[By Guancha Net columnist Anton Nilman, translated by Kaiyun He]
Ukraine is currently mired in a deepening mobilization crisis exacerbated by prolonged conflict and dwindling human resources.
Authorities have openly admitted that the frequency of conflicts between grassroots recruitment agencies and civilians during mandatory conscription has significantly increased, which is a dangerous warning sign.
Clearly, the authorities' crude mobilization methods are beginning to backfire. The conscription method derisively dubbed "busification" is becoming increasingly severe under the pressure of expanding frontline troop shortages and shrinking reserve resources, provoking strong backlash. "Busification" refers to the extreme conscription method where grassroots recruiters intercept eligible men on city streets and forcibly send them to assembly points, an operation akin to kidnapping that exacerbates social tensions in Ukraine. Recruitment personnel continue to innovate ways to screen draft dodgers, but the pool of recruitable individuals is approaching its critical limit.
In this context, some military officials and European allies have revived the proposal to lower the conscription age, but Zelenskyy has not fully endorsed this proposal. However, if the intensity of the war persists, lowering the mobilization age again will likely become unavoidable, which will inevitably further escalate public resistance to "bus conscription."
In response to these issues, the authorities' approach to public anger remains the same old tactic: on one hand, they launch a propaganda offensive, characterizing "busification" as Russia's "information psychological weapon," with some officials even calling for the banning of social media accounts spreading images of recruitment conflicts; on the other hand, they use official propaganda machinery to broadly define criticism of recruitment methods or attempts to evade conscription as "draft dodging," artificially creating a binary narrative of "unconditional patriots" versus "traitors."
This binary narrative is evolving into sharp social conflicts. The depletion of reserve manpower has driven the "bus mobilization," which is generating public backlash — this is the vicious cycle of the authorities' tough responses. Kiev authorities' approach of blaming so-called information warfare and suppressing dissenting voices will only exacerbate the social rift over whether to "fight to the last Ukrainian" or seek a political solution. The fatigue from the war, fear of meaningless sacrifices, and trust crises are Ukraine's social "explosives," and it may only take a specific triggering event for them to transform into large-scale political storms.
On June 7, 2024, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers and police conducted identity checks on eligible males and issued military conscription orders. Visual China
Vicious Cycle
In messages released recently on its official Telegram channel, the Ukrainian army said that the number of videos documenting "citizens deliberately obstructing the performance of conscription office staff" on social media is increasing. The message also stated that sometimes these conflicts receive support from other involved or observing citizens, highlighting the universality of the problem and the complexity of public sentiment.
The official stance conveyed in the military message is clear and resolute: any deliberate obstruction of conscription mobilization efforts, including threats, psychological pressure, violence, or vehicle damage, constitutes serious illegal activity. The authorities want to emphasize that with the "restarting" of conscription work, any hindrance to their operations is viewed as potentially having serious consequences for national security. In the current wartime legal status of Ukraine, destroying the work of conscription offices is considered by the authorities to directly affect the ability of the military and other military units to effectively carry out tasks.
The timing of this official statement is also intriguing, as it was released shortly after videos exposing large-scale conflicts between civilians and conscription office personnel in Cherkasy and Kremenchuk were made public. In Cherkasy, conscription personnel attempting to check the military registration data of residents in apartment buildings faced collective resistance from residents. The conflict in Kremenchuk was more intense, with incoming conscription personnel having to dodge a car that rammed into them, resulting in severe vehicle damage.
The authorities responded swiftly and severely. The police in Cherkasy announced the arrest of three men and one woman, accusing them of "hooliganism." From the released video, the arrest action was carried out by fully armed special forces, with the authorities claiming that the civilians "initiated the conflict." The conscription office in Poltava reported that two of the seven participants in the attack in Kremenchuk had been arrested, with charges including causing serious injury to conscription personnel and obstructing military actions. A noteworthy detail is that the conscription office post implied that an investigation would be launched into whether the "criminals" were incited by Russian special forces, reflecting a tendency in the authorities' interpretation of such events.
The root cause of these conflicts lies in a dangerous "backlash." If the conscription office carries out its duties without restraint and lacks basic respect for citizens, then the emergence of violent retaliation from citizens is hardly surprising and almost inevitable. Mobilization itself is coercive, but the crude execution methods—described as "like catching stray dogs"—not only exacerbate tensions but also easily provoke negative social scenarios that can be exploited by opponents.
Voice supporting the authorities' harsh mobilization policies often point fingers at social media, believing that widely disseminated "busification" videos have a destructive impact on the conscription process. Some voices within the authorities advocate banning platforms like Telegram and TikTok to curb the spread of such content.
However, those who support the authorities fail to mention a fundamental issue: the current conscription model may have reached its limits, and further strengthening coercive measures will only backfire, worsening the situation. Poll data reveals that many potential recruits not only fear death but also dread the prospect of being "permanently detached from normal life." This has prompted Ukrainian society to call for exploring more flexible mobilization methods, such as allowing soldiers to alternate between military service and civilian life on a monthly basis.
