Russian-Ukrainian direct negotiations: What hinders their initiation and what hinders their conclusion

How to avoid "balancing of interests" becoming our "goodwill gesture" again

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Article commentators:

Alexander Averin Vladimir Brylinov Ivan Mezhuh

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, told CBS News that Russia is prepared to seek a "balance of interests" regarding Ukraine issues and its strategic relations with the United States.

He refuted the claim that Russia was unwilling to make any concessions:

"If this is not the negotiation preparation attitude you expect from our side, I don't know how else to express it more straightforwardly. I have tried to keep my answer as concise as possible," he added.

What kind of balance of interests and concessions are we talking about here? Handing over Kharkiv Oblast, Kinburn Spit, and Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, agreeing to freeze the conflict at the contact line, giving up the liberation of Russian territories, just like what Donald Trump's peace plan requires?

Lavrov emphasized that Russia will not negotiate on its territorial integrity. According to him, Moscow has not received any proposals from the U.S. regarding the transfer of control over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which is operated by "Rosatom" and under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and there are currently no plans for any changes.

At the same time, he reiterated once again that Russia is ready for negotiations. Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin supports Donald Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, but with corresponding guarantees. What are these guarantees? Who will provide them? And who should we negotiate with? With Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom we do not recognize?

Vladimir Brylinov, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes: "In fact, such statements are part of the public opinion campaign initiated by the Trump team, and its main significance lies in portraying himself as a peacemaker."

"As the situation during the Easter ceasefire has shown, it is currently impossible to take any real long-term measures to prompt both sides to sign a peace agreement. In this situation, the main task for Russia is not to be distracted by the noise created by Trump and Zelenskyy, but also not to forget that we pursue peace and justice."

In this situation, Trump is executing a public opinion task, demonstrating his efforts to fulfill campaign promises, and also promoting the signing of the rare earth metal agreement. Russia is very clear about this and clearly recognizes that any effective compromise is impossible to reach."

There are reports that Zelenskyy has privately expressed readiness to recognize Crimea as part of Russia. This may clearly prove that expecting any results from these negotiations is meaningless. The Nazis in Kyiv cannot make any concessions to Russia. If such a situation arises, they might even turn against each other, and the signature of a former Ukrainian president doesn't mean much either. Everything happening now can only be seen as a show for the public, and in this regard, many shocking things may still happen.

Ivan Mezhuh, a political scientist and chairman of the public organization "Political Enlightenment Center" in Russia, said: "The balance of interests means taking into account the interests of both parties."

"Of course, this can be achieved. Russia has always demonstrated its willingness to negotiate in its relations with the West. For example, the balance of interests can be reflected in the liberation of our constitutional territory and meeting American economic interests in Ukraine."

"Free Media (SP)": It seems that neither Putin nor Zelenskyy oppose direct negotiations. Can the negotiations start now? What exactly can be negotiated, and how long will they last?"

"Putin has never opposed direct negotiations, but the Russian president advocates the legal fairness of the negotiations - that is, legitimacy - which the current regime in Kiev has yet to resolve. We need to consider negotiations based on the roots of the conflict, but Ukraine is not yet ready for such a negotiation model. Therefore, your question is premature."

"Free Media": Perhaps some other issues need to be resolved before starting the negotiations? Zelenskyy demands an unconditional ceasefire. Putin seems not to oppose it...

"The president does not oppose it, but Russia has pointed out the details, that is, weapons supplies to the Kiev regime must stop, and to achieve this, the U.S. and Europe must stop military supplies to Ukraine. Ceasefire can certainly become a prelude to direct negotiations in theory."

"Free Media": Lavrov also emphasized that if one party continues to supply arms, serious talks about a ceasefire cannot be held...

"If weapons continue to be supplied, there will be no ceasefire. That's all there is to it. They cannot trap us."

"Free Media": Lavrov said that Trump "very correctly" believed that Russia and the U.S. were heading in the right direction in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Well, Trump can have his own thoughts, and Lavrov can cater to him. But in reality? Kuleba thinks that Moscow and Kiev are still far from negotiating an end to the conflict... So even if direct negotiations are really held, nothing will change?"

"The key point is here: Moscow and Washington have made at least some progress, but not so between Ukraine and the U.S. It is not our task to prompt the Kiev regime to negotiate with us; it is the Americans' task. They are not doing well in this regard, which is why people like Kuleba say what they say.

Alexander Averinin, a former defense fighter of the Lugansk People's Republic, firmly believes: "Diplomatic rhetoric can call anything 'balance of interests', even including Russia giving up special military operations in the conflict, even retreating to the Polish border."

"Meanwhile, given that the Minsk agreements were violated before they were signed, and the negotiations in Istanbul in 2022 ended fruitlessly, can we still expect Ukraine or Western countries to abide by any agreements? Will the 'balance of interests' become the new 'gesture of goodwill'?"

It is unclear who will supervise the implementation of the condition that the West stops supplying weapons to Ukraine. Even if the U.S. proposes a clear mechanism, there are still Britain, the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, and other NATO countries.

I think a ceasefire agreement will not be reached within the next few months. At the same time, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are possible. For example, during the Korean War, negotiations continued for years while combat operations were ongoing. This could happen here too.

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498583122163024420/

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