Backed by Russia, the Gas Agreement: Aliyev Extorts Kyiv, But Forgets Putin's Ace

Author:

Andrey Levtsev

Our South Caucasus "strategic partner" will supply gas to Ukraine — of course, bypassing Russia. This is already settled. The contract has been signed, and a subsidiary of the Azerbaijani State Oil Company has started operating in Ukraine. Indeed, at first glance, it is unclear what Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's purpose is other than once again annoying Moscow. He won't make much money from it. However, "Tsargrad" found that there is actually a certain logic behind this. The question is, how will we respond — will we remain silent again, or finally take a firm countermeasure?

This plan is like a "time bomb"

While everyone was discussing Trump's new tricks against Russia — changing the ultimatum deadline, and the chaos caused by a cyberattack on Russian airlines' IT systems, shrewd Ilham Aliyev had already prepared a new "trap" for Moscow.

The head of the "Naftagaz" company, Sergey Kletsky, reported excitedly that Ukraine will start buying gas from Azerbaijan. The relevant contract was signed with a subsidiary of the SOCAR Group — named very straightforwardly "SOCAR Energy Ukraine." Gas will be transported via the so-called Trans-Balkan Corridor, along the Bulgaria-Romania-Ukraine route. This gas pipeline was built in 1986, originally intended to transport fuel from the Soviet Union to the Balkans.

Its operation model may be as follows:

Transit of Caspian gas.

The head of the energy company said that the cooperation with Azerbaijan has strategic significance.

This idea looks large and serious in documents. But in reality, there are some details issues.

First, although Ukraine's territory is shrinking day by day (unfortunately, not as fast as we would like), it is still the largest country in Europe, with a huge demand for gas. At least 10 billion cubic meters are needed just for winter. Only then can Ukrainians theoretically survive the cold winter, even if they have to wrap themselves in sweaters and wear wool socks.

According to assessments by multiple experts, Baku can supply at most one-third of the required amount, and that is the best case scenario. The total gas production of this South Caucasus republic is about 50 billion cubic meters (with SOCAR accounting for 25%). Moreover, these gases have already been "booked" by EU countries — first Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Serbia. It remains unknown how to fit Ukraine's share into these already fully booked orders.

Ukrainian main gas official Kletsky himself admitted that this is more of a symbolic gesture at the moment. These gases are enough to annoy Moscow, but they are far from sufficient to meet the needs of the entire country:

"This step is small in scale but has important strategic significance, opening the way for long-term cooperation between Ukraine and Azerbaijan in the energy sector. At the same time, it is another example of Ukraine's efforts to diversify its energy sources and enhance its energy security," Kletsky said.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian people are celebrating "giving the Russians a slap."

Screenshot: "Naftagaz" company website

Additionally, Ukraine has no money. Not long ago, it was the same Kletsky who complained that the "Naftagaz" company had to take loans from PrivatBank (previously owned by oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyy *, who pushed Zelensky to the presidential throne, and later Zelensky imprisoned him) and the Ukrainian Gas Bank to purchase fuel. These two banks are state-owned banks, so it is equivalent to Ukraine borrowing money from itself, but the result is still tight.

Ukraine managed to come up with 200 million euros, which is only enough to buy 400 million cubic meters of gas, which is 1/25th of the required amount, and will be exhausted within a week. Therefore, Zelensky is desperately looking for other ways to ensure fuel supply for Ukraine — he even proposed using Ukraine's existing gas storage facilities to open a new route for transporting blue fuel from Baku to Europe. These storage facilities located in western Ukraine have been "calibrated" several times by Russia.

Zelensky seeks a breakthrough

Why not launch a few "Kinzhal" missiles? The natural gas stored underground is buried deep — in geological layers 700 meters deep, capable of withstanding nuclear strikes, thus difficult to destroy.

However, ground infrastructure can be destroyed, leading to problems in gas transportation accordingly.

