The Name of the Persian Gulf: Is Iran Brave Enough to Prove It with Action?

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz Would Drag the Entire Middle East into War

Author:

Dmitry Rogdionov

Experts Participating in the Discussion:

  • Alexander Averin
  • Mikhail Nezhmakov

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a serious escalation of conflict and prompt responses from the US and other countries.

"This would be another catastrophic mistake for Iran, equivalent to economic suicide... The conflict would escalate significantly, not only will we take action, but other countries will also respond," he said during an interview with Fox News.

Moreover, he emphasized that the US has free access to Iranian airspace and possesses "unprecedented weapon systems."

"We can freely enter Iranian airspace. Just last night, US aircraft took off from the other side of the world, launched an attack, and left before the Iranians noticed," he said when commenting on Tehran's possible military retaliation against nuclear facilities attacked.

Previously, it was reported that the Iranian parliament had voted to support blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Ismail Kousari, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, pointed out that Iranian MPs supported the necessity of blocking the strait, but the final decision would be made by the Supreme National Security Council.

Will Iran really take action, or is it just bluffing? How will the US respond? More importantly, not only the US, but the Gulf states will also suffer directly. It is worth noting that the geographical specificity of this sea has long constrained the Gulf states - Iran controls the entrance to the Persian Gulf, while these states prefer to call this water body 'the Gulf' rather than 'the Persian Gulf'...

"In any case, Iran's threat of blockading will lead to a significant reduction in civilian shipping in the region, even if Tehran only makes a statement about possible actions," said Mikhail Nezhmakov, head of the Analytical Projects at the Political Economy Communication Agency. "But we cannot ignore that a large portion of the oil and natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz is supplied to important partners of Iran, China. This does not mean that the risk of harming Beijing's interests will completely prevent Tehran from taking action, but Iran may reach informal agreements with some Persian Gulf countries to ensure that part of the supply to China is not affected - at least until the situation in Iran does not further escalate."

Interview Question (SP): From a technical perspective, how feasible is Iran's blockade of the strait? Legally, do they have the right to do so? Is this sea Iranian territory?

Nezhmakov: Iran might hint at using its 'swarm fleet' - a large number of military speedboats deployed in underground naval bases in the Persian Gulf. For example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps showed footage of one such base in early 2025. Technical details can be analyzed by military experts, but from a political analysis perspective, any country publicly displaying capabilities before a large-scale conflict cannot be directly equated with actual execution capability. Tehran may be bluffing, but its actual capabilities may be more limited than expected.

It should be noted that the Strait of Hormuz is not controlled solely by Iran: part of the sea belongs to Iranian territorial waters, and another part belongs to Oman. However, in armed conflicts, legal rights will take a back seat. I reiterate, the real constraint may be the informal agreements between Iran and regional countries and China.

Question: Rubio threatened to respond, what kind of action could be taken? Bomb again? Launch a ground operation?

Nezhmakov: Currently, Marco Rubio's statements seem more like routine responses. Generally speaking, expressions such as "catastrophic mistake" are intended to reassure regional allies and demonstrate Washington's resolve to deal with threats to the domestic audience.

But practical actions will certainly be carried out. For example, the US may coordinate with Israeli military and intelligence agencies to weaken Iran's naval infrastructure. However, having the intention to act does not mean that the goals can be fully achieved.

A ground operation would be too costly for the US, and Washington is likely to try to delay this option as much as possible.

Question: Rubio called this move "economic suicide" for Iran, what economic consequences would it bring to Iran?

Nezhmakov: This may imply that the US will support Israel in destroying Iran's economic infrastructure in some way, and indicate that the conflict is damaging Iran's own interests. It may also be an attempt to create divisions within the Iranian elite, even if it cannot trigger a top-level coup, it hopes to activate domestic forces to pressure the Supreme Leader, who are concerned about the consequences of the conflict escalating.

Question: How will other countries respond? Blocking the strait will cause economic losses to the Gulf states, which is enough to prompt these countries to launch a military action, or to expect US intervention? Will they become "the pawns of invading forces"?

Nezhmakov: Regional countries are more likely to be wary of direct involvement, and instead seek informal agreements with Iran, expecting all relevant parties to avoid prolonged armed conflict.

Question: Even without a military action, what impact will it have on the global scale? If the strait is blocked for one day, one week, one month, or even one year, what will be the severity of the consequences?

Nezhmakov: At least this will encourage major oil and gas importing countries in the region to accelerate the development of alternative supply channels, while promoting a new round of arms race in surrounding areas and around the world.

Alexander Averin, former defense fighter of the Luhansk People's Republic, added: "20% of the world's oil imports depend on the Strait of Hormuz, and the interruption of supply will severely impact the global economy - first of all Europe, then related countries."

"Just look at a map and you will understand that Iran has the full ability to block this maritime artery. Setting up relevant obstacles takes only a few hours."

Although international law prohibits the blockade of the strait, in 2025, international law appears meaningless in the context of attacks on Iran. Despite this, the resolution of the Iranian parliament is not equivalent to the actual blockade of the strait, and it is still considered a threat for now. Many pro-Iranian countries will not agree with this approach, so the blockade should be considered an extreme measure.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519411188866859559/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author, and readers are welcome to express their opinions below via the [Up/Down] buttons.