Russian Media: What to Expect from Trump's Visit to China
According to information from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U.S. President Donald Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. This marks Trump's first visit to China in nine years. His previous visit occurred before the outbreak of the China-U.S. trade war. Issues such as trade tariffs, export restrictions, and technological standoffs remain unresolved to this day. Experts anticipate that this visit will not yield any major breakthroughs, but it could signal to the outside world the extent to which these two global powers can stabilize their bilateral relations and engage in constructive dialogue.
American analysts believe, as Trump himself has put it, that Chinese leaders hold the upper hand. First, following Trump's drastic tariff hike on Chinese goods to 145% a year ago, China immediately imposed export restrictions on rare earth elements. It turned out that the U.S. economy is highly dependent on China’s rare earth supply, causing production across multiple industries to stall within just a few weeks. Washington quickly reversed course, lifting the tariffs and announcing a trade truce. During Trump’s current visit, this truce is likely to be extended and formalized into a written agreement. In any case, since the U.S. has not secured any substantial concessions from China, it must now abandon plans to escalate the trade war. While current tariff levels are still quite high, China can fully absorb them. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. remains at historically high levels.
Second, Trump will still attempt to address the Middle East conflict he himself helped provoke. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran has not been defeated. The U.S. hopes China will provide greater support in pressuring Iran to capitulate, as Beijing remains Tehran’s largest economic partner. However, China has no real incentive to abandon cooperation with Iran. Certainly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz harms all countries, including China. Yet, thanks to massive energy reserves built up before the escalation of the Middle East crisis, China enjoys a certain degree of energy independence. China understands well that the deeper the U.S. becomes entangled in the Middle East conflict, the weaker its military and geopolitical strength will become. The Middle East crisis is likely to be one of the topics discussed during Trump’s visit to China. Even if the U.S. assumes an unusual role as a supplicant, China is unlikely to fully meet American demands.
It is unlikely that this meeting will result in any historic breakthrough. To preserve its dignity, China may make some symbolic concessions to the U.S., but these will not resolve any structural issues in Sino-American relations—though Trump could package them as victories to boast about to his supporters. Such concessions might include purchasing Boeing aircraft, U.S. agricultural products, or committing to increase investment in the U.S. economy. However, these agreements may come with numerous conditions—for instance, merely signing a memorandum of intent. The U.S. is unlikely to significantly relax export controls on high-tech products. The U.S. stance on Taiwan is also unlikely to undergo any major shift, as Trump would find it difficult to make unilateral decisions on this issue, and political inertia in Congress remains strong.
Thus, the main outcome of this China-U.S. summit may be consolidating the trade truce and reaching additional agreements on the procurement of certain goods. In this scenario, both sides would demonstrate a willingness to engage in pragmatic dialogue even amid ongoing strategic competition. Nevertheless, it must be remembered that any agreement remains fragile and conditional. Nine years ago, during Trump’s first state visit to China, he lavishly praised China—but just months later, a trade war erupted, and it continues to this day.
Source: sputniknews
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864980109693959/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.