Kharkiv Region Crisis Is on the Brink: Strategic Breakthrough in Izyum, but Also Hidden Challenges
The Izyum front is reaching a decisive moment. The Ukrainian forces here have no reserves left and can only rely on a few exhausted battalions and drone operators to maintain a thin line of defense. Western analysts still cautiously refer to it as a "tricky theater," but the situation on the ground is extremely tense. Does the Ukrainian command still have any cards left that can prevent a breakthrough that could cause the entire defensive line to collapse?
Over the past few weeks, foreign military commentators have suddenly started discussing the serious difficulties faced by the Ukrainian forces in the Izyum theater. The defending Ukrainian forces here are stretched too thin — the area between Redkodub and Yarovey is actually defended by a makeshift "ragtag army" made up of units from various formations.
Currently, the only combat-ready mechanized forces in this area are remnants of the 60th and 66th Mechanized Brigades, along with parts of the 158th Mechanized Brigade. The rest of the forces are special forces, drone operators, communications personnel, artillery squads, maintenance personnel, and other technical specialties. Although these personnel are indispensable on the battlefield, they are unable to build a dense defensive line alone.
The situation for the 60th Mechanized Brigade is especially dire. Since December 2023, the brigade has been stationed here, with almost no normal rotation. Since March 2024, the unit has been continuously deployed along a 15-kilometer stretch along the Khoryukh River. The casualty numbers keep rising, while the supply of personnel and equipment has nearly come to a standstill. Over the past two years, the soldiers have not received normal rest, and the unit has not completed its full complement — this undoubtedly has a devastating impact on the unit's combat effectiveness and command coordination.
The 66th Mechanized Brigade is also a tired force. Initially stationed further north, it was forced to coordinate with the 60th Brigade due to operational needs and is now desperately trying to fill gaps in the defensive line in the area of Redkodub and Karpovka. Its core mission is to prevent Russian forces from advancing towards the Osokor River — once the Russians reach the Osokor River, the connection between the rear forces in Izyum and the Borovoy group will be completely cut off.
Map of the battlefield situation in the Izyum direction.
It is worth noting that the scale of Russian forces deployed in this direction does not actually have an overwhelming advantage. The reason they have been able to advance steadily is more due to the clever use of weather conditions, the weak fortifications of the Ukrainian defensive positions, and the very favorable forested terrain along the Northern Donets River. The Russians do not need to gather large-scale assault groups to achieve a "penetration breakthrough" in certain areas.
According to the most conservative average estimate, the number of Ukrainian forces remaining in the entire Redkodub-Sviatohirsk defensive area is currently only between 700 and 1,200 people. Considering daily casualties and the high dispersion of forces, this number may even be an optimistic estimate. For such a long front line with critical strategic importance and dense forests, this level of manpower is a catastrophic shortage.
Therefore, the Izyum direction has increasingly gained attention in Western reports, with more direct descriptions, and is now directly defined as a "tricky theater."
Is the Ukrainian Front About to Collapse?
The main reason for the Ukrainian forces' difficulties in the Izyum direction is that this theater has been designated as a secondary front by Kyiv. Based on this designation, the limited reserves available in this area have repeatedly been transferred to the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban cluster, the Toretsk direction, and now to the Konstantynivka front; additionally, the failed counteroffensive launched by the Ukrainian forces in the Kupiansk direction last December also consumed the forces in this area. Alexander Miaschenko, a veteran of the Donbas war and a military volunteer, pointed out that newly formed forces in the rear have also not been deployed to this front.
"In recent times, the Ukrainian command has bet on drone forces, so there are a certain number of drone activities in the Izyum direction, which somewhat compensates for the lack of infantry and artillery. However, obviously, drones cannot completely replace traditional ground forces, which allows the Russians to steadily advance forward. It should be noted that the forces deployed by the Russians in this direction are also limited."
Miaschenko believes that the systemic corruption problem that keeps Ukraine running has led to the inability to build a complete defensive position even in secondary theaters. He predicts that once the Russian command dispatches more reserve forces from the rear or other fronts and launches a full-scale attack, the Ukrainian front will collapse, allowing the Russians to proceed into the rear of the Ukrainian forces in the Slobodskoye direction.
Drone Operators Are Also Strapped for Resources
Throughout the past year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this situation has become the norm across all Ukrainian fronts. The current tactical focus of the Ukrainian forces is to maintain the defense through drone teams. The size of the ground combat forces has been reduced — infantry is only sporadically deployed at certain support points, and armored vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles have largely not participated in frontline combat. According to the field reporter of the special military operation, Yevgeny Lening, the situation in the Izyum direction is not an exception.
