Russia and Iran oppose any Caspian pipeline construction: Turkic-speaking country Turkmenistan exports natural gas to Persian-speaking country Azerbaijan through Persian-speaking country Iran.

Amid Israel's attack on Iran, Azerbaijan is caught between allies and neighbors, walking a tightrope in diplomacy, needing to balance security partnerships, ethnic relations, and regional interests to avoid the spread and backlash of conflict.

During the 12-day war, Israel's attacks on Iran, including targets near Tabriz, the center of Iranian Azerbaijan, followed by the United States also attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, placed the Republic of Azerbaijan in an embarrassing strategic dilemma.

As the conflict in the region intensifies, Baku is forced to make a delicate balance between its allies Israel, protectorate Turkey, superpower the United States, and neighboring Iran.

Azerbaijan maintains neutrality in the Israeli-Iranian war

Throughout the conflict, Azerbaijan's official stance has been to ease tensions, reflecting both its diplomatic pragmatism and deeper geopolitical considerations. Given their shared border, close economic ties, and the risk of the conflict spilling over into its territory (which could trigger an influx of refugees), open conflict with Iran would be of little benefit to Baku.

Azerbaijan and Iran are conducting natural gas swap transactions: Iran assists Turkmenistan in exporting natural gas to Azerbaijan, which is then exported to Europe. Azerbaijan is an important hub for the "International North-South Transport Corridor," a multimodal trade route connecting Russia, Europe, India, and Iran through the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. The war and instability in Iran will severely endanger this route and weaken Azerbaijan's transit potential.

The risk of terrorist activities targeting Israeli and American interests on Azerbaijani territory is also increasing. In the past, Baku and Jerusalem have accused Tehran of orchestrating plots against Israeli and Jewish targets within Baku. These accusations have not been convincingly substantiated. However, if the conflict continues, the possibility of an increase in asymmetric warfare, including terrorism, cannot be ruled out.

The public opinion in Azerbaijan should not be ignored. Although the elite in Baku sympathizes with Israel and distrusts Iran, in Shi'a strongholds such as villages around the capital (e.g., Nardaran) or southern towns (e.g., Lankaran and Masallı), the population may be more inclined towards their co-religionists in Iran.

Many historical, cultural, religious, and family ties tightly connect the Azerbaijani people (especially those in the south) with the Iranian people. If the ceasefire agreement facilitated by US President Donald Trump fails to hold and the war breaks out again, anti-Israel sentiment may further intensify, causing future trouble for Baku officials, especially if Iranian civilian targets are attacked again.

These concerns should be balanced with Baku's close alliance with Jerusalem. This strategic partnership focuses on arms sales (for example, Israeli drones were used by Baku in the Karabakh war against Armenia from 2020-2023), oil trade (Israel's demand for about 40% is supplied by Azerbaijan), and intelligence sharing against Iran.

Source: The National Interest

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836826523217932/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself