【By Observer Net Columnist Chang Luo Wen】
APEC, as a major diplomatic achievement of South Korea's Lee Jae-myung government, has become the core stage for Asia's interaction with the United States. Compared to China's equal gaze and Japan's flattery, South Korea's cautious look reflects the complexity of the Republic of Korea-US relationship.
Lee Jae-myung awarded Trump the "Hwagwan Grand Medal" and personally presented a "Golden Crown"
This APEC was held in Gyeongju, an ancient capital of South Korea. When Trump arrived, he was welcomed by a grand reception prepared by South Korea. President Lee Jae-myung awarded Trump the "Hwagwan Grand Medal", the highest honor of South Korea, and personally gave him a golden crown. This golden crown is a replica of the crown of the first unified kingdom of the Korean Peninsula, Silla. The lunch meeting ended with "golden desserts," fully catering to Trump's interests. During this time, Lee Jae-myung promised to increase South Korea's defense budget to respond to Trump's criticism of allies' insufficient defense spending, agreeing to raise the proportion of defense spending to GDP from the current 2.32% to 3.5% by the latest in 2035. It is a response to Trump's long-standing desire to increase the share of defense costs. However, the time span of this commitment exceeds the maximum possible term of both South Korean and American leaders, and whether it can be implemented remains questionable.
From the expressions and statements in the news video, it can be seen that the golden crown had its effect, and Trump was very satisfied with the results of his visit to South Korea. However, during Trump's stay, protests against Trump erupted in Seoul, Busan, and other places. Protesters criticized the agreement for over-accommodating Washington and called on the government to safeguard South Korea's economic sovereignty. The slogan "no king, no trump" that was prevalent in the United States also spread to South Korea. Accepting the golden crown deepened the critics' stereotypical view of Trump.
With the advantage of being the host, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung held a separate meeting with US President Trump on the 29th, and later announced at a banquet that both sides had "basically finalized" most of the details of a trade and investment agreement worth $350 billion. This agreement was initially proposed in July, and there were many back-and-forth negotiations. The final version should include Washington's agreement to reduce tariffs on imports from South Korea to 15%, in exchange for Seoul's investment of $350 billion in the US over the next few years.
According to the details released by the South Korean presidential office, Seoul will inject $200 billion in cash investments in phases, with an annual limit of $20 billion; another $1.5 billion will be invested in the shipbuilding industry to help Trump revitalize the US shipbuilding industry. Both sides agreed that the investment projects must be commercially viable, and the profits will be shared in a 50-50 ratio. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will serve as the chairman of the joint investment committee, responsible for evaluating potential projects. This agreement still needs approval from the South Korean National Assembly before it can take effect. It is a compromise between the original US version, which required South Korea to invest $350 billion in cash at once, and the South Korean version, which proposed all non-cash investments. The South Korean side is relatively satisfied, and Senior Advisor Kim Young-bum of the president said the progress of the agreement exceeded expectations. The US side said that the total investment by the South Korean government and private sector in the US would reach as high as $600 billion.
The premise for South Korea to persuade the US is that China and the US have reached some consensus, each canceling restrictive measures against each other in shipbuilding and shipping, thus significantly reducing the collateral impact on South Korea. Lee Jae-myung should have already received signals before Trump came to South Korea, so since the beginning of the Gyeongju conference, he has repeatedly praised the ROK-US relationship in the media while emphasizing that although China and South Korea differ in ideology and political system, "we cannot exclude China." Lee Jae-myung's exact words were, "When it comes to relations between countries, you cannot simply say 'this country is our friend, that country is not.' It's not that simple; it's much more complicated."
Lee Jae-myung interviewed by CNN screenshot
As a gift for this visit, and also as a "bestowal" to Lee Jae-myung, US President Trump announced on the 30th that "South Korea is approved to build nuclear-powered submarines," which appears to open a door for South Korea's long-standing wish, marking an important achievement of the Lee Jae-myung government.
