American shale industry executives anonymously criticized Trump: "The US shale oil business has collapsed."

"The noise and chaos are deafening! Who wants to make business decisions in such an unstable environment?"

This is the anonymous criticism from a senior executive of a US shale oil exploration and production company during a survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. Faced with the energy and trade policies of the Trump administration, the US shale industry is experiencing unprecedented anxiety.

The survey showed that US shale oil company executives generally believe that after Trump returned to the White House, he simultaneously claimed a "national energy emergency," promising to "drill"全力以赴 to lower consumers' energy costs, while at the same time using tariffs, low-price strategies, and arbitrary and changeable policies, directly "crushing" this industry that was once seen as the pillar of "energy independence."

One executive said bluntly that the Trump administration "knows almost nothing about shale oil economics," and its actions "are equivalent to standing with OPEC, manipulating supply to lower oil prices below the economic threshold, and completely crushing American producers."

"The US shale oil business has already collapsed," said one respondent. "This once the most dynamic energy engine in the world has been destroyed by political hostility and economic ignorance."

Some experts analyzed for Bloomberg News that as OPEC increases production, and Trump encourages the US to significantly increase production to "solidify energy dominance," the global oil market will face oversupply, resulting in falling oil prices.

The Financial Times reported on September 25 that since the beginning of this year, the US benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen 18%.

Industry executives who participated in the survey said that if oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, their businesses would suffer losses. They expect WTI prices to remain around $63 per barrel by the end of the year, and reach $67 per barrel by 2027. However, the executives pointed out that the short-term global market surplus is restricting prices and hitting profitability and dividends, and they are also concerned about Trump's goal of lowering oil prices.

"The Trump administration is pushing oil prices down to $40 per barrel," said one executive. At that price, "drilling activities will disappear."

At the same time, Trump's trade policies have made the industry "worse." Since June, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, which directly increased costs.

A boss of a petroleum and natural gas services company complained that his industry is suffering from "cost increases caused by tariffs." Another respondent wrote that his sub-industry is "bleeding" because of this.

The Dallas Federal Reserve's quarterly survey tracks drilling activity in the Southwest United States. The survey showed that drilling activity in the Southwest shale region fell 6.5% in the third quarter, although it slowed compared to the previous quarter's 8.1% decline, the overall outlook has deteriorated sharply. Among the 139 companies surveyed, the proportion holding negative expectations almost tripled, dropping 17.6%.

Although Trump publicly claims to support fossil fuels, the industry executives said they are worried that Trump's attacks on renewable energy may eventually backfire on the shale industry.

After taking office, Trump's second administration drastically cut tax incentives for clean energy provided by the previous Biden administration, and halted large projects such as the Norwegian National Oil Company's Empire Wind 1 wind project and Ørsted's "Revolution Wind" project.

A shale industry executive said they are worried that future governments may strengthen penalties for methane emissions, tighten permits, and environmental reviews.

They lamented, "The attacks currently being directed at renewable energy are likely to come back to haunt us eventually."

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844282697916762/

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