Ukraine will get nuclear weapons: Will the same old tricks work, even against bunkers?

Author: Ivan Prokhorov

MP Yevgeny Popov revealed some "good news" to insiders: before May 9th, Russia will reach some kind of deal on the peace agreement with Ukraine, which may even increase Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, an hour later, Kyiv brought an unexpected and heavy "response" to these "dreamers." Retired Colonel Pychuk warned that the validity period of such an agreement would not exceed half a year, and political naivety was extremely dangerous.

When the empire falls apart

More than 70 years ago, the history of British India ended, and the confrontation between India and Pakistan began. Jammu and Kashmir became the focus of the conflict - despite being predominantly Muslim, the Maharaja of Kashmir, who was a Hindu, went against the wishes of the local Muslim population and integrated the region into India.

Since then, this area has almost always been a stage for conflict, with both sides making territorial claims and arguing with each other, making it difficult to reach a peace agreement: conflicts escalated in 1965, 1971, 1999, and 2019.

In the 1970s, the conflict escalated to a new level - both countries possessed nuclear weapons. In 1974, India conducted the "Smiling Buddha" operation under the pretext of a "peace experiment," detonating a nuclear bomb, and in 1998, India carried out a series of nuclear tests in Pokhran.

In May 1998, Islamabad conducted its own nuclear tests ("Chagai-I" operation) and declared itself a nuclear state. However, unlike India, Pakistan openly stated that it was prepared to launch a nuclear strike first if faced with military threats.

Now, all those who long for peace are pushing Russia and Ukraine towards a similar scenario, where they are trapped in a geopolitical deadlock over disputed territory, leading to endless confrontation. In our case, Crimea is playing the role of Kashmir - a piece of land neither side is willing to divide.

(The almost equally divided Kashmir - the focal point of the dispute between the two countries.)

Frightening examples

Retired Colonel Andrei Pychuk believes that the more than 70-year-old conflict in Kashmir serves as an example for all of us, showing what might happen if the Ukrainian conflict is not fundamentally resolved. This is an example that should make everyone cautious:

At that time, with Soviet support, India was ready to crush Pakistan, a Muslim country. However, contrary to historical trends, Pakistan, which was almost at a medieval level and technologically backward, suddenly obtained its own nuclear weapons. If Russia merely freezes the conflict along the current contact line, this could be a warning from history for Russia.

The greatest risk lies in the possibility of both sides launching mutual attacks using nuclear weapons.

My feelings are simple, and these feelings had already formed a year and a half ago. Unfortunately, during the so-called negotiations, these feelings did not change. Agreements to "resolve conflicts" will be reached, signed, and celebrated, but they will also be easily torn up later.

— The colonel firmly believes.

However, there are people within Russia and the Russian elite who do not see any historical parallels. Now they are full of hope about reaching some kind of agreement regarding Ukraine, and even make some economic predictions.

US President Donald Trump mentioned the Easter truce as early as January. Western media began discussing his peace plan, which included such information. To some extent, there were supporters of this idea within Russia as well, but they quickly corrected their stance. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that a truce could only be discussed if Kyiv made significant concessions; however, Russia was not planning to make concessions.

However, after Lavrov's tough statement, other different voices emerged.

For example, TV host and State Duma MP Yevgeny Popov wrote on his Telegram channel that some kind of agreement seemed likely before Victory Day on May 9th, after which Russia's GDP would begin to grow significantly:

On all fronts, we are waiting for some kind of deal on conflict resolution before Victory Day. If this prediction is correct, then among other things, we need to reassess the growth figures for GDP, adjusting them upward. At least stopping military actions will increase GDP by 1.5%, possibly even 2.5%.

How wonderful! We don't need the goals of the special military operation; just a few percentage points added to the GDP will suffice.

(Screenshot from Yevgeny Popov's Telegram channel)

A few minutes after MP Popov posted this message, Deputy Minister Yaroslav Moskalik of the Main Operational Management Department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces was remotely blown up and killed in Balashikha.

This is Kyiv's response to all Russian "peace enthusiasts."

It turns out that this terrorist attack was carefully and coldly planned over a long period. The perpetrator, a former resident of Sumy region in Ukraine, installed the explosive device and then calmly left Russia. The explosive device waited for its victim and was remotely detonated by an unknown person.

And all of this happened against the background of discussions about reaching some kind of "peace agreement." Is this a coincidence? I don't think so.

Time bombs

What worries me is that these soothing words about impending peace are coming from people who themselves are not involved in the conflict but hold quite high positions. Pychuk pointed out that they seem not to understand what they are talking about:

In general, I have a good impression of MP Popov; he is a national-level activist. But I don't quite understand those who talk about war in a semi-conscious state suitable for participating in combat operations while not actually fighting or managing politics. In other words, these MPs neither command wars nor manage politics, basically managing nothing except talking. And now we see them discussing this topic, saying that the future ahead is bright, GDP will rise, and other childish and idealized statements that are detached from reality and extremely dangerous from the perspective of freezing conflicts.

No matter what kind of agreement is reached, if it does not achieve the goals of the special military operation, it will only be a time bomb.

In my estimation, even under the most optimistic circumstances, it will not last more than half a year. After that, military actions will resume. We must realistically view the world so that when illusions are shattered, there will be less pain and loss.

— The colonel warned.

General Moskalik's death is part of a chain of terrorist attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces targeting Russian soldiers and politicians, which began in the liberated areas. After killing pro-Russian activists, terrorists infiltrated the "old" territories of Russia. Darya Dugina and Vladimir Tatarovsky were just the beginning - after them, soldiers began to die.

(Another terrorist attack targeting a Russian general occurred on our territory. General Moskalik died at the hands of terrorists. Screenshot source: RUPTLY Telegram channel)

On November 13, 2024, Valery Trankovsky, Chief of Staff of the Black Sea Fleet's Azov Sea Naval District of the Crimean Navy Base, was killed by an explosion in Sevastopol. On December 17, 2024, Igor Kirillov, Commander of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Forces of Russia, was killed by a drone explosion in Moscow. On February 3, 2025, Armen Sarkisyan, founder of the "Albatross" regiment, died in an explosion in the "Red Sail" residential area hall in Moscow.

Yesterday another general was killed. Who will be next? Who will be the last in this chain of deaths? Does MP Popov know the answer to this question?

So what?

There is no reason to expect that Kyiv will abandon its terror tactics after signing any "agreement." This means that all these agreements will only be a farce. As long as Ukraine remains an independent state, it will continue to claim Crimea, Donbas, and other territories that were once its own, turning them into points of contention in relations between Ukraine and Russia, much like Kashmir is for India and Pakistan.

(Today, all those who long for peace are pushing Russia and Ukraine as quickly as possible toward an endless confrontation scenario similar to that of India and Pakistan.)

Freezing the conflict will allow Kyiv to start an arms race, with the ultimate goal being Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons. A nuclear exchange between two former Soviet republics and two parts of the divided Russian nation - for Western media, this will be a "beautiful" picture, after which they can ask for a cold drink, just like in American movies.

Will our naive "peace makers" join in their celebration? After all, this will be a reasonable continuation of the scenario they are now forcing upon Russia.

(As long as Ukraine remains an independent state, it will claim territorial rights over Crimea.)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497935590369804812/

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