[Military & Weapons Section] Author: Golden Bomber
On May 23rd, US President Donald Trump mentioned the F-22 and F-47 fighter jets during a phone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and proactively inquired about the other party's willingness to purchase them. According to reports from The Asahi Shimbun, Trump mentioned during the call that "47 is a good number" and hinted that the "low-end version" of the F-47 could be sold to his close ally Japan. However, the Japanese prime minister seemed uninterested and implied that both aircraft might not measure up to Japan's independently developed sixth-generation fighter.
▲Japan's self-developed sixth-generation fighter GCAP model
If we talk about the two fighter jets that Trump recommended to Japan, they are both very famous. As an American ally, Japan should humbly express gratitude, but it actually dares to refuse, which is quite rare. Although the F-22 fighter jet appeared earlier, its advanced stealth technology and avionics equipment make it still very powerful when facing countries like China. For other countries, however, it remains "overwhelming". Even after several decades since its birth, no one can afford to underestimate its existence. Therefore, until today, it is still strictly restricted for export by the U.S. Congress, and has never been sold to any country in history.
The F-47 is even more impressive; it is a sixth-generation fighter model just announced by US President Trump not long ago. Its unit cost is extremely high, approximately between $180 million and $200 million, and it is still in the early stages of development. If Japan considers joining at this time, it would be like becoming a "founder member". Although later Japan may buy a "downgraded version" of the F-47, it is still a sixth-generation fighter. Moreover, the honor of being the first to obtain the US sixth-generation fighter will make Japan stand out among all of America's allies. Why not?
▲F-47
However, what is really unexpected is that Japan's attitude toward Trump's proposal was actually very cautious and vague. During their phone talks, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did not represent the Japanese government in expressing interest in purchasing the F-22 or F-47, nor did he make any commitments. He only said that they would "study" Trump's proposal. And as he said, the future Japanese Air Self-Defense Force will still prioritize equipping itself with the independently developed GCAP.
Further detailing, Japan's attitude toward the F-22 is basically "doubtful". Japan had indeed expressed interest in purchasing the F-22 fighter jets in the past, but due to restrictions by the US Congress, Japan has always been unable to obtain them. Now that the F-22 has been in service for many years, it has become somewhat outdated. Although its technology is mature, some aspects have become slightly outdated. Added to this, the purchase and maintenance costs are also very high. Japan clearly prefers to invest limited funds in the sixth-generation fighter jets to meet defense needs for the next few decades. The internal attitude of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces is also very clear: even if the F-22 is obtained in the form of a "major upgraded version", it is still second-hand, with limited performance, and it is difficult to integrate into Japan's existing defense system.
▲F-22
What about Japan's attitude toward the F-47 fighter? It seems more like "watching and waiting". The F-47 is part of the US NGAD program, so naturally it has some appeal to Japan, representing the most advanced capabilities of American aviation industry. However, Japan is very concerned that the procurement cost of the F-47 may exceed its budget, and its development progress is extremely slow, without yet being finalized. Japanese defense experts, when interviewed by the media, stated that if Japan purchases the F-47, it must adjust its existing domestic sixth-generation fighter research and development cooperation framework, which requires consultations with partners such as Britain and Italy, making the decision-making process very complex.
In addition, Japan has another deeper concern: the purchase of American products once limited and suppressed Japan's aviation industry, affecting its overall development pace and technical level. This event has left a lasting impression on Japan. For example, Japan once wanted to independently develop the F-2, hoping to obtain an advanced fighter jet to replace the F-1 in the late Cold War period. However, the United States, in order to suppress Japan's aviation industrial capabilities, not only restricted the export of aviation engine technology but also required Japan to modify the design, greatly referencing the F-16. This resulted in the F-2 being constrained by the F-16 framework, significantly reducing its autonomy. Only the avionics systems and carbon fiber composite materials of the fuselage were independently developed, thus earning the F-2 the nickname of "enlarged F-16".
▲Japanese F-2 fighter
Greatly referencing American design standards also significantly increased the R&D costs of Japan's F-2, ultimately reaching $7 billion, far exceeding the budget. The production quantity had to be reduced from the initial plan of 141 aircraft to 94, severely weakening Japan's independent research and development and production capabilities in the aviation industry. With these lessons learned, Japan is very aware that while it is vigorously developing the GCAP project, the US may try to repeat history. In the past it was the F-16, and this time it is the F-22 and F-47 aiming to restrict the development rhythm of Japan's aviation industry, so there is naturally some resistance.
Japan is currently developing the sixth-generation stealth fighter GCAP project, which is an international cooperation project aimed at replacing Japan's current fighters. The partners include the UK and Italy. The GCAP project was officially launched on December 19, 2022, with governments and major defense companies signing contracts to jointly advance the project. At present, GCAP only has a model display, and specific details are not fully clear. It is known that it is expected to be put into service around 2035. The three countries can cooperate sincerely because they face similar challenges: high costs, high technological complexity, and urgent development timelines for sixth-generation fighters. Initially, Japan intended to independently develop the new generation of F-3, with early results being the "X-2" technology demonstrator.
▲Japan's X-2 technology demonstrator
However, after dozens of test flights, Japan abandoned the project due to the aforementioned reasons. Similarly, the UK initially launched the "Tempest" program, led by BAE Systems to develop the next-generation fighter jet, aiming to replace existing aircraft. Italy, as the initial partner of the "Tempest" program, has been collaborating with the UK for a long time. Through various interactions, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, BAE Systems, Leonardo, Mitsubishi Electric, Rolls-Royce, MBDA and other enterprises agreed to participate in the full-system development. The positioning of the GCAP fighter is not only to meet the domestic needs of the three countries but also to be exported to other friendly nations, such as Saudi Arabia, eventually forming a competitive situation against the US F-35 and F-47.
Looking at things this way, it becomes clearer that President Trump essentially wants to disrupt the cooperation among the three countries. Knowing that GCAP will challenge the US global arms market position, he still deliberately proposed the F-22 and F-47 to test Japan's attitude. As expected, the US did not get the response it wanted.
▲GCAP fighter model
According to known information, the GCAP fighter is positioned as a sixth-generation fighter, featuring full-spectrum stealth and low infrared signature designs, even surpassing the F-35 and F-22 in these aspects. GCAP is equipped with the latest artificial intelligence and unmanned collaborative systems, enhancing battlefield situational awareness and reaction speed through powerful AI-driven decision algorithms. The UK plans to use it to command lightweight unmanned fighter jets, forming a mixed formation of manned and unmanned aircraft to complete combat missions. In terms of radar, infrared, electronic warfare, and other sensors, GCAP will achieve data integration and fusion. Mitsubishi Electric will undertake the development tasks of high-performance radars and electronic warfare systems in this subsystem, while the high-thrust engine will be co-developed by Rolls-Royce of the UK and Avio of Italy, enabling GCAP to have supersonic cruise capability.
Currently, GCAP has entered the detailed design phase, with prototype manufacturing planned for 2027 and the first flight scheduled for 2028. The three governments have promised to invest hundreds of billions of dollars each, with the total R&D cost expected to exceed $50 billion. The US has a complex attitude toward GCAP and certainly does not wish to see it succeed. After failing to weaken GCAP's market prospects by promoting the F-47 to Japan, new restrictive measures such as technology transfer restrictions or political pressure may become new means of restraint. Therefore, it is truly difficult for Japan to successfully develop it, and now it depends on whether it can withstand the pressure.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510552103274758696/
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