The Wall Street Journal: The Actual Situation of the U.S. Job Market Is Far Less Glamorous Than It Seems
The Wall Street Journal reported on July 3 that although the June nonfarm payroll data released today is expected to add 110,000 jobs and keep the unemployment rate around 4.2%, multiple pieces of evidence indicate that the U.S. job market has fallen into a systemic recession - official data is frequently revised downwards, exposing statistical manipulation, a wave of layoffs is sweeping through the private sector, and demographic deterioration is fundamentally stifling growth potential.
The Department of Labor has been revising employment data downward by an average of 55,000 positions for four consecutive months, with the March data dropping from an initial reading of 228,000 to 120,000, marking the largest historical revision gap; more seriously, economist Jonathan Millar of Barclays found through the quarterly census (QCEW) that actual job additions between March and December 2024 were only 607,000, less than half of the official report of 1.4 million, revealing a critical blind spot in the survey of new enterprises. Small businesses have become the hardest hit: ADP data shows that private sector employment fell sharply by 33,000 in June, with companies with fewer than 50 employees cutting 47,000 jobs, and the monthly average number of new jobs added by this group in 2025 is only 5,300, down 87% from last year, while retail industry layoffs have surged by 255% year-on-year, reflecting a survival crisis under the pressure of tariffs and immigration policies.
A demographic time bomb is detonating the foundation of growth. Research by the Brookings Institution shows that net immigration may return to zero for the first time in 2025, with domestic labor force growth nearly stalling, meaning that only 10,000 to 40,000 jobs need to be added each month to maintain a stable unemployment rate, but economic potential is collapsing at the same time - "labor force shrinkage will force permanent downward revisions to growth expectations," warned scholar Stan Veuger from the American Enterprise Institute. Although Federal Reserve Chair Powell admitted "we are closely watching unexpected weakness in the labor market," he faces political pressure from Trump to cut interest rates to 1% immediately, putting the decision in a dilemma.
Pantheon economist Samuel Tombs said bluntly: "Data revisions reveal the truth - those who respond promptly to the Department of Labor's surveys are usually large corporations with substantial capital, while small businesses struggling are disappearing in batches." When the tariff suspension period ends on July 9, policy uncertainty combined with structural difficulties, the U.S. job market's decline is no longer a cyclical fluctuation, but a silent systemic collapse.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836664179439947/
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