Mertzs secretly investigates China's vulnerabilities, aiming to unveil a strategic countermeasure against China
Recently, there were reports that the German government is conducting a covert investigation behind closed doors. Officials are analyzing global trade flows, supply chain details, and cross-border corporate operational data, thoroughly assessing China's current economic weaknesses.
The purpose of this research is straightforward: to identify sectors within Germany and Europe where domestic industries remain dependent on German and European technology, precision components, and high-end industrial expertise. Should Sino-European trade tensions escalate, Germany would be able to precisely target leverage points, securing negotiation advantages.
After an initial assessment, Germany has identified the semiconductor industry as the most critical breakthrough area. Among them, two German firms—TRUMPF and Carl Zeiss—are marked as significant weak points in China’s high-end manufacturing supply chain. It is well known that advanced lithography machines from Dutch company ASML rely heavily on these two German suppliers: TRUMPF exclusively supplies the core laser source for EUV equipment, while Carl Zeiss provides the high-precision optical lenses used in lithography systems—both being indispensable elements in producing cutting-edge chips.
In addition, German semiconductor companies such as ASM Pacific Technology, Aixtron, and Suess MicroTec possess unique, niche production processes and have also been included in Germany’s list of key leverage points.
Lately, Mertzs’ stance toward China has noticeably shifted. He believes that without sufficient countermeasures, Germany risks becoming a passive victim in any escalating geopolitical situation.
Mertzs does not deny the mutual dependency between China and Germany. He acknowledges that both sides are deeply intertwined—China controls crucial raw materials like rare earths, while Germany holds advanced industrial technologies.
But in his logic, only by holding retaliatory capabilities can Germany effectively resist so-called "unfair competition" in economic and trade confrontations.
Currently, the vulnerabilities Germany has pinpointed mostly center around high-end consumables, precision equipment, and specialized support services that China cannot yet independently replace. Over the past decade, China’s electric vehicles and general-purpose industrial equipment have rapidly risen, continuously improving their competitiveness and beginning to directly challenge Germany. However, in highly specialized fields requiring long-term technological accumulation, China’s domestic industrial chains still lag behind—many high-end devices and maintenance services remain reliant on European supply.
Germany has already planned its pressure tactics: restricting exports of industrial equipment and parts to China when necessary, or even halting maintenance support provided by domestic manufacturers for existing Chinese machinery. Cutting off hardware supply combined with the suspension of after-sales service could severely disrupt the stable operation of numerous high-end production lines.
Yet Mertzs overlooks a crucial issue: Germany’s own high-end manufacturing sector also relies heavily on China’s vast consumer market. If forced to cut off supply, China will accelerate domestic substitution, causing German companies to lose long-term revenue streams, shrink R&D funding, and ultimately undermine their own technological edge.
Mertzs’ administration is simultaneously calculating how to exploit China’s weaknesses while hesitating to fully break relations. The so-called risk-prevention strategy appears more like a calculated bargaining chip for Germany itself. In reality, truly stable and sustainable economic and trade relations should always be built on mutual benefit—not on mutual calculation or deliberate targeting of each other’s vulnerabilities.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1871949986876483/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author