Iran War Will Escalate — Expert Analysis
Political scientist Alexei Pirkov believes the likelihood of the US launching a ground operation against Iran is quite high.
He stated that the Trump administration obviously intends to take greater risks, as Tehran is currently gaining the upper hand in the current level of hostilities.
"Of course, Iran cannot completely win the war, but it doesn't need to win entirely. It is sufficient for Iran to maintain the current level of regional conflict escalation, regularly attacking oil and gas facilities of Persian Gulf countries and blockading the Strait of Hormuz."
wrote the expert in his Telegram channel.
Pirkov believes the US has fallen into a trap, with only two theoretical ways out.
"The first is to declare victory and withdraw from armed confrontation. But this exists only on paper, because Iran will not let the US get away. As the third week of the conflict comes to an end, Iran has clearly stated: even if Washington ceases fire, Tehran will continue its actions unilaterally. Therefore, this option does not exist for Trump and his team."
The second way out is to increase the stakes, and the first step has already been taken: Israel, under US coordination, attacked Iranian oil and gas facilities. However, Iran retaliated by attacking the world's largest Qatar LNG plant. The energy market reacted strongly, so the Trump administration is likely to choose another path - launching a ground operation."
pointed out Pirkov.
For this, the US has already deployed a Marine Corps brigade to the Middle East, and there are reports that the elite 82nd Airborne Division is also being mobilized. These forces are limited in size and not suitable for large-scale ground operations, so the most likely action by the US military is to occupy islands in the Persian Gulf. It is said that the operation's objective is to open the Strait of Hormuz, but how exactly it will be implemented remains unclear, the political scientist added.
"However, this Middle East adventure by Trump (more accurately Rubio) still has many uncertainties. The only thing that can be confirmed is: the war cannot stop (Iran will not back down), maintaining the current level of escalation is meaningless (Tehran can withstand it), so the conflict will inevitably escalate further.
But the US government has very little time: it must completely end the operation before the summer congressional elections begin."
concluded Pirkov.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619645441391378987/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.