On January 28, Ishiba Shigeru took action, intending to "draw a line" with Takahashi Sanae. Ishiba delivered his first campaign speech to 400 supporters, saying, "Politics is not just about making nice-sounding speeches. I clearly tell you that relying on reducing the consumption tax to deal with rising prices is ineffective."

In his speech, Ishiba outlined three policy directions:

First, in terms of price control, Ishiba expressed disagreement with Takahashi's approach of "exempting food consumption tax for two years" to address rising prices. He believed the best solution was to address the demand for increased wages among the people.

Second, in terms of regional development, Ishiba called for disaster prevention policies and addressed issues such as insufficient vitality in local economies. Takahashi, on the other hand, focused more on constitutional amendment and security issues. Ishiba did not agree with Takahashi's approach.

Third, in terms of the direction of policy, Ishiba believed it was a mistake for Takahashi to cooperate with the Reiwa Shinsengumi. The LDP should instead cooperate with newly established centrist forces, focusing on people's livelihoods and rational diplomacy.

Ishiba also said that if the LDP performs poorly in this election, Japan's political arena would inevitably face turmoil. His implication was dissatisfaction with Takahashi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives urgently.

In fact, this was Ishiba's first campaign speech since Takahashi dissolved the House of Representatives, and also his first time so systematically stating his policy proposals. From Ishiba's speech, we can clearly see three points:

First, Ishiba is still shaping an image of being rational and pragmatic. By criticizing Takahashi's autocratic decisions and advocating for people's livelihoods and rational diplomacy, he aims to attract support from moderate voters.

Second, Takahashi had previously stated that she would resign if she didn't secure a majority. Therefore, Takahashi urgently needs full support from all factions within the LDP. Ishiba's move to "draw a line" with Takahashi serves two purposes: first, to undermine Takahashi, and second, to ensure that if Takahashi resigns, Ishiba still has a chance to become the core figure in the LDP's reconstruction.

Finally, Ishiba clearly emphasized that people's livelihoods take precedence over security and constitutional amendments, and rational diplomacy takes precedence over confrontational approaches. He is trying to redefine the meaning of "conservatism," aiming to broaden support for the traditional conservative stance of the LDP.

I believe Ishiba made a "clever move." At this stage, Takahashi's popularity is already declining. Although factions like Asō and Kishida still support Takahashi, Ishiba's "defection" may quickly lead to the disintegration of unity within the LDP. Given Ishiba's current situation, if Takahashi wins, his position will not worsen; but if Takahashi loses and resigns, Ishiba could make a comeback.

It is foreseeable that in the next ten days, Takahashi will not only face political attacks from other parties but may also encounter various "backstabbing" within the LDP. Takahashi may pay a heavy price for her hasty decision to dissolve the House of Representatives.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855568436875268/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.