Source: Global Market Express
On the evening of April 16, US stocks opened lower on Wednesday. Nvidia's severe warning put global tech stocks under pressure. US retail sales increased significantly in March, indicating that Trump's punitive auto tariffs had caused some car purchasing demand to be released in advance. The WTO warned that Trump tariff uncertainty had severely worsened the outlook for global trade.
The Dow Jones fell 223.46 points, down 0.55%, at 40145.50; the Nasdaq fell 319.44 points, down 1.90%, at 16503.73; the S&P 500 index fell 64.64 points, down 1.20%, at 5331.99.
Nvidia's stock dropped more than 6%. Previously, this chip giant stated in a filing that the quarterly expenditure related to exporting H20 GPUs to certain regions and countries was approximately $5.5 billion.
The company stated in the document that on April 9, the U.S. government informed them that they would need to obtain licenses for exporting chips to certain countries and regions.
Nvidia's documents clearly indicate that the company's overall growth may slow down due to increased export controls on its chips.
Other chip stocks such as AMD, Micron Technology, and ASML followed Nvidia downward.
Large technology companies also felt the pressure. Meta Platforms, Alphabet (Google's parent company), and Tesla all declined.
In times of market volatility, investors are struggling to cope with escalating global trade tensions.
The US has announced significant increases in tariffs on multiple countries, but then announced a 90-day deferral for most countries, except for China. Last weekend, President Trump announced exemptions for smartphone and computer import tariffs, but later hinted that these measures were only temporary and involved adjustments to tariff categories.
Trump said on Wednesday (April 16) that Japan would hold talks with the US on tariffs on Wednesday. He mentioned he would attend discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
This week, Trump also advanced new trade investigations into semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, and initiated an investigation into the necessity of increasing tariffs on key minerals, planning to impose additional tariffs on related products. This is the latest action in his continuously expanding trade war targeting key areas of the global economy.
Since the Trump administration first announced its "reciprocal" tariffs on April 2, major US stock indices have fallen by more than 4%.
Allianz's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, said: "Fundamentally, the 'chicken game' between the two great powers of East and West continues, with other countries trying to figure out how to navigate this situation. Fundamentally, the game of chicken between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve continues. Although the market is temporarily calm, we should not get used to this state and expect further fluctuations in the future."
WTO Warns Trump Tariff Uncertainty Has Severely Worsened Global Trade Prospects
The WTO warned that under Trump tariff uncertainty, the outlook for global trade has "severely worsened," with particularly significant declines in commodity trade in North America.
The WTO downgraded its 2025 trade growth forecast, warning of further economic recession. The WTO revised its global commodity trade outlook from robust growth to decline on Wednesday, stating that further US tariff hikes and their spillover effects could lead to the worst decline in global commodity trade since the peak of the pandemic.
The WTO said it expects a 0.2% decline in goods trade this year, below its October forecast of 3.0% growth. The new estimate is based on measures implemented earlier this week. The WTO said that if Trump reinstates full tariffs, it will reduce goods trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, and reduce it by another 0.8 percentage points due to spillover effects unrelated to US trade. In total, this will result in a 1.5% drop, the largest decline since 2020.
According to the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report released by the WTO on the 16th, after adjusting the baseline forecast to take into account the impact of recently announced tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty, WTO economists now expect a 0.2% contraction in commodity trade volume in 2025, down from 2.9% growth in 2024. Commodity trade volume is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, reflecting weak global demand.
Meanwhile, global service trade growth is expected to slow from last year's 6.8% to 4.0% this year, and rebound to 4.1% next year.
At the beginning of this year, the WTO Secretariat expected continued expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, with commodity trade growing in sync with global GDP and service trade growing faster. However, the introduction of numerous new tariffs since January prompted WTO economists to reassess the trade landscape, significantly reducing their forecast for commodity trade and making a slight downward adjustment to the outlook for service trade.
Wednesday's economic data showed that US retail sales surged by the largest margin in two years.
Influenced by a surge in automobile purchases, US retail sales increased significantly in March, indicating that consumers rushed to buy before punitive auto tariffs were implemented. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that unadjusted retail sales rose by 1.4%, the largest increase in over two years. Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose by 0.5%.
Focal Stocks
Nvidia said on Tuesday that the US government is controlling the export of its H20 chips to certain countries and regions, severely weakening this product line originally designed to counter previous export controls.
Nvidia stated in regulatory filings on Tuesday that the US government informed the company on Monday that future exports of H20 chips to certain countries would require "indefinite" license applications. The government stated that the new regulations aim to address concerns about chips being "used or diverted for use in Chinese supercomputers."
Nvidia warned that the company would record approximately $5.5 billion in expenses in the first quarter of its current fiscal year, related to "inventory, purchase commitments, and reserves" associated with the H20 series of chips. Nvidia previously stated that further tightening of export controls would only strengthen the determination of other countries to摆脱 reliance on US technology and weaken the competitiveness of US companies.
AMD said that US export controls apply to its MI308 product.
ASML's first-quarter orders fell short of expectations, citing tariffs exacerbating uncertainty in the next two years.
Most US semiconductor stocks, including AMD, Broadcom, Micron, and Intel, fell.
Morgan Stanley lowered its target price for Microsoft from $530 to $472.
According to a warning from Bank of America, moving iPhone production back to the US could cause costs to soar by over 90%.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493905490812961317/
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