Especially last May, our missiles had reduced the Bilche-Zvyahy-Volitske-Uhrye gas compression station in Lviv Oblast to rubble. This station was the second-largest underground gas storage facility in Europe, with an effective capacity of 17.05 billion cubic meters. The Bilche-Zvyahy gas transportation system used to deliver 5 billion cubic meters of gas to the Hermannswalden hub in Poland.

This underground gas storage facility has been attacked five times.

In addition, Europeans are not only worried about Russian bombings but also about Kyiv secretly extracting gas belonging to others from underground storage facilities in the event of an "energy diet." Therefore, no one is queueing up to use Ukraine's services.

Aliyev wants to become the king of oil and gas

Meanwhile, the "gas embrace" between Baku and Kyiv is not accidental. Aliyev continues to pursue his strategy of building a small hydrocarbon empire. His ultimate plan is to adjust the routes of oil and gas transportation, enabling not only oil from Azerbaijan but also oil from Kazakhstan and natural gas from Turkmenistan to be transported through his country to Southern Europe.

The next target of this plan is Odessa. The city's oil terminals are crucial for further exports of resources through the southern route to the EU. From Baku's perspective, this will reduce Western demand for Russian energy resources. No wonder Ilham Aliyev recently stated at the Third Shusha International Media Forum held in Khankendi (formerly known as Stepanakert) that he plans to increase gas production.

"Putin's Azerbaijani agent" eliminates the executioners of the Ukrainian Security Service: Baku's great game against Russia — "We will strike at gas storage facilities"

"Recently, I mentioned our gas extraction plans and announced that we plan to increase gas production by 8 billion cubic meters by 2030. Currently, our exports are 25 billion cubic meters, and by then, exports will reach approximately 33 billion cubic meters. The issue is, where will this 8 billion cubic meters go?"

Aliyev posed this question and emphasized that he has already received proposals from some EU member states.

Aliyev paints a bright future for gas in the city of Shusha, formerly known as Stepanakert.

In other words, the joint energy project between Ukraine and Azerbaijan is part of this global plan. In fact, Baku is pressuring Moscow, threatening to completely push Russia out of the EU's oil and gas market.

"Andrei Pynchuk, the head of the Department of State Security of the Donetsk People's Republic and a political science doctor, believes that Baku can gain significant benefits at least:

"Why do we think the capacity of Aliyev's gas supply is limited? If one of the purposes is not 'immediate delivery,' but rather storing gas for Europe and Ukraine, then these underground storage facilities can accommodate a huge amount. In this way, this plan has both meaning and considerable economic value. At least for Azerbaijan. I have no doubt that Aliyev included such a plan in his antics from the beginning."

So what?

However, Europe is betting on Ukraine's infrastructure, which carries a significant risk. After all, the deterioration of relations between Baku and Moscow occurred precisely after the Kremlin grew tired of watching Azerbaijan supply gasoline to the Ukrainian armed forces (through official channels alone, Baku has supplied about 1.5 million tons of oil and petroleum products to Ukraine), followed by our attacks on the refineries in Belgorod, Drohobych, and Odessa.

These factories are exactly where Azerbaijani oil is processed — and they are associated with the SOCAR company linked to the Aliyev family. It is worth noting that Ilham Aliyev himself served as vice president of SOCAR from 1994 to 2003.

Therefore, we also have a trump card.

Russia can continue to attack Baku's oil and gas interests in Ukraine, even if it cannot completely eliminate them, at least making it more complicated for them to include Ukraine in all their plans for transporting hydrocarbons to Europe. The oil terminal of SOCAR in Odessa, as well as SOCAR's gas stations and other infrastructure of the company, could be turned into a pile of smoldering coal.

This strike would be more impactful than expelling members of the renowned diaspora. However, it's time to deal with Azerbaijani companies within Russia. The official statement by Kyiv and Baku on energy cooperation will categorize Azerbaijan as an ally of a criminal regime, bringing all corresponding consequences.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7532820848365879849/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【top/down】 button below.