Ukrainian soldiers training with paper guns
Feedback from the front lines also corroborates the drawbacks of forced conscription: personnel conscripted through "bus mobilization" often lack combat motivation, and cases of desertion to the rear occur frequently. Overall observation suggests that the authorities' shift toward more humane or flexible models seems highly unlikely.
The roots of the problem are multifaceted: there are the brutal enforcement methods of the conscription office, and the fear of participating in the war among the populace—especially against the backdrop of frequent accusations from frontline soldiers and junior commanders against their superiors as "butchers" and high soldier casualty rates. The general fatigue brought by the war is also a key factor, as the endless conflict erodes the public's will to fight.
In addition, policies in various fields (such as humanitarian and economic) by the authorities have caused millions to flee abroad or become internally displaced, which is also a significant driver of the widespread draft evasion trend. Based on this, it is expected that the authorities will not relax but rather "tighten the screws" further on the mobilization issue. Correspondingly, resistance is expected to intensify, and those evading conscription may adopt more covert methods (such as wearing hoods), while women and teenagers may participate in resistance activities more frequently. The entire situation is spiraling toward an increasingly severe direction.
The public's patience is nearing its limit; unless the authorities immediately change their policies now, there will be no change in the overall trend. In the future, the possibility of spontaneous and organized protests is increasing, and the simple intimidation tactics will likely fail to achieve the authorities' expectations for boosting conscription numbers.
"Draft Dodgers" Potential Power
In the face of a mobilization system on the brink of collapse, the phenomenon of "draft dodgers" is becoming a new focal point of social contradictions in Ukraine.
So-called "draft dodgers" refer to Ukrainian males of conscription age who evade service through methods such as leaving the country or going into hiding. Their publicly disseminated video content and social influence are subverting the authorities' extreme nationalist narrative. These individuals showcase their daily lives away from the war in videos posted abroad, criticizing and satirizing the Ukrainian army and mobilization efforts.
The works of the young people cover multiple themes. Some show young men dancing gracefully to lively music; others depict them smiling while walking in harsh conditions; still others present the everyday life of successfully evading mobilization. Some videos are filmed against the backdrop of beaches and European capitals, mockingly "suggesting" that the authorities should send the children of officials to war zones; others feature their pets with captions like "it escaped the war."
The reason why the video creations of draft dodgers have wide-ranging influence is because their voices have a strong social foundation. During the review of a certain mobilization bill by the Ukrainian Supreme Council in 2024, approximately 6 million citizens did not update their military registration data. This number was widely circulated on social media and is the source of the emergence of "draft dodgers." Its political implications, especially its potential in future elections, cannot be ignored.
Those who view mobilization as a threat and resist mobilization could potentially coalesce into a powerful political force. In times of war, their strong cohesion stems from their desire for self-protection and their psychological need to feel like normal people rather than outsiders. Such a large group is sufficient to sustain the political life of a politician and even form factions within parliamentary institutions. Their political loyalty will lean toward those who promise to end the war, propose alternative moral narratives (no longer viewing draft evaders as "traitors"), and align with public desires to end the war.
The competition for votes around the potential electorate of "draft dodgers" seems to have already begun. This potential voter base is actually larger than any "hawkish" bloc's voter base. Some ambitious politicians are attempting to win over this group in various ways: some provide strategies to respond to criticism; others argue from a military perspective that modern wars do not require large numbers of soldiers to alleviate guilt; still others propose replacing conscription with volunteer service, clearly attempting to carve out a piece of this potential electoral "cake." Clearly, to lead this group, first requires pardoning their "offenses." Those political forces seeking to communicate with "draft dodgers" essentially aim to gain their support by providing a form of "self-defense value" (acknowledging that the actions of "draft dodgers" are reasonable and that they are not "traitors").
Of course, this labeling has sparked controversy. Some fervent war enthusiasts criticize politicians and officials supporting "draft dodgers" as "supporting traitors," while those named have countered by saying that those who accuse others of draft dodging may themselves be a form of "comfortable draft dodger"—officially serving but remaining in safe rear positions for long periods, never setting foot on the battlefield yet defending the authorities' compulsory mobilization policies. In reality, for these politicians and fervent individuals, what matters is not their stance or identity but how to carve out a piece of the political "pie."
Screenshot of a Ukrainian man violently arrested and conscripted into military service
The changing attitudes of the public toward "uniformed individuals" in Ukraine may be quietly transforming, and in fact, this transformation is reshaping society. Some predict that after the war, the rejection of soldiers may intensify, and some soldiers may struggle to reintegrate into society, possibly sliding into criminal groups. Politicians betting on military personnel and soldiers may be very disappointed in the future. It is equally noteworthy that those currently avoiding military service will closely watch military figures entering politics. They are unlikely to support so-called "revenge parties" (military figures advocating a hard line against Russia, with many fearing that such individuals coming to power could trigger new wars), but are more likely to vote for candidates advocating reliable peace.