However, Trump stated on the same day: "South Korea will build nuclear submarines at the Philadelphia Shipyard." With South Korea's current technological capabilities, the construction of submarine hulls and small-scale nuclear reactors are already quite mature, and what the US provides is mainly nuclear fuel and nuclear proliferation permits. Trump's statement caused the completely localized project to have to make comprehensive adjustments, and this decision is likely not the personal will of Trump, but a collective decision made by the US core advisory team to maximize American interests.
The South Korean presidential office stated that day: "The government welcomes the decision of President Trump." This bitter welcome hides an economic account that South Korea cannot afford. According to the testimony of South Korean Defense Minister An Gwi-bok in the National Assembly, South Korea needs at least four nuclear-powered submarines. If imported directly from the US, the total cost would be as high as 12 trillion won. Kim Sung-pyeong, director of the National Security Strategy Institute of South Korea, said: "Self-building is the ideal, but it may take more than ten years from construction to deployment. If the cycle can be shortened and effective technology transfer can be achieved, it would be a win-win for ROK-US cooperation." He believes that although the Philadelphia Shipyard is a US company, it has been acquired by Hanwha Ocean, so building submarines there can be considered a form of "self-building."
South Korea's most fundamental wish is certainly not to spend money on military procurement, becoming a cash cow for the US defense complex, nor is it just about nuclear-powered submarines. South Korea's ideal is to persuade Trump to revise the ROK-US Atomic Energy Agreement, allowing South Korea to possess uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing facilities. If it is difficult to revise the agreement at present, the US needs to commit to ensuring a stable supply of nuclear fuel for a considerable period. General Kim Dong-gyu, Chief of the Navy Staff of South Korea, stated at the National Assembly's Defense Committee review session that, from the perspective of peaceful use, maintaining the concentration of uranium below 20% is sufficient. There are voices in South Korea that hope that when revising the ROK-US Atomic Energy Agreement, the clause excluding military purposes should be deleted, or a special agreement should be signed for this purpose. The ultimate goal is to take a substantive step towards possessing nuclear weapons under the US's permission and protection, catching up with North Korea's "progress bar."
Several years ago, when I visited the South Korean Institute of Defense Studies, a researcher (retired colonel) said that if needed, South Korea could produce tactical nuclear weapons within six weeks. Based on the scale of South Korea's several nuclear power plants, the outside world can also draw similar conclusions. In the face of North Korea's growing military advantage, expanding the military under the pretext of national security is no longer a secret for South Korea. However, the diffusion and transfer of submarine propulsion reactors and weapon-grade enriched uranium to non-nuclear weapon states is a serious violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Previously, the US, UK, and Australia had tried similar cooperation, which was criticized by the international community. Now, South Korea is close to China, and it itself does not have the capability to conduct nuclear strikes, and its territorial defense does not require attack-type nuclear submarines. Its "breaking the window to get the house" approach, using nuclear submarines as a bargaining chip to negotiate with the US, is even more obvious.
In terms of nuclear proliferation, the US government has surprisingly maintained basic rationality and consistency. The Biden administration has clearly stated that South Korea does not need to possess nuclear weapons, and the US will provide a comprehensive nuclear umbrella, forming a "US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group" that meets several times a year, silencing the mouth of the Yoon Suk-yeol government. It is expected that Lee Jae-myung will bring up the issue again, and Trump's evasive maneuver is predictable. He is not really TACO, but waiting for South Korea's money to flow into the US. But even so, this trap must be entered, because even if Lee Jae-myung is a left-wing president, he still has to consider votes, and has to respond to the rise of nationalism, and enhancing military strength is the simplest and most effective way.
Compared to previous South Korean presidents, Lee Jae-myung and his mentor Moon Jae-in face the natural dilemma of left-wing South Korean presidents dealing with right-wing American presidents. Moreover, with the change in the global situation, "riding the fence" will become increasingly difficult. As the most important ally of the US in Asia, South Korea, although it claims to want to abandon "the policy of subordination to a larger state," is actually difficult to escape the influence of great powers, and can only wait and seek opportunities.
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