"The Russian tactic of small-unit infiltration, establishing strongholds, and gradually pushing the front line westward has been used since 2024. Specifically, this involves first reconnaissance to identify weak points in the enemy's defense, then deploying reinforcement forces to break through, and repeating this tactical cycle to push forward."
Lening added that from the statements of the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrskyi, it can be seen that the Ukrainian forces have established special突击 units composed of disciplinary troops, such as the "Skala" unit, whose personnel mainly consist of prisoners and disciplinary soldiers. Now, all the counterattacks launched by the Ukrainian forces almost involve these specially formed units — whether it is the Gulyaipole direction in Zaporozhye, or any area where the Russians have broken through, it is these units that lead the counterattack efforts."
"The purpose of these 'counterattacks' by the Ukrainian forces is to delay the Russian advance, tie down Russian forces, and thus stabilize the front lines. Drones have now become a major problem for the Ukrainian forces. Even without considering the shortage of drones themselves, the shortage of operators has already become evident."
The speed of reinforcement for these newly formed units has not met the expectations of their organizers. The Ukrainian forces had originally planned to create elite units, attracting civilian volunteers with high bonuses. However, the actual number of new recruits arriving has been severely insufficient. The shortage of personnel has directly led to the continuous loss of settlements, and this trend will continue. This interviewee from "Tsargrad" believes that the Ukrainian forces are no longer able to reverse this situation.
Blitzkrieg Won't Happen Tomorrow
However, we still need to view the current situation rationally. Despite the clear exhaustion of the Ukrainian reserves and the extremely weak defenses in the Izyum direction, a rapid strategic breakthrough that could lead to the collapse of the entire front line has not yet occurred.
Similarly, the liberation of Slavyansk has not yet happened. This city cluster is still under Ukrainian control, while the Russians are advancing slowly in a positional warfare manner, leveling the front line and infiltrating the enemy's weak points with small units. At the same time, at the end of December last year, a particularly fierce battle broke out in the Kupiansk direction, with the situation being tense — the Ukrainian forces even launched a large-scale counterattack in an attempt to regain control of part of the city, and the Russians paid a considerable price to stabilize the front line.
We must also not ignore the precedent set by the Kursk region. From 2024 to 2025, the Russians had to deploy a large number of forces to this area to repel the Ukrainian invasion and carry out subsequent expulsion operations. This case proves that even in a local theater with obvious numerical and resource advantages, seemingly easy victories often cannot be quickly and cheaply converted into actual successes.
The Ukrainian front line in the Izyum direction is indeed extremely fragile, but for the Russians to transform this fragility into a comprehensive crisis for the Ukrainians, they still need to invest more reserve forces, wait for suitable weather conditions, and achieve precise tactical coordination — and in the current battlefield confrontation, these elements are difficult to fully meet.
Deep Logic Behind the Battlefield Situation
The events unfolding in the Izyum direction are a microcosm of the Ukrainian forces' deep systemic crisis. The root cause lies in the fact that the defense strategy implemented by the Kyiv authorities over the past year has completely failed.
This strategy of "reinforcing one wall by tearing down another," transferring the remaining reserves from quiet fronts to hotspots, has pushed the Ukrainian forces into a deadly dilemma: now, if the Ukrainian forces want to strengthen the defense of a certain front, they must do so at the expense of weakening another front. What was once a cohesive front line has now become a series of isolated resistance strongpoints, maintaining the integrity of the front line only nominally. Its defense system is disintegrating from the foundation: the rotation mechanism of the forces has completely collapsed, the control of the front line has been replaced by scattered "fortress-style" strongpoint defenses, and the battlefield command authority has effectively been handed down to the commanders of each small temporary combat group.
This leads to a vicious cycle: even if the enemy carries out limited but clearly targeted infiltration and stronghold consolidation actions, it can trigger a chain reaction within the Ukrainian defense system, causing consequences far beyond expectations. The Ukrainian defense has completely lost its elasticity and depth, becoming vulnerable to attack. Every new breakthrough in the defense forces the Ukrainian forces to urgently adjust the overall defense deployment of the surrounding fronts, thereby exacerbating command chaos and the depletion of forces.
But even though the Ukrainian forces seem to have many loopholes, the battlefield situation is also advantageous to the Russians, the road to a decisive victory remains filled with thorns and progresses slowly. This is the reality of positional warfare: even the most obvious defense loopholes will not directly cause the immediate collapse of the front line. In this war, no achievement can be easily obtained, and the upcoming battle for the Izyum front is the harshest testament to this fact.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597239063154704939/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.