immigrants-to-2nd-generation-canadians-more-likely-to-favour-liberals-poll-finds/

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497441483700650537/

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