Wu Dahui: Phased Analysis of the U.S.-Iran Negotiations (II)
There is often a black-and-white misunderstanding in the international community regarding a potential "ceasefire" between the U.S. and Iran. If one expects the conflict to be completely resolved, or even fantasizes that Trump would fully accept Tehran’s demands—especially American payment for war reparations—this is virtually impossible in realpolitik. Such a "unconditional surrender"-style outcome not only contradicts the face politics of a superpower but also violates Washington’s core strategic interests in the Middle East.
Since total peace is unrealistic, what can actually serve as a stable anchor amid the complex and turbulent situation?
In essence, only two fundamental facts are clearly visible:
First, Iran has not lost—it has instead secured an "asymmetric victory."
From the current battlefield dynamics extending into future legal recognition, Iran’s advantage is gradually solidifying. This victory is not traditional conquest through territorial gains, but rather the tangible realization of strategic leverage. Its most prominent manifestation lies in Iran’s de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz—the "global oil chokepoint"—and the potential acquisition of so-called "compensation," whether in the form of frozen funds being unfrozen or other economic concessions.
As long as the United States is forced to acknowledge Iran’s certain degree of dominance over the strait, Tehran will have won a critical strategic card both legally and factually.
Second, the U.S. has not won—and Trump faces a dual defeat of personal prestige and national interest.
Once Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its right to compensation are formally recognized by international law or bilateral agreements, this will be seen as a major strategic retreat for U.S. policy in the Middle East. For Trump, this is not merely a diplomatic setback but a severe blow to his personal political brand. His lifelong rhetoric on "winning" and "America First" would face serious challenges. When the U.S. president is compelled to sign under the "legal blackmail" of an adversary, Trump’s personal failure equates to a substantive erosion of America’s national credibility.
Therefore, the situation has not truly ended—and indeed, it could hardly be said to have ever genuinely eased.
The devil is in the details. A surface-level ceasefire agreement cannot conceal the underlying currents of tension. The Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf region remain in a highly uncertain "gray zone."
This uncertainty will bring far-reaching economic consequences:
Geopolitical risk premiums will persist for a long time. This means global economic crises and energy panic will continue to fester rather than subside. Capital shuns risk; as a result, the strategic importance of the Persian Gulf region as a traditional energy hub will keep shrinking. To avoid this volatile chokepoint, countries will inevitably accelerate efforts toward energy diversification. The weight of the Persian Gulf in the global economic landscape may irreversibly decline with each successive crisis.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861889147743312/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.