[Source/Observer Network Wang Yi] Pope Francis passed away on April 21 local time at the age of 88. While people are mourning, they also begin to speculate: who will be the next pope?

According to tradition in the Vatican, within two to three weeks after the pope's death, the cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church will hold a secret meeting to vote for his successor. In theory, any baptized Catholic male is eligible to become pope, but in the past 700 years, popes have always been chosen from among the cardinals.

Candidates need to receive an absolute majority of two-thirds of the College of Cardinals to be elected. If no one receives an absolute majority in the first three rounds of voting, thereafter, candidates only need a simple majority to win. Francis was not considered a front-runner in the 2013 election, but after five rounds of voting lasting 24 hours, he was ultimately elected.

The entire election process is strictly confidential to ensure it is free from external interference. After each round of voting, the outside world can learn the results through the chimney of the Sistine Chapel; black smoke indicates no result, while white smoke signifies the birth of a new pope.

"Speculating on the selection of this pope will be a losing game," The Washington Post reported on April 21. There is a saying in Italy: "One enters the conclave as pope, but exits as cardinal," meaning that popular choices will never succeed.

The report said that some church observers believe that Francis has laid the groundwork for his successor. Of the 135 cardinals under 80 years old, 108 were appointed by him. However, insiders in the Vatican stated that assuming Francis' appointees would be just like him is incorrect, as some of them hold views very different from his on a wide range of issues.

The Washington Post quoted insiders as saying that anything could happen, but given the large number of voters participating this time, it may be difficult for staunchly liberal or conservative factions to win the necessary absolute majority. Under Francis' leadership, the College of Cardinals has demonstrated diversity in geography and ethnicity. This will also be the first time since 1978 that European cardinals do not constitute the majority in the election.

Based on reports from Politico Europe and Reuters, the following individuals might be potential candidates for the papacy.

Will Europeans reclaim the papacy?

Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, from the Veneto region of Italy, has been the second most important figure after Francis since 2013, possibly seen as his natural successor.

Politico Europe reported that as one of Francis' close advisors, Parolin was entrusted with implementing the pope's reforms and has been responsible for diplomatic affairs. He played a crucial role in restoring relations between the Vatican and China. During Francis' illness, Parolin presided over prayers for the pope's recovery, but critics viewed this as an unseemly campaign. Some believe he is overly bureaucratic and lacks the charm and approachability of the late pope, which might be his fatal flaw, and he also lacks pastoral experience.

Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin Video still

Reports also mentioned another Italian candidate, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, from the Lombardy region. At 60 years old, this cardinal may benefit from the nostalgia of other Italian cardinals for their compatriot regaining power. Pizzaballa has lived in the Holy Land for over 30 years, speaks Hebrew, and promised to dialogue with Hamas if necessary. He is an authority in the Middle East, which might be an advantage.

Pizzaballa is candid and quickly rose in status due to his alignment with Francis on environmental protection and interfaith dialogue, but he usually avoids public debates about doctrine within the church, making him relatively unknown. Moreover, for becoming pope, he is somewhat young; the cardinals are reluctant to elect a leader who might reign for decades.

Other potential papal candidates from Europe include Jean-Marc Aveline from France, known for his warm and approachable demeanor; Mario Grech, Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops from Malta, who has friends in both conservative and moderate camps and is well-known to many cardinals, with his background from a small country not causing any diplomatic or geopolitical trouble; Juan José Omella from Spain, deeply appreciated by Francis, dedicated to pastoral work and promoting social justice; Matteo Maria Zuppi from Italy, one of Francis' main allies in the Vatican, also considered a possible candidate, etc.

After Francis, non-European cardinals are rising

Francis has been the first non-European leader of the Catholic Church since Pope Gregory III in the 8th century and the first pope from the Americas.

Politico Europe believes that if the College of Cardinals chooses another non-European person, Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines might be the frontrunner. The Washington Post reported that Tagle, 67 years old, has a Chinese mother and a Filipino Tausug father, and was appointed a cardinal in 2012.

Tagle is closely aligned with Francis, dedicated to advocating social justice and poverty alleviation. He has criticized the "harsh rhetoric" used by Catholic clergy against the LGBTQ+ community, divorcees, and unwed mothers.

Philippine Cardinal Luis Tagle Video still

Politico Europe noted that if the church selects the first African pope in modern history, it might create a historical milestone. Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson was considered a leading candidate for pope in 2013 and remains a topic of discussion now, but his previous controversial comments about child sexual abuse rates in Africa and warnings about the spread of Islam in Europe might hinder his election.

The report analyzed that indeed, under Francis, more cardinals from historically underrepresented regions were appointed, which might play a significant role in the next papal election.

On the other hand, since Francis abolished the regular meetings of cardinals in Rome, communication among many cardinals has become difficult, which has, to some extent, given power to what are called "curial cardinals" living in "the Eternal City" who can communicate more easily. Some believe this might give Italian cardinals an advantage, as they make up the majority of Rome's clergy. However, since they no longer need to unite around the pope, they might also attack each other.

Church leaders from Asia, Africa, and Latin America told Politico Europe that Francis also took measures to increase the difficulty for clergy to gather in Rome, leading to the formation of new centers of power, particularly in developing economies where the Catholic population is rapidly growing. Strong episcopal conferences have been established in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These influential leaders include Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from Congo and Cardinal Jaime Spengler from Brazil.

These groups can communicate easily and might pose a challenge to those seeking a European successor to Francis. Many European cardinals might also support candidates from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

A church official said, "The Vatican seems powerful, but when leaders from different continents gather for secret meetings, everyone voices their opinions, and Rome is no longer the 'center' of church conspiracies."

Opposition from conservatives

According to Politico Europe, during his 12 years as pope, Francis infuriated the conservative faction of the Catholic Church, which has become increasingly radical, especially in the United States.

The actual leader of the conservatives is 76-year-old Cardinal Raymond Burke, who has repeatedly clashed with Francis over the so-called "woke" agenda, believing the church has become too "feminized." However, he is more seen as the spiritual leader of the conservatives rather than a serious contender for the papacy.

Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő Video still

The report pointed out that Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő seems more likely to be a papal candidate. He was nominated as a potential successor in 2013 and praised by Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán.

Reuters said that Erdő might be seen as a compromise candidate, someone from the conservative camp who has built bridges with Francis' progressive world. He has extensive church connections in Europe and Africa and is considered a pioneer of the New Evangelization Movement, hoping to rekindle Catholic faith in secularized developed countries. However, he is also seen as pragmatic. In 2015, Erdő opposed Francis' call for the church to accept refugees, calling it "human trafficking."

Erdő speaks fluent Italian, German, French, Spanish, and Russian, which Reuters believes might help ease relations between the Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox Church.

In addition, Reuters believed that although cardinals are unlikely to elect the first American pope, if they must, Joseph Tobin, a cardinal, might be a possible candidate. He has service experience in the Vatican and held senior positions in the American church. However, Tobin does not belong to the conservative camp; he is renowned for his open attitude toward the LGBTQ+ community.

No matter who is elected, Politico Europe pointed out that the next pope will inherit a severely divided church, having to deal with ideological tensions such as LGBTQ+ rights and clergy abuse, as well as rapidly changing geopolitical landscapes due to territorial and cultural conflicts. "The stakes of choosing a new pope are unusually high."

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496032969677718051/

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