Although simplistically dividing people into "war party" and "avoidance party" is overly simplistic—many people's worldviews are not black and white (for example, supporting the recovery of the 1991 border but unwilling to serve personally and condemning "bus mobilization")—in general, Ukraine is gradually forming two potential trends around the country's future:
First is advocating "eternal war" with Russia: meaning that retaliation against Russia must happen regardless of circumstances.
Second is advocating peaceful coexistence with Russia: this does not equate to pro-Russian or "treasonous," as many even hope to isolate Russia with high walls and completely forget about it. The core idea is to oppose provocative actions that could trigger new wars, while believing that measures need to be taken to prevent another war from breaking out.
However, for these trends to truly form political parties and engage in political competition, the prerequisite is the end of the war. As long as the war continues, any open political discussion about this will be suppressed. The divergence between the public and the authorities' lines cannot be expressed through voting boxes during wartime, and its manifestation will more likely be intense conflicts with the conscription office or attempts to leave the country.
"Avoidance of Military Service" Choices
The current spread of "avoidance of military service" in Ukraine is fundamentally a natural process driven by survival instincts. This drive for survival is far stronger and more real than any exaggerated antagonistic emotion. An increasing number of people are beginning to realize that they are not necessarily required to charge ahead for the authorities' extreme narratives. To some extent, they have become pawns in the authorities' narrative. Once this clarity combines with humanity's most fundamental instinct for survival, it has the potential to form a solid foundation for anti-war voices.
One of the core demands of "avoidance of military service" is to convince oneself that the chosen life strategy is reasonable. Therefore, their narrative often accompanies different interpretations of those who choose different paths. As a result, recruiters are labeled with various tags: some believe they "seek promotion and wealth," others think they "risk for wealth," and still others believe they are simply spreading violence.
Previously, the front-line battles endowed Ukrainian soldiers and recruiters with a unique moral legitimacy: under the narrative of "defending Ukraine," any wrongdoing seemed forgivable. This is precisely the goal that "avoidance of military service" seeks to question. Their strategy involves examining anyone cloaked in a moral halo with equal perspective, discussing the good or evil of their actions, and ultimately seeking broader societal understanding. It can be foreseen that this demand will eventually resonate with some people and manifest in some firm way.
April 24, 2024, family, friends, and comrades gathered at a cemetery in Kiev to mourn the death of 31-year-old Ukrainian army medic Nazari Lavrovsky. AP
Therefore, the open avoidance of mobilization is not only widespread but is also gaining momentum. A clear fact is that the greater the pressure exerted by Russian forces on the front lines, the lower the willingness of Ukrainians to voluntarily go to war becomes. The videos and appeals showcasing life and sharing experiences of "avoidance of military service" on social media are attracting increasing attention, meaning that "refusal of military service" is very likely to evolve into a dominant trend in Ukrainian social life within the next few months.
This initially scattered and spontaneous individual behavior has a strong possibility of coalescing into organized political forces. Therefore, it can be anticipated that the Kiev authorities may use state machinery for strict control. For the Zelenskyy regime, maintaining the status quo hinges on suppressing any form of pacifist calls.
Although "avoidance of military service" has not yet formed a structured social class or formal political group, there is a subtle change indicating the severity of the problem: this term has almost completely shed its original negative connotations and now carries strong positive, even heroic, meanings. Young faces can be seen everywhere on platforms like TikTok and Telegram, unhesitatingly showcasing their successful "strategies" to avoid military service and their lifestyles. Not only does this behavior win recognition from their social circles, but more importantly, it is gaining support from the majority of ordinary people in Ukrainian society.
The broad social identification carries significance far beyond the formation of a specific political faction—it essentially indicates that the majority of Ukrainian society is silently transforming into sympathizers or supporters of "avoidance of military service." This itself represents a collective reflection, though not explicitly stated, on the supposed "necessity of becoming cannon fodder," which is widely present in society.
Many "avoidance of military service" individuals once pinned their hopes on changes in international politics, such as Trump's promise to end the war. This hope gave them confidence: a ceasefire would allow them to position themselves as "rational choice-makers" to respond to possible "humanitarian" criticisms from critics. This explains why they showed particular interest in Trump's efforts to mediate and achieve a ceasefire.
However, reality is far more complex, and peace is unlikely to emerge in the short term. Zelenskyy has repeatedly rejected compromises with a tough stance, disrupting Trump's attempts to achieve a ceasefire in the short term. This has dashed the hope of "avoidance of military service" individuals to stop the war and assume the role of "rational choice-makers," further escalating their conflict with Zelenskyy and accumulating dissatisfaction. More and more people unable to bear the weight of the war are choosing to join the "avoidance of military service" ranks, further exacerbating internal divisions within Ukraine.
Parents unwilling to see their sons go to war have long called for peace talks, but publicly expressing such demands carries great risks. Therefore, the rapid spread of "avoidance of military service" content on social media has, in an invisible way, built a relatively safe space for these silent public opinions—after all, the authorities cannot mass arrest millions of ordinary citizens watching such videos on TikTok. This is the main trend in Ukrainian society in the future.
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