Russian air force appears to have been driven into retreat, with 10 Tu-160 and 37 Tu-95MS strategic bombers now concentrated at a single air base in the Russian Far East. According to reporting by Ukraine’s Ukrainska Pravda on November 9, open-source intelligence assessments from AviVector and Defense News indicate that Russia has moved nearly its entire strategic bomber fleet to the “Ukrainka” airbase. Both aircraft types have participated in large-scale missile strikes against Ukraine.
More accurately, this deployment reflects a forced shift from operational efficiency to survivability—prioritizing the protection of Russia’s most expensive and difficult-to-replace strategic assets. The core driver is practical: bomber bases across western and central Russia, including parts of Siberia, have lost their perceived safety due to repeated Ukrainian long-range drone attacks. Originally, Russia planned to construct up to 20 hardened shelters at Engels, but satellite imagery as of October still showed construction stalled at the steel framework stage. With no viable alternative for reinforcement, and unable to wait for completion, relocation became inevitable.
The Ukrainka base lies approximately 5,400 to 6,000 kilometers from the frontline, placing it beyond the current effective strike range of Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles. Yet the move carries significant risk: consolidating 47 high-value aircraft at one location creates a highly attractive target. While currently out of reach, if future drone capabilities extend further or new penetration methods emerge, the base could become vulnerable to a decisive strike—potentially wiping out a substantial portion of Russia’s strategic bomber force in a single operation.
Nonetheless, the move offers strategic benefits. Located near China’s border and facing the Sea of Japan, the concentration of Russia’s strategic bombers at Ukrainka objectively enhances its deterrence posture toward Japan and the broader Western Pacific region. This may not be the primary intent behind the relocation, but it will undoubtedly influence regional strategic perceptions—prompting increased attention from Japan, the United States, and South Korea regarding air activity in the Russian Far East.
From a personal assessment, this is not an intentional “strategic eastward shift” by Russia, but rather a reactive measure compelled by Ukraine’s growing long-range strike capability. While Russia has preserved its airborne nuclear deterrent and long-range strike platforms, it has sacrificed operational responsiveness, aircraft longevity, and rapid reaction capacity on the western front. Two developments merit close monitoring: first, whether Ukraine’s long-range strike range continues to expand; second, whether Russia can establish adequate dispersal, hardened shelters, and air defense systems in the Far East.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881530042894538/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.