[Military and Weapons Section] Author: Lele

With the highest commander of the Thai army, General Song Wei, visiting China and receiving high-level hospitality, and the official channels of the Thai armed forces openly praising the J-10CE on Langka Island, a classic speculation has emerged — will the Thai Air Force consider purchasing the J-10CE?

▲The timing of Song Wei's visit to China is very special.

If this question had been asked before May, the answer would certainly have been no — the Thai military has always been superstitious about Western equipment performance. Although they have purchased many Chinese weapons, none of the models other than the VT-4 can be considered as mainstays. The J-10CE, as a fully domestically produced fourth-plus-generation fighter, cannot be like the Type 071E dock landing ship, which, after being delivered to Thailand, could have its Western core equipment replaced. Therefore, even though seven J-10Cs were invited to perform in Thailand in March this year and received high praise, at that time, few people thought that the J-10CE would receive an order from Thailand. However, after the air battle between India and Pakistan, the situation changed.

▲The Thai Army has indeed given high praise to the VT-4.

Like most countries, Thailand places great emphasis on the political implications in foreign arms purchases, but its limited national strength and harsh regional environment also make it highly value the actual combat capability of the equipment. This is why the Thai military is willing to go through great trouble to install proven Western equipment in most core equipment while purchasing many high-performance Chinese weapons to ensure the scale of its equipment. Four years ago, the Royal Thai Air Force, considering that the average service life of its F-16 fleet exceeded 30 years and was severely aged, began to prepare for the procurement of 12 new fighters for replacement. Initially, it intended to include the F-35A in its plan, but the United States quickly rejected this proposal.

▲In the short term, the U.S. does not allow the export of F-35A to Thailand.

After a brief hesitation, the Royal Thai Air Force soon focused its attention on the latest versions of the F-16 and "Gripen" fighters, reflecting a rational attitude of "first procuring mature equipment for transitional purposes while mainly focusing on fifth-generation aircraft." By the summer of 2024, Thailand had basically finalized the order for the continued purchase of "Gripen," with only the final signing pending. However, the United States still wanted to give the F-16V another chance and thus agreed to provide a large loan. The Royal Thai Air Force hesitated briefly and then witnessed the historic moment when the J-10CE defeated the "Rafale," which became an option it could not ignore.

▲The U.S. still wants to sell F-16s to Thailand.

The previous reasons for the Royal Thai Air Force not considering the J-10CE included factors such as political influence and higher operating costs due to a lack of equipment foundation. But these issues lose their persuasiveness in light of the reality that Thailand's three armed services have equipped many Chinese weapons, with the average export price of the J-10CE being less than $90 million. The real factor has always been just one: the reliability of the J-10CE or the Chinese air combat system has not been tested in actual combat and is much lower than that of Western equipment. In the field of defense, where there is no room for negligence, the Royal Thai Air Force does not want, nor is it willing to take this risk. When the Pakistani Air Force operated the J-10CE and easily hunted down the "Rafale," which is far superior to the "Gripen," the reliability risk disappeared.

▲The J-10CE solved a major problem.

Once this key issue was resolved, the price, upgrade, and logistics advantages of the J-10CE became very apparent. In this situation, if the Royal Thai Air Force were to abandon the J-10CE, it would need to explain to the government and the public what irreplaceable advantages the F-16V or "Gripen" have compared to the J-10CE. This is similar to the situation where the Royal Thai Navy purchased S-26T submarines years ago, and later, due to Germany's refusal to provide diesel engines, the disagreement has yet to be fully resolved. The reason why the Royal Thai Navy has consistently not accepted Chinese diesel engines is largely because it cannot explain to the outside world why it insisted on German diesel engines in the first place; the whole matter has a "one wrong move leads to more mistakes" feel.

▲The "Gripen" really can't compare with the J-10CE in all aspects.

In addition, the Royal Thai Air Force is the first in the world to truly experience the existence of the Chinese Air Force combat system. Over the years of engaging with the J-10C and J-11B enhanced by the KJ-500, it has gained extraordinary experience. When the performance of the J-10CE was verified through practical combat, the impact on Thailand was comprehensive. From this perspective, the possibility of the J-10CE securing the order for 12 aircraft by Thailand is not low. The latter is currently preparing to replace over 40 old F-16s and seeks to acquire fifth-generation aircraft, which is also quite attractive to AVIC.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507946223753314856/

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