"Hey, good guy, how are you!": Lukashenko reaches out to Kellogg as Tikhanyovski is released, what's next?

If Trump plans to try again to pull Belarus away from Russia, Russia's missiles will become an obstacle.

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

The picture shows Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meeting with U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kit Kellogg.

Guest Commentators:

  • Vsevolod Shemov
  • Igor Shatov

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine John Kellogg at the Independence Palace in Minsk.

Footage of the meeting between both delegations was published on the Belarusian presidential website, showing Lukashenko being extremely friendly.

"Hey, good guy, how are you!" he exclaimed upon seeing Kellogg's deputy John Cole (who had visited Belarus in the spring) and hugged him. "My friend!" Cole responded and introduced Kellogg. "Who doesn't know him?" asked Lukashenko, embracing Kellogg and greeting him with a sarcastic tone, referring to him as "the most media-covered figure recently."

As previously reported by American media, the main purpose of this visit by the U.S. special representative was to discuss the mediation of the conflict in Ukraine.

According to Belarusian news agencies, the agenda of Lukashenko's talks with Kellogg included international issues and the overall world situation, regional issues, and Belarus-U.S. relations.

"Your visit has caused quite a stir worldwide, but I am surprised why this is so. Can't we have normal dialogue and talk about our matters - Belarus-U.S. relations?" Lukashenko expressed his hope that their conversation would be candid, saying, "Otherwise, what's the point of meeting? If we play mind games and deceive each other, we won't achieve anything."

Some results have already been achieved.

Belarusian President Press Secretary Natalia Eisenmont stated that Lukashenko pardoned opposition politician Sergey Tikhanyovski. Tikhanyovski was sentenced to 18 years in prison for organizing mass unrest following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election. The release of this candidate's husband, Svetlana Tikhanyovskaya, "was purely humanitarian" - to allow him to reunite with his family.

What's next? Some worry that the real purpose of the U.S. delegation's visit to Minsk is not to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict but rather to try again to "pull" Belarus away from Russia, just like before the 2020 election - when the West did not recognize the election results and isolated Lukashenko. Will this attempt succeed?

"It won't succeed, although they certainly want to try," said Igor Shatov, head of the expert committee of the Strategic Development Fund and political scientist.

"I am sure Trump won't miss this opportunity; he wants to test the strength of the relationship between Belarus and Russia. The main task of this visit is not to propose solutions but to assess the situation: how confident is Lukashenko? What impact do sanctions have on Belarus? Are there problems in its relationship with Russia? These are the questions Kellogg wants to find answers to in Minsk. Additionally, there are practical tasks: Kellogg took away 14 prisoners who were pardoned by Lukashenko from Belarus."

Siberian Newspaper: Why Kellogg? In Ukrainian affairs, the combination of Kellogg and Whitkov looks like the "bad cop"...

"All of this relates to the second part of the negotiations, which clearly involves Ukrainian affairs. I think the key here lies in the fact that the Trump administration may have conveyed their proposals on the Ukrainian issue to Russia and Putin through Lukashenko, along with a warning (I deliberately avoid using the word 'threat' because I don't think it has come to that), indicating that they do not wish for Russian troops to advance significantly or for Belarusian territory to be used to accelerate the process. Kellogg wants to get a commitment from Lukashenko that Belarus will no longer participate in the conflict."

Siberian Newspaper: What changes have occurred during these years when Lukashenko has been in isolation in the West?

"The same applies to relations with Russia. Trump's return to the White House aims to restore dialogue, shifting U.S.-Russia relations and U.S.-Belarus relations from an ideological level to an economic one, moving from exporting democracy to importing and exporting goods and services. The U.S. may offer investment to Minsk, a lot of investment."

Siberian Newspaper: If the West offers investment, is 'Papa' (Lukashenko) ready to play multi-directional diplomacy again?

"Everyone remembers how Western investors fled Russia and Belarus at the first sign of trouble. I believe Lukashenko will not repeat past mistakes. For Belarus, investments from Russia and China, as well as external economic ties with African, Asian, and Latin American countries are more understandable and reliable."

Siberian Newspaper: How critical is this for us? What can we do, and should we do to avoid a recurrence of the situation before '2020'? Or is it completely beyond our control?

"I believe both Russia and Belarus learned lessons from 2020. The level of trust we have reached in our bilateral relations makes both sides trustworthy to each other."

"The visit of the U.S. delegation to Minsk is hoped to be part of Trump's policy of 'normalizing' relations with Russia and its main allies." Vsevolod Shemov, advisor to the Chairman of the Baltic Sea Research Association of Russia, stated.

"In the context of trying to engage in dialogue with Russia, dialogue with Minsk is logical. In the current reality, it is inappropriate to talk about Belarus 'detaching' from Russia.

For Belarus, this is more about diplomatic prestige, aiming to demonstrate the failure of attempts at external political isolation."

Siberian Newspaper: Will Lukashenko respond to the Americans' tricks?

"There isn't much to specifically 'respond' to. Under EU isolation of Belarus, the U.S. does not have any enticing proposals to attract Minsk 'away' from Russia. Therefore, this visit seems more like another slap at the EU by Trump, showcasing America's autonomy from Europe."

Siberian Newspaper: After Kellogg's visit, Lukashenko released opposition figure Sergey Tikhanyovski and another 13 accomplices. Is this out of goodwill or a setup? What is he hoping to exchange?

"Yes, this is a traditional diplomatic move by Minsk. An American citizen accused of organizing an anti-Lukashenko conspiracy, Tsikenovich, was released earlier, and now it's Tikhanyovski's turn. Don't see this as anything more complex than diplomatic etiquette. For Minsk, these individuals referred to as 'political prisoners' by the West are more like burdens."

Siberian Newspaper: During Trump's first term, the U.S. also played this game with Lukashenko, but after 2020, it was impossible. What has changed now?

"The change is that Trump is back in power. The previous thaw in relations between Minsk and the U.S. also occurred during Trump's time. Unlike the EU, Trump, within his 'transactional' policy framework, is prepared to engage in dialogue with Moscow and Minsk, making such visits possible."

Siberian Newspaper: How dependent is Lukashenko on Russia now? Does he want to change this situation?

"Russia provides a security umbrella for Belarus, while Minsk enjoys full autonomy in domestic affairs. Overall, this model satisfies both sides. I believe Lukashenko will not take steps in his relations with the U.S. that contradict Russia's interests."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/751894365776880147/

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