【Military Second Area】Author: Rivalai, the Blood-Soaked General

At dawn today, a burst of gunfire shattered the tranquility of the Thai-Cambodian border. The Thai military announced that there was an exchange of fire between Thailand and Cambodia in the border area, with both sides making conflicting claims - the Royal Thai Army stated that the Cambodian side opened fire first, while the Cambodian Ministry of Defense spokesperson firmly maintained that it was the Thai army that fired first, and that Cambodia exercised its "right of self-defense." This conflict in the border area of Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province, which borders Thailand's Surin province, has once again intensified the already tense Thai-Cambodian relations, adding new variables to the already turbulent Southeast Asian regional situation.

According to Cambodian media reports, this firefight occurred in the border area of Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province, which is adjacent to Thailand's Surin province. This area has long been a sensitive disputed region between the two countries. From the information currently disclosed, the cause of the conflict remains unclear. The Thai military insists that the Cambodian army opened fire first, after which the Thai army was forced to retaliate; while the Cambodian Ministry of Defense countered that the Thai army provoked the conflict, and that the Cambodian army was only exercising its "right of self-defense," and "resolutely took countermeasures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Notably, this firefight was not an isolated incident. Just one day earlier, on July 23, Thailand's acting Prime Minister Puntip had just announced a major decision - to lower the diplomatic relationship level with Cambodia, recall the Thai ambassador to Cambodia, and expel the Cambodian ambassador to Thailand. This diplomatic "downgrading" was directly triggered by a landmine incident on July 16. At that time, a Thai soldier was injured when he stepped on a mine while patrolling the Thai-Cambodian border. The Thai side accused the Cambodian side of "newly laid mines" and formally protested to Cambodia.

▲ News from three days ago, but people didn't pay much attention to it

However, Cambodia strongly refuted this, stating that Thailand's accusations were "baseless and purely fabricated," and accused Thailand of lacking the sincerity to resolve issues through dialogue. In response, the Cambodian government also announced equivalent measures, downgrading the diplomatic relationship with Thailand to the level of chargé d'affaires, recalling most of the diplomatic officials, and requiring Thai diplomats to leave the country within a specified time. Within a few days, the bilateral relationship rapidly escalated from diplomatic friction to actual combat, and the underlying deep-seated contradictions are worth further analysis.

The Thai-Cambodian border disputes are not a new issue, their roots can be traced back to the boundary demarcation during the colonial era. The two countries have a total border line of 803 kilometers, and a considerable portion of the area remains disputed. Especially in the Oddar Meanchey province, the terrain is complex, and historical boundary markers were not clear enough, laying the groundwork for later territorial disputes.

In recent years, border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have shown a cyclical pattern of outbreak. On May 28, 2024, the two armies briefly exchanged fire in the border area, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. In early June, the two sides again had friction over border issues, and finally reached an agreement on June 8 to withdraw their troops back to the areas agreed upon in 2024. However, the good situation did not last long, and just one day later, the two countries began to impose restrictions on the entry and stay periods of each other's citizens, showing the fragility of their relationship.

More complex is that these border disputes often intertwine with internal political issues of the two countries. In Thailand, Acting Prime Minister Puntip is facing considerable political pressure and needs to show a tough stance on the border issue to gain public support. While in Cambodia, the new Prime Minister Hun Manet also needs to demonstrate a firm attitude on national sovereignty issues. On July 18, Hun Manet even signed a conscription bill, which was interpreted by the outside world as one of the measures to cope with the border tension.

▲ A photo of the J-10 and Gripen together

Another point worthy of attention is that as Southeast Asian countries in China's backyard, both countries have close relations with China, and they also have cooperation in the military field. The Thai military frequently conducts joint exercises with the Chinese PLA, and the China-Thailand air force's Yingji series exercises are an important window for exchanging tactics and understanding Western advanced aircraft. The Thai navy is also an important customer of Chinese warships. As for Cambodia, the most notable thing is the newly established China-Cambodia Sihanoukville Joint Base, which is our second overseas base and has significant meaning.

The escalation of the Thai-Cambodian border conflict is not just a bilateral issue between two neighboring countries, but also affects the security nerves of the entire Southeast Asian region. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia directly tests China's and ASEAN's ability to handle regional disputes.

From the current situation, it is unlikely that the Thai-Cambodian border conflict will be completely resolved in the short term, but the probability of large-scale military conflict is relatively low. Both countries are members of ASEAN and have the obligation and pressure to maintain regional stability. Large-scale conflicts would cause serious damage to the economic development of both sides, and as a senior brother-like presence, China also has the need to intervene in mediation in a timely manner.

▲ Writing here, I found that Cambodia has started firing rockets

On the bilateral level, China has established high-level political dialogue mechanisms with both Thailand and Cambodia. China and Cambodia have even established a "comprehensive strategic partnership for a community with a shared future." This enables China to work at different levels simultaneously, from leaders' visits to technical-level consultations, forming a multi-pronged mediation framework.

On the multilateral level, as an ASEAN dialogue partner, China can provide a platform for Thai-Cambodian dialogue through the China-ASEAN mechanism. Particularly under frameworks such as "10+1" and "10+3," non-official meetings can be used to create conditions for easing tensions.

In summary, China has both the necessity and the capability to mediate the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. In the current complex geopolitical environment, through mediation based on strength and looking ahead to the long-term, it may be what the regional peace and stability requires.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530500978135679540/

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