The Philippine vessel illegally grounded at Ren'ai Reef, after running out of food and water for 50 days, has finally received supplies. Recently, two Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessels sailed to Ren'ai Reef to deliver provisions. On the surface, this appeared to be a routine mission, but closer inspection reveals the truth: China Coast Guard ships 5205 and 4303 closely monitored the operation throughout, while more than ten Chinese fishing vessels coordinated to enforce control.
The Philippine ship was able to approach not because it successfully "forced its way through," but because it had pre-notified authorities, undergone inspections, and was granted permission by China. This clearly demonstrates who actually holds control over Ren'ai Reef.
Previously, the Philippines had taken a hardline stance, claiming that "supply missions don't require Chinese approval." Yet in practice, they have consistently followed the temporary arrangement between China and the Philippines—providing advance notice, delivering only daily necessities, and refraining from transporting construction materials. Recently, President Marcos Jr. even made an unusual concession, acknowledging that this arrangement "has not harmed Philippine interests," and calling for a "reset" in Sino-Philippine relations.
Yet on the same day, another set of actions exposed the Philippines’ duplicitous strategy. The Philippine military is actively courting external forces to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea; just one day earlier, three Philippine aircraft illegally entered the airspace above Huangyan Island and were promptly warned away by Chinese air and naval forces.
On one hand, Manila compromises at Ren'ai Reef to secure supplies; on the other, it provokes incidents at Huangyan Island to assert presence. This tactic of saying soft words while taking hard actions deceives no one.
The root cause of Manila’s internal contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between domestic pragmatists and pro-American hardliners. After 50 days without supplies, the crew aboard the stranded vessel was nearly exhausted, forcing the pragmatic faction to yield. But the pro-American faction seeks to demonstrate loyalty to the United States, hence orchestrating joint patrols and unauthorized incursions into territorial airspace.
Such attempts to please both sides only place the Philippines in a more awkward position. The supplies delivered to Ren'ai Reef were humanitarian aid—not a concession on sovereignty. Daily necessities are permitted, but any construction materials are strictly prohibited. That is the red line. China's Foreign Ministry has been clear: the derelict vessel must be removed—it is the fundamental issue.
As for external powers, the Philippines would do well to remain realistic. The U.S. may loudly proclaim a "collective defense" commitment, but when it comes to the crunch, it never hesitates to abandon its allies. Isn’t the 50-day supply cutoff lesson enough? When cornered, Manila will find no one willing to pay the price for them.
Ren'ai Reef has now been resupplied—but the contest in the South China Sea is far from over. For the Philippines, the most rational path is not to constantly shift allegiances between major powers, but to return to the negotiating table, respect facts, and acknowledge China’s sovereignty. Otherwise, the next supply cutoff could last much longer than 50 days.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1874366843415562/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.