Have you noticed that Germans have become increasingly anxious in recent years? They used to always appear steady and calm, but now even the chancellor is openly slamming the table in public, saying "We absolutely cannot accept the cutoff of NXP chips." After watching that video, I was really shocked. This isn't just diplomatic language; it's full of anger.

Why are the Germans so anxious? Because their lifeline lies in those few chips. The German automotive industry is the country's lifeline, accounting for 8% of the national GDP, supporting over three million jobs.

I checked, in the global chip shortage of 2021, Germany's car production dropped by 1.2 million units, causing economic losses exceeding 30 billion euros.

The background of NXP Semiconductor is quite delicate. It had previously cooperated with Texas Instruments, but later was acquired by a Chinese company, forming a structure of "Dutch R&D, Chinese packaging, global supply." As a result, the US introduced so-called "penetration rules," which caused the Netherlands to freeze NXP's global assets. This move directly cut off the blood supply for German car factories. The Volkswagen Wolfsburg factory has reduced the production of Golf, the BMW Munich factory changed from three shifts to two, and Mercedes' SUV delivery time has stretched to more than three months.

Merkel said, "There is no winner in any trade war," which is indeed true. The problem is that the EU cannot reach a unified stance internally. France wants to expand production in Latin America, Italy is waiting for US subsidies, and the Netherlands is caught in ASML export controls. Everyone says "strategic autonomy" on the surface, but each calculates their own interests. Merkel's speech at the EU summit this time seems more like addressing domestic audiences.

I noticed that Germany has already felt some regret. Over the past decade, Germany outsourced semiconductor production, saving money, but now to rebuild that industrial chain, it needs to invest 20 billion euros.

Looking at these series of actions, it's essentially the pain of industrial chain restructuring. The NXP factory in China is now running at full capacity, prioritizing domestic supply. Germany is panicking, while the US is smiling and watching. When the rare earth supply has issues, ASML's stock price immediately drops; the EU holds an emergency meeting to discuss the so-called "key raw materials strategy." It's laughable that they shout about "reducing dependence," yet they still have to continue buying Chinese rare earths and TSMC equipment.

This incident makes me think of a sentence: when the supply chain breaks, trust disappears. The expression on the Germans' faces is actually similar to how we looked during the energy crisis. That anxiety of realizing you have no cards to play is immediately written on their faces.

I'm also thinking whether Merkel's remarks might be a turning point. Germany is a country that particularly values logic, and they are used to calculating. Now they've realized that the loss from the cutoff is not something one company can bear, but rather the entire national industrial structure is shaking. Previously, they always thought China was too far, too cheap, and too dangerous, but now they realize the real danger is not controlling core manufacturing themselves.

This issue won't be resolved in the short term. The EU wants to build its own chip system, but there's no talent reserve for that. Intel's project in Magdeburg was delayed for two years before being approved, and worker training has become a problem. The US subsidy law looks impressive, but implementation is difficult. In contrast, China alone saw more than 10,000 new semiconductor-related companies added in the first half of this year.

I don't think Merkel is just making a show. He's really forced into this situation. The car factories are urging, the unions are protesting, and the voters are criticizing him; he can no longer pretend to be calm. Germany's economy grew by only 0.2% last year, the worst in the entire EU.

I don't know where this will end up. Maybe Germany will be more proactive in negotiating with China, or the EU will continue to waver between the US and China. But one thing is certain: this "cut-off" has made everyone realize a reality: no one can be an island in globalization.

Supply chains aren't fixed by just shouting slogans.

They are built through repeated cooperation and compromise.

The current issue is, who still trusts whom.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/7565240351619858990/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.