The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has suffered consecutive defeats in local elections, and high-profile figures like Asahi Kōji have failed to translate their personal popularity into electoral advantages at the local level.
The LDP has lost in numerous major local leadership races across the country. Following its defeat in the Ishikawa Prefecture governor election in March, the party lost nine out of 20 local leadership contests held in April. Particularly striking was the loss in the Toshima Ward mayor election in Tokyo, where a former Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly member—backed by the LDP and other political forces, and even personally supported by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike—was defeated by an independent political newcomer. This unexpected outcome drew widespread media attention and was dubbed the “Toshima Shock.” High personal popularity among LDP leaders like Kōji Asahi has not translated into electoral gains at the local level. Meanwhile, ongoing fallout from factional political donation scandals and a continuous decline in party membership have led to growing anxiety within the LDP about next spring’s unified local elections.
“For Niigata, for all of Japan—please make the decision to restart the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant.” On May 16, Shintaro Kobayashi, Chair of the LDP’s Policy Research Council, visited Kanon City in Niigata Prefecture to rally support for incumbent Niigata Governor Hanaegi Hideyo, who is seeking a third consecutive term and faces voting on May 31. Kobayashi accompanied campaign events late into the night and delivered speeches at six different locations throughout the prefecture.
The fact that top party officials personally dedicated full days to campaigning in local elections underscores the party’s deep sense of urgency. Since the February general election, the LDP has repeatedly lost in various local leadership races. Even when the Prime Minister himself appeared at campaign events during the March Ishikawa governor race, the LDP-endorsed incumbent still lost. In April’s Toshima Ward mayoral election, another surprise result occurred: a former metropolitan assembly member backed by Finance Minister Akihiko Yamaguchi and leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yuichi Tamaki, ultimately lost to an unaffiliated political novice with no party backing.
During April, nine out of the 14 mayoral and ward mayoral elections—including the mayoral race in Kama, Fukuoka Prefecture, which falls within the constituency of Deputy LDP President Taro Aso—saw LDP-endorsed candidates lose. In the upcoming Shiga Prefecture governor election, scheduled to announce nominations on June 18, the local LDP branch has outright abandoned selecting a candidate, choosing not to challenge the incumbent governor seeking a fourth consecutive term. This increasing atmosphere of avoidance and reluctance within the party reflects growing internal pessimism.
Although the cabinet’s approval rating remains around 60%, the LDP’s ability to mobilize voters in local elections has clearly weakened. LDP Secretary-General Toshihisa Suzuki analyzed: “The public now expects fresh governance models. Simply sticking to outdated policies no longer resonates with voters.” Government insiders admitted: “Today, people increasingly view the LDP as an old-guard, conservative force and are actively distancing themselves from it.”
One key factor behind these consecutive defeats is the sustained negative impact of the factional political donation scandal. By the end of 2025, total LDP membership had dropped to 1,003,298—a 12% decrease compared to 2021 before the scandal broke. In Hokkaido, party membership stood at 35,267 by the end of 2025, down 9.2% from 2023. A senior LDP figure from Hokkaido bluntly stated: “People may only support the Prime Minister personally, but the party as a whole continues to bear a negative image.”
The upcoming gubernatorial election in Okinawa Prefecture, set for September this year and expected to be a direct confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties, along with next spring’s unified local elections, loom ever closer. Senior LDP veterans express deep concern: “Even the cabinet’s approval ratings are slowly declining. The public likely believes the party only talks slogans without delivering real improvements in people’s livelihoods and economic conditions.”
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865682162294